Quantifying the Socio-Economic Benefits of Reducing Industrial Dietary Trans Fats: Modelling Study.

BACKGROUND: Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality, generating a large and unequal burden of disease. Dietary trans fatty acids (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor, yet to be addressed in the UK (approximately 1% daily energy) as successfully as in other nations. Potential outcomes of such measures, including effects upon health inequalities, have not been well quantified. We modelled the potential effects of specific reductions in TFA intake on CHD mortality, CHD related admissions, and effects upon socioeconomic inequalities. METHODS & RESULTS: We extended the previously validated IMPACTsec model, to estimate the potential effects of reductions (0.5% & 1% reductions in daily energy) in TFA intake in England and Wales, stratified by age, sex and socioeconomic circumstances. We estimated reductions in expected CHD deaths in 2030 attributable to these two specific reductions. Output measures were deaths prevented or postponed, life years gained and hospital admissions. A 1% reduction in TFA intake energy intake would generate approximately 3,900 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3,300-4,500) fewer deaths, 10,000 (8,800-10,300) (7% total) fewer hospital admissions and 37,000 (30,100-44,700) life years gained. This would also reduce health inequalities, preventing five times as many deaths and gaining six times as many life years in the most deprived quintile compared with the most affluent. A more modest reduction (0.5%) would still yield substantial health gains. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing intake of industrial TFA could substantially decrease CHD mortality and hospital admissions, and gain tens of thousands of life years. Crucially, this policy could also reduce health inequalities. UK strategies should therefore aim to minimise industrial TFA intake

Replacing home visits with telephone calls to support parents implementing a sleep management intervention : findings from a pilot study and implications for future research

Background - Resource constraints may inhibit the provision of appropriate interventions for children with neurodisabilities presenting with behavioural sleep problems. Telephone calls (TC), as opposed to home visits (HV), may be a more resource efficient means of supporting these families. Objective - To conduct a preliminary investigation exploring the feasibility and acceptability of replacing HV with TC to support parents implementing sleep management strategies and to gather evidence to inform the design and methods of a full trial. Methods - Parents referred to a sleep management intervention routinely delivered by a community paediatric team were alternately allocated to receive implementation support via HV (n = 7) or TC (n = 8). Activity logs recorded the frequency, duration and mode of support. Parents and practitioners were interviewed about their experiences of receiving/delivering the intervention. Results - Intervention drop-out was low, the frequency, number of contacts and intervention duration appeared comparable. Parents allocated TC received less contact time. Parents valued implementation support irrespective of delivery mode and practitioners reported that despite initial reservations, implementation support via TC appeared to work well. Conclusions - TC appears an acceptable and convenient mode of delivering sleep support, valued by both parents and practitioners. We recommend a full-scale trial to investigate effectiveness

Contributions of diseases and injuries to widening life expectancy inequalities in England from 2001 to 2016: population-based analysis of vital registration data

Background Life expectancy inequalities in England have increased steadily since the 1980s. Our aim was to investigate how much deaths from different diseases and injuries and at different ages have contributed to this rise to inform policies that aim to reduce health inequalities. Methods We used vital registration data from the Office for National Statistics on population and deaths in England, by underlying cause of death, from 2001 to 2016, stratified by sex, 5-year age group, and decile of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (based on the ranked scores of Lower Super Output Areas in England in 2015). We grouped the 7·65 million deaths by their assigned International Classification of Diseases (10th revision) codes to create categories of public health and clinical relevance. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain robust estimates of cause-specific death rates by sex, age group, year, and deprivation decile. We calculated life expectancy at birth by decile of deprivation and year using life-table methods. We calculated the contributions of deaths from each disease and injury, in each 5-year age group, to the life expectancy gap between the most deprived and affluent deciles using Arriaga's method. Findings The life expectancy gap between the most affluent and most deprived deciles increased from 6·1 years (95% credible interval 5·9–6·2) in 2001 to 7·9 years (7·7–8·1) in 2016 in females and from 9·0 years (8·8–9·2) to 9·7 years (9·6–9·9) in males. Since 2011, the rise in female life expectancy has stalled in the third, fourth, and fifth most deprived deciles and has reversed in the two most deprived deciles, declining by 0·24 years (0·10–0·37) in the most deprived and 0·16 years (0·02–0·29) in the second-most deprived by 2016. Death rates from every disease and at every age were higher in deprived areas than in affluent ones in 2016. The largest contributors to life expectancy inequalities were deaths in children younger than 5 years (mostly neonatal deaths), respiratory diseases, ischaemic heart disease, and lung and digestive cancers in working ages, and dementias in older ages. From 2001 to 2016, the contributions to inequalities declined for deaths in children younger than 5 years, ischaemic heart disease (for both sexes), and stroke and intentional injuries (for men), but increased for most other causes. Interpretation Recent trends in life expectancy in England have not only resulted in widened inequalities but the most deprived communities are now seeing no life expectancy gain. These inequalities are driven by a diverse group of diseases that can be effectively prevented and treated. Adoption of the principle of proportionate universalism to prevention and health and social care can postpone deaths into older ages for all communities and reduce life expectancy inequalities

