Modeling Evolution Of Tsunami And Its Impact On Coastal Vegetation [GC221.2. T261 2008 f rb].

Fokus utama tesis ini ialah pemodelan pergerakan gelombang tsunami merentasi laut sejurus selepas gempa bumi dan evolusi gelombang tersebut apabila menghampiri persisiran pantai. The main focus of this thesis is the modeling of earthquake-induced tsunami propagation across the deep ocean and their subsequent runup along the coastal beaches

Genetically Modified Mosquito: Myth and Reality

Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) has been applied successfully in some agricultural pest control programs in the past, but in many cases, success has not been sustainable in the long run. Various attempts have been made to duplicate this limited success SIT application in agriculture to other areas of applications, particularly in vector control. For example, a recent mosquito control program has been initiated in Malaysia to eliminate dengue-mosquitoes Aedes aegypti by releasing large amount of genetically modified GM male mosquitoes into the field to outcompete the wild male mosquitoes. Field experimental data that has been made available in the literature is limited, rendering it difficult to make independent assessment on its short-term efficacy and long-term sustainability of this GM control strategy. This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of GM mosquito in controlling dengue mosquito population by means of model simulations via DEER (Dengue Encephalitis Eradication Routines). Preliminary results indicate negative conclusion regarding the effectiveness of GM mosquitoes in controlling wild A. aegypti population over the long-term. Essentially, significant reduction of wild mosquito population is possible only if large over-flooding ratios are applied. Further, repeated releases must be maintained over an infinite time horizon to continue to sustain low population of mosquitoes. Major difficulty remains to be resolved. In particular, in-depth costbenefit analysis on this control program is essential to ensure long-term institutional and social support

Global Financial Crises: Origin and Management

The world has witnessed a succession of three global financial crises in the past two decades. During each crisis, many financial institutions failed. Credit became either unavailable or too costly for business, as seen in the recent financial turmoil in Greece. Similar situation also prevailed during the 1997-1998 Asian Financial crisis, requiring the International Monetary Fund to rescue Indonesia, Korea and Thailand. A major cause of these crises is the high levels of sovereign and corporate debts. Central banks were prompted to intervene by the injections of large liquidity with low interest rates into the financial systems. Cheap liquidity often leads to high asset valuations, a root cause of another future crisis. Cheap liquidity also might lead to future high inflation and unsustainable sovereign and corporate debts. This paper begins with providing a qualitative-quantitative appraisal of these three recent financial crises, beginning with the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis, through the 2008 US Great Recession, and the ongoing global recession. We argue that the 2008 US Great Recession was an inevitable consequence of the action of Asian countries in building sufficient foreign reserves in an attempt to insulate the country from future external shocks. The 2008 contagious crisis quickly spread to the EU zone and ultimately worldwide. The paper ends with some suggestions for managing future financial crisis, with particular reference to Asia that entails the formation of a pan-Asia economic grouping to resolve unending currency issues and other trade related problems, with China and Japan playing the leading role. Keywords: Financial Crisis Management; Sovereign Debts JEL Classifications: G1; G2; G

Application of a Coupled Vegetation Competition and Groundwater Simulation Model to Study Effects of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges on Coastal Vegetation

Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR) and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM) is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA) to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information

Modeling Mercury Contamination In The Evreglades Ecosystem : From Atmospheric Transport To Wetland.

The Florida Everglades is a vast wetland of about 10,000km located in Southern Floridaof The United States Of America.Bioaccumulation of mercury in the aquatic food chain in the Florida Everglades has been concert for seversl decades.High mercury burdens of 2.5mg/kg have been recorded by the Florida Department of Health in the largemouth bass in the Everglades,a level that is deemed unsafe by all health-based standards.The major sources of mecury in the Everglades wetlands are deprived from industrial combustions and waste incinerations transportedthrough the atmosphere over different lenght scales

PHARMACOECONOMIC EVALUATION FOR DENGUE VACCINE PRICING FOR MALAYSIA: TOWARDS AFFORDABILITY, COST EFFECTIVENESS AND SUSTAINABILITY

