Equations of States in Statistical Learning for a Nonparametrizable and Regular Case

Many learning machines that have hierarchical structure or hidden variables are now being used in information science, artificial intelligence, and bioinformatics. However, several learning machines used in such fields are not regular but singular statistical models, hence their generalization performance is still left unknown. To overcome these problems, in the previous papers, we proved new equations in statistical learning, by which we can estimate the Bayes generalization loss from the Bayes training loss and the functional variance, on the condition that the true distribution is a singularity contained in a learning machine. In this paper, we prove that the same equations hold even if a true distribution is not contained in a parametric model. Also we prove that, the proposed equations in a regular case are asymptotically equivalent to the Takeuchi information criterion. Therefore, the proposed equations are always applicable without any condition on the unknown true distribution

A Widely Applicable Bayesian Information Criterion

A statistical model or a learning machine is called regular if the map taking a parameter to a probability distribution is one-to-one and if its Fisher information matrix is always positive definite. If otherwise, it is called singular. In regular statistical models, the Bayes free energy, which is defined by the minus logarithm of Bayes marginal likelihood, can be asymptotically approximated by the Schwarz Bayes information criterion (BIC), whereas in singular models such approximation does not hold. Recently, it was proved that the Bayes free energy of a singular model is asymptotically given by a generalized formula using a birational invariant, the real log canonical threshold (RLCT), instead of half the number of parameters in BIC. Theoretical values of RLCTs in several statistical models are now being discovered based on algebraic geometrical methodology. However, it has been difficult to estimate the Bayes free energy using only training samples, because an RLCT depends on an unknown true distribution. In the present paper, we define a widely applicable Bayesian information criterion (WBIC) by the average log likelihood function over the posterior distribution with the inverse temperature $1/\log n$, where $n$ is the number of training samples. We mathematically prove that WBIC has the same asymptotic expansion as the Bayes free energy, even if a statistical model is singular for and unrealizable by a statistical model. Since WBIC can be numerically calculated without any information about a true distribution, it is a generalized version of BIC onto singular statistical models.Comment: 30 page

Statistical Learning Theory of Quasi-Regular Cases

Many learning machines such as normal mixtures and layered neural networks are not regular but singular statistical models, because the map from a parameter to a probability distribution is not one-to-one. The conventional statistical asymptotic theory can not be applied to such learning machines because the likelihood function can not be approximated by any normal distribution. Recently, new statistical theory has been established based on algebraic geometry and it was clarified that the generalization and training errors are determined by two birational invariants, the real log canonical threshold and the singular fluctuation. However, their concrete values are left unknown. In the present paper, we propose a new concept, a quasi-regular case in statistical learning theory. A quasi-regular case is not a regular case but a singular case, however, it has the same property as a regular case. In fact, we prove that, in a quasi-regular case, two birational invariants are equal to each other, resulting that the symmetry of the generalization and training errors holds. Moreover, the concrete values of two birational invariants are explicitly obtained, the quasi-regular case is useful to study statistical learning theory

Bayesian Free Energy of Deep ReLU Neural Network in Overparametrized Cases

In many research fields in artificial intelligence, it has been shown that deep neural networks are useful to estimate unknown functions on high dimensional input spaces. However, their generalization performance is not yet completely clarified from the theoretical point of view because they are nonidentifiable and singular learning machines. Moreover, a ReLU function is not differentiable, to which algebraic or analytic methods in singular learning theory cannot be applied. In this paper, we study a deep ReLU neural network in overparametrized cases and prove that the Bayesian free energy, which is equal to the minus log marginal likelihoodor the Bayesian stochastic complexity, is bounded even if the number of layers are larger than necessary to estimate an unknown data-generating function. Since the Bayesian generalization error is equal to the increase of the free energy as a function of a sample size, our result also shows that the Bayesian generalization error does not increase even if a deep ReLU neural network is designed to be sufficiently large or in an opeverparametrized state.Comment: 20pages, 2figur