Modeling dynamic volatility under uncertain environment with fuzziness and randomness

The problem related to predicting dynamic volatility in financial market plays a crucial role in many contexts. We build a new generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BN-S) model suitable for uncertain environment with fuzziness and randomness. This new model considers the delay phenomenon between price fluctuation and volatility changes, solves the problem of the lack of long-range dependence of classic models. Through the experiment of Dow Jones futures price, we find that compared with the classical model, this method effectively combines the uncertain environmental characteristics, which makes the prediction of dynamic volatility has more ideal performance

Stochastic volatility modeling of high-frequency CSI 300 index and dynamic jump prediction driven by machine learning

This paper models stochastic process of price time series of CSI 300 index in Chinese financial market, analyzes volatility characteristics of intraday high-frequency price data. In the new generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model, the lag caused by asynchrony of market information is considered, and the problem of lack of long-term dependence is solved. To speed up the valuation process, several machine learning and deep learning algorithms are used to estimate parameter and evaluate forecast results. Tracking historical jumps of different magnitudes offers promising avenues for simulating dynamic price processes and predicting future jumps. Numerical results show that the deterministic component of stochastic volatility processes would always be captured over short and longer-term windows. Research finding could be suitable for influence investors and regulators interested in predicting market dynamics based on realized volatility

Imprints of Sagittarius accretion event: Young O-rich stars and discontinuous chemical evolution in Milky Way disc

The Milky Way has undergone significant transformations in its early history, characterised by violent mergers and the accretion of satellite galaxies. Among these events, the infall of the satellite galaxy Gaia-Enceladus/Sausage is recognised as the last major merger event, fundamentally altering the evolution of the Milky Way and shaping its chemo-dynamical structure. However, recent observational evidence suggests that the Milky Way remains undergone notable events of star formation in the past 4 Gyr, which is thought to be triggered by the perturbations from Sagittarius dwarf galaxy (Sgr). Here we report chemical signatures of the Sgr accretion event in the past 4 Gyr, using the [Fe/H] and [O/Fe] ratios in the thin disc, which is reported for the first time. It reveals that the previously discovered V-shape structure of age-[Fe/H] relation varies across different Galactic locations and has rich substructures. Interestingly, we discover a discontinuous structure at z$_{\rm max}$ $<$ 0.3 kpc, interrupted by a recent burst of star formation from 4 Gyr to 2 Gyr ago. In this episode, we find a significant rise in oxygen abundance leading to a distinct [O/Fe] gradient, contributing to the formation of young O-rich stars. Combined with the simulated star formation history and chemical abundance of Sgr, we suggest that the Sgr is an important actor in the discontinuous chemical evolution of the Milky Way disc.Comment: 17 pages, 15 figures. Under review at Nature Communication

A mutation in the endonuclease domain of mouse MLH3 reveals novel roles for MutLγ during crossover formation in meiotic prophase I

During meiotic prophase I, double-strand breaks (DSBs) initiate homologous recombination leading to non-crossovers (NCOs) and crossovers (COs). In mouse, 10% of DSBs are designated to become COs, primarily through a pathway dependent on the MLH1-MLH3 heterodimer (MutLγ). Mlh3 contains an endonuclease domain that is critical for resolving COs in yeast. We generated a mouse (Mlh3DN/DN) harboring a mutation within this conserved domain that is predicted to generate a protein that is catalytically inert. Mlh3DN/DN males, like fully null Mlh3-/- males, have no spermatozoa and are infertile, yet spermatocytes have grossly normal DSBs and synapsis events in early prophase I. Unlike Mlh3-/- males, mutation of the endonuclease domain within MLH3 permits normal loading and frequency of MutLγ in pachynema. However, key DSB repair factors (RAD51) and mediators of CO pathway choice (BLM helicase) persist into pachynema in Mlh3DN/DN males, indicating a temporal delay in repair events and revealing a mechanism by which alternative DSB repair pathways may be selected. While Mlh3DN/DN spermatocytes retain only 22% of wildtype chiasmata counts, this frequency is greater than observed in Mlh3-/- males (10%), suggesting that the allele may permit partial endonuclease activity, or that other pathways can generate COs from these MutLγ-defined repair intermediates in Mlh3DN/DN males. Double mutant mice homozygous for the Mlh3DN/DN and Mus81-/- mutations show losses in chiasmata close to those observed in Mlh3-/- males, indicating that the MUS81-EME1-regulated crossover pathway can only partially account for the increased residual chiasmata in Mlh3DN/DN spermatocytes. Our data demonstrate that mouse spermatocytes bearing the MLH1-MLH3DN/DN complex display the proper loading of factors essential for CO resolution (MutSγ, CDK2, HEI10, MutLγ). Despite these functions, mice bearing the Mlh3DN/DN allele show defects in the repair of meiotic recombination intermediates and a loss of most chiasmata

Mammalian BTBD12 (SLX4) Protects against Genomic Instability during Mammalian Spermatogenesis

The mammalian ortholog of yeast Slx4, BTBD12, is an ATM substrate that functions as a scaffold for various DNA repair activities. Mutations of human BTBD12 have been reported in a new sub-type of Fanconi anemia patients. Recent studies have implicated the fly and worm orthologs, MUS312 and HIM-18, in the regulation of meiotic crossovers arising from double-strand break (DSB) initiating events and also in genome stability prior to meiosis. Using a Btbd12 mutant mouse, we analyzed the role of BTBD12 in mammalian gametogenesis. BTBD12 localizes to pre-meiotic spermatogonia and to meiotic spermatocytes in wildtype males. Btbd12 mutant mice have less than 15% normal spermatozoa and are subfertile. Loss of BTBD12 during embryogenesis results in impaired primordial germ cell proliferation and increased apoptosis, which reduces the spermatogonial pool in the early postnatal testis. During prophase I, DSBs initiate normally in Btbd12 mutant animals. However, DSB repair is delayed or impeded, resulting in persistent γH2AX and RAD51, and the choice of repair pathway may be altered, resulting in elevated MLH1/MLH3 focus numbers at pachynema. The result is an increase in apoptosis through prophase I and beyond. Unlike yeast Slx4, therefore, BTBD12 appears to function in meiotic prophase I, possibly during the recombination events that lead to the production of crossovers. In line with its expected regulation by ATM kinase, BTBD12 protein is reduced in the testis of Atm−/− males, and Btbd12 mutant mice exhibit increased genomic instability in the form of elevated blood cell micronucleus formation similar to that seen in Atm−/− males. Taken together, these data indicate that BTBD12 functions throughout gametogenesis to maintain genome stability, possibly by co-ordinating repair processes and/or by linking DNA repair events to the cell cycle via ATM

Association of preadmission metformin use and mortality in patients with sepsis and diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies

Abstract Background Recent studies have reported that preadmission metformin users had lower mortality than non-metformin users in patients with sepsis and diabetes mellitus; however, these results are still controversial. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of published observational cohort data to determine the association between preadmission metformin use and mortality in septic adult patients with diabetes mellitus. Methods The MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL databases were searched from their inception to September 30, 2018. Cohort studies that evaluated the use of metformin in septic adult patients with diabetes mellitus were included. The quality of outcomes was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). The inverse variance method with random effects modelling was used to calculate the pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs. Results Five observational cohort studies (1282 patients) that were all judged as having a low risk of bias were included. In this meta-analysis, metformin use was associated with a significantly lower mortality rate (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.43–0.79, P = 0.001). Conclusions This meta-analysis indicated an association between metformin use prior to admission and lower mortality in septic adult patients with diabetes mellitus. This finding suggested that the possible effect of metformin should be evaluated in future clinical trials