Objective: Malaysian health ministry is currently evaluating the licensing of dengue vaccine Dengvaxia using a set of criteria including safety, efficacy and cost-effectiveness. The purpose of this research is to formulate a model framework to assist transparent decision-making.Methods: To quantify the cost-effective price of vaccine, pharmacoeconomic evaluation models are commonly used. We review in this paper dengue economic burdens and pharmacoeconomic models, with particular reference to cost-effectiveness.Results: A major weakness in current pharmacoeconomic models is the omission of cost of vaccine production, which is two orders of magnitude lower than the market price. This paper proposes an inclusive model that yields a highly cost-effective threshold price of dengue vaccine at USD 5 per dose for Malaysia.Conclusion: At USD 5 per dose, Dengue vaccine will be fair, Affordable and sustainable

Modeling Tasik Harapan As A Flood Retention Pond.

Past philosophy that sought maximum conveyance of storm water at an individual site by the most rapid possible elimination of exccess surface water after a rainfall is no longer a prefered choice in the best management practice in flood control (ASCE, 1979)

MANTRA-O18: An Extended Version of SUTRA Modified to Simulate Salt and δ

Sea level rise and the increasing landward intrusion of storm surges pose the threat of replacement of salinity-intolerant vegetation of important coastal habitats by salinity-tolerant vegetation. Therefore, a means is needed to better understand the processes that influence this vegetation shift and to aid in the management of coastal resources. For this purpose, a hydrology–salinity–vegetation model known as MANTRA was developed by coupling a spatially explicit model (MANHAM) for simulation of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients with SUTRA, a USGS groundwater flow and transport model. MANTRA has been used to project possible future changes in Coot Bay Hammock in southern Florida under conditions of gradually rising sea level and storm surges. The simulation study concluded that feasibility exists of a regime shift from hardwood hammocks to mangroves subject to a few conditions, namely severe damage to the existing hammock after a storm surge and a sufficiently persistent high salinity condition and high input of mangrove seedlings. Early detection of salinity stress in vegetation may facilitate sustainable conservation measures being applied. It has been shown that the δ18O value of water in the xylem of trees can be used as a surrogate for salinity in the rooting zone of plants, which is difficult to measure directly. Hence, the model MANTRA is revised into MANTRA-O18 by including the δ18O of the tree xylem dynamics. A simulation study by MANTRA-O18 shows that effects of increasing salinization can be detected many years before the salinity-intolerant trees are threatened with replacement

MANTRA-O18: An Extended Version of SUTRA Modified to Simulate Salt and δ18O Transport amid Water Uptake by Plants

Sea level rise and the increasing landward intrusion of storm surges pose the threat of replacement of salinity-intolerant vegetation of important coastal habitats by salinity-tolerant vegetation. Therefore, a means is needed to better understand the processes that influence this vegetation shift and to aid in the management of coastal resources. For this purpose, a hydrology–salinity–vegetation model known as MANTRA was developed by coupling a spatially explicit model (MANHAM) for simulation of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients with SUTRA, a USGS groundwater flow and transport model. MANTRA has been used to project possible future changes in Coot Bay Hammock in southern Florida under conditions of gradually rising sea level and storm surges. The simulation study concluded that feasibility exists of a regime shift from hardwood hammocks to mangroves subject to a few conditions, namely severe damage to the existing hammock after a storm surge and a sufficiently persistent high salinity condition and high input of mangrove seedlings. Early detection of salinity stress in vegetation may facilitate sustainable conservation measures being applied. It has been shown that the δ18O value of water in the xylem of trees can be used as a surrogate for salinity in the rooting zone of plants, which is difficult to measure directly. Hence, the model MANTRA is revised into MANTRA-O18 by including the δ18O of the tree xylem dynamics. A simulation study by MANTRA-O18 shows that effects of increasing salinization can be detected many years before the salinity-intolerant trees are threatened with replacement