Disaster Mythology and Availability Cascades

Sociological research conducted in the aftermath of natural disasters has uncovered a number of “disaster myths” – widely shared misconceptions about typical post-disaster human behavior. This paper discusses the possibility that perpetuation of disaster mythology reflects an “availability cascade,” defined in prior scholarship as a “self-reinforcing process of collective belief formation by which an expressed perception triggers a chain reaction that gives the perception increasing plausibility through its rising availability in public discourse.” (Kuran and Sunstein 1999). Framing the spread of disaster mythology as an availability cascade suggests that certain tools may be useful in halting the myths’ continued perpetuation. These tools include changing the legal and social incentives of so-called “availability entrepreneurs” – those principally responsible for beginning and perpetuating the cascade, as well as insulating decision-makers from political pressures generated by the availability cascade. This paper evaluates the potential effectiveness of these and other solutions for countering disaster mythology. Las investigaciones sociológicas realizadas tras los desastres naturales han hecho evidentes una serie de “mitos del desastre”, conceptos erróneos ampliamente compartidos sobre el comportamiento humano típico tras un desastre. Este artículo analiza la posibilidad de que la perpetuación de los mitos del desastre refleje una “cascada de disponibilidad”, definida en estudios anteriores como un “proceso de auto-refuerzo de la formación de una creencia colectiva, a través del que una percepción expresada produce una reacción en cadena que hace que la percepción sea cada vez más verosímil, a través de una mayor presencia en el discurso público” (Kuran y Sunstein 1999). Enmarcar la propagación de los mitos del desastre como una cascada de disponibilidad sugiere que ciertas herramientas pueden ser útiles para parar la continua perpetuación de los mitos. Estas herramientas incluyen el cambio de los incentivos legales y sociales de los llamados “emprendedores de la disponibilidad”, los principales responsables del inicio y la perpetuación de la cascada, además del aislamiento de quienes toman las decisiones de las presiones políticas generadas por la cascada de disponibilidad. Este artículo evalúa la efectividad potencial de estas y otras soluciones para contrarrestar los mitos del desastre

The Method of Combinatorial Telescoping

We present a method for proving q-series identities by combinatorial telescoping, in the sense that one can transform a bijection or a classification of combinatorial objects into a telescoping relation. We shall illustrate this method by giving a combinatorial proof of Watson's identity which implies the Rogers-Ramanujan identities.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures; to appear in J. Combin. Theory Ser.

Smart Growth in Dumb Places: Sustainability, Disaster, and the Future of the American City

One of the many lessons of the recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan is that we cannot mitigate disaster risk through building codes and other structural solutions alone. Location is key to a community’s natural hazard vulnerability. Consequently, the most far-reaching and important question for disaster mitigation today is where we will channel the growth that will be needed to accommodate our expanding population. Yet, both environmental scholars and policymakers are promoting sustainability initiatives that will channel our country’s future growth into existing urban areas that are already extremely vulnerable to disaster. Indeed, many of these policies - and the legal tools used to implement them - are channeling growth, not only into particularly vulnerable cities, but into the riskiest areas of those cities. This Article is the first to identify and explore this critical tension between disaster mitigation and current sustainability policies