The shifting sands in Afghanistan

With Mullah Mansour’s killing, much will now depend on the contours of the new Taliban leadership, and the extent of control Pakistan exerts over it Three major developments during the last 10 days are likely to have significant implications on the future of the Afghan peace process — the unsuccessful conclusion of the Afghan Quadrilateral Coordination Group’s (QCG) talks in Islamabad, the U.S. Congress’s conditions on Pakistan to do more on Afghanistan to receive any further American aid, and the killing of Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour in Balochistan by an American drone

Is America’s Trump, South Asia’s loss?

The victory of Donald Trump was not anticipated in most of South Asia. But here he is, as the next American president. While some people here are in shock and others are demonizing him, we need to coldly calculate what his victory means for us. From Afghanistan to Myanmar, American engagement has been significant for the region in recent years, despite the surge and withdrawal. Outside India, the US still remains one of the favourite destinations for our students and as an economic opportunity. There is a sizeable South Asian diaspora in the US from all over this region and depending on their roots, their reaction has been mixed to him. Trump’s views on religion and immigration have created a stir in their perceptions of America

NIAS Strategic Forecast # 21: US-Pakistan Relations: What has changed? What hasn't? And what is unlikely to?

Trump’s New Year tweet on ͔͕January ͖͔͕͜ was almost an ultimatum asking Pakistan to take certain actions towards Afghanistan and the militants groups in the Af-Pak region. The American threat of "do more" is not a new one; during the last few years, one could see a trend and a déjà vu in the US threats towards Pakistan and the response by the latter. The Trump administration issued a similar threat a few months earlier, followed by attempting to work with Pakistan "one last time". However, the threat issued by Trump through a tweet seems to be different. There was a follow up action to the Trump threat; the US administration announced suspending the aid across-the-board. How far will the US administration go this time in forcing Pakistan to do more? What has changed? And what has not? And what is not likely to

The Rise of Think-Tanks in India

Complementing the Foreign Policy Establishment - The Rise of Think-Tanks in India Suhasini Haidar in her recent commentary (South Block in the Shade) in The Hindu has highlighted an interesting foreign policy phenomenon in India – the rise of think-tanks. Though she sees it as a factor in checking the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) from being “India’s primary interlocutor for the world,” many working on foreign policy have been asking for an effective role by the think-tanks with quality inputs to the Establishment

IS in South Asia: Blessing in disguise?

The rise of Islamic State poses a great threat to South Asia, but also provides the region with a rare opportunity. A collective threat by a non-State actor to the entire region may mean the countries will rise to meet the threat collectively. This commentary looks into the nature of the threat and a possible response – individually and collectively – through and outside the SAARC process

Pakistan’s corridor of uncertainty

The CPEC could heighten regional disparities within Pakistan, and even enable China to step up trade with India The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor became operational during the second week of November 2016. Pakistan’s prime minister, chief of army staff and other senior officials along with some Chinese were in Gwadar, witnessing the departure of the first shipment from the port, after having arrived there through different routes from Kashgar and from within Pakistan. ‘Game-changer’ is the phrase being used by many in Pakistan to describe the $45-billion CPEC. The pace at which the project progressed despite political controversies deserves admiration: the Chinese and the Pakistanis went ahead with the corridor within a period of two years

Return to the Durand Line

The recent clashes at the Torkham crossing on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border reflect a deeper bilateral disconnect between the two neighbours. The violent clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan on the Torkham border crossing in June seem to have ended — but not the political issue, security tensions and the larger bilateral differences between the two countries. Though the clashes in Torkham were triggered by the construction of a border post by Pakistan on its side, the border tensions are a symptom of a larger bilateral malaise. Even on its Iran border, Pakistan has planned to construct a border post in Taftan. Though Taftan is not as violent as Torkham, this border crossing is also known for the illegal movement of people and goods. So is Chaman in Balochistan and numerous other border crossings along the Durand Line. Is there a larger problem for Pakistan in “managing” its borders

IPL Lessons

AFTER a long wait, the Pakistan Super League is finally on. Given the passion associated with cricket not only in Pakistan, but all over the region one would want PSL to succeed. Though the Indian Premier League has taken a giant leap in South Asia, other countries, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka (SLPL) have also made attempts to have their own leagues with varying degrees of success

Trump’s muddle East

Donald Trump has already cast serious doubts on two signature initiatives taken by the Obama administration: the nuclear deal with Iran and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. While the latter is significant in the Indo-Pacific and mainland Asia, the former has the potential to stir up the Middle East cauldron. Will he take a leaf out of Barack Obama’s foreign policy book or muddle his way through the Middle East? Obviously, the new administration’s strategy towards Iran will not be Tehran-specific, but is likely to be part of a larger approach towards the entire Middle East. If the new administration ends up antagonizing Iran, it will have to see how that plays with the other major American calculus towards Saudi Arabia, Iraq, ISIS, Syria, and even Russia. Any new strategy towards ISIS, Iraq and Syria will have to involve Russia and Saudi Arabia, and it will not be easy for Trump to pursue American interests on his own