Group-Based Parent Training Interventions for Parents of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders: a Literature Review

© 2018, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature. Parents of children with autism spectrum disorders should have access to interventions to help them understand and support their child. This literature review examines the existing evidence for group-based parent training interventions that support parents of children with autism. From the literature, core intervention processes and outcomes are identified and include parenting and parent behaviour, parent health, child behaviour and peer and social support. Results show a positive trend for intervention effectiveness, but findings are limited by low-quality studies and heterogeneity of intervention content, outcomes and outcome measurement. Future research should focus on specifying effective intervention ingredients and modes of delivery, consistent and reliable outcome measurement, and improving methodological rigour to build a more robust evidence base

Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries and US states prior to mass vaccination [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Background: Industrialised countries had varied responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, which may lead to different death tolls from COVID-19 and other diseases. Methods: We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the number of weekly deaths if the pandemic had not occurred for 40 industrialised countries and US states from mid-February 2020 through mid-February 2021. We subtracted these estimates from the actual number of deaths to calculate the impacts of the pandemic on all-cause mortality. Results: Over this year, there were 1,410,300 (95% credible interval 1,267,600-1,579,200) excess deaths in these countries, equivalent to a 15% (14-17) increase, and 141 (127-158) additional deaths per 100,000 people. In Iceland, Australia and New Zealand, mortality was lower than would be expected in the absence of the pandemic, while South Korea and Norway experienced no detectable change. The USA, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland experienced >20% higher mortality. Within the USA, Hawaii experienced no detectable change in mortality and Maine a 5% increase, contrasting with New Jersey, Arizona, Mississippi, Texas, California, Louisiana and New York which experienced >25% higher mortality. Mid-February to the end of May 2020 accounted for over half of excess deaths in Scotland, Spain, England and Wales, Canada, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Cyprus, whereas mid-September 2020 to mid-February 2021 accounted for >90% of excess deaths in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. In USA, excess deaths in the northeast were driven mainly by the first wave, in southern and southwestern states by the summer wave, and in the northern plains by the post-September period. Conclusions: Prior to widespread vaccine-acquired immunity, minimising the overall death toll of the pandemic requires policies and non-pharmaceutical interventions that delay and reduce infections, effective treatments for infected patients, and mechanisms to continue routine health care

What will the cardiovascular disease slowdown cost? Modelling the impact of CVD trends on dementia, disability, and economic costs in England and Wales from 2020-2029.

To model the health impact and economic costs of the recent slowing of the historical decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence

Quantifying the impact of the Public Health Responsibility Deal on salt intake, cardiovascular disease and gastric cancer burdens: Interrupted time series and microsimulation study

Background In 2011, England introduced the Public Health Responsibility Deal (RD), a public-private partnership (PPP) which gave greater freedom to the food industry to set and monitor targets for salt intakes. We estimated the impact of the RD on trends in salt intake and associated changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gastric cancer (GCa) incidence, mortality and economic costs in England from 2011–2025. Methods We used interrupted time series models with 24 hours' urine sample data and the IMPACTNCD microsimulation model to estimate impacts of changes in salt consumption on CVD and GCa incidence, mortality and economic impacts, as well as equity impacts. Results Between 2003 and 2010 mean salt intake was falling annually by 0.20 grams/day among men and 0.12 g/d among women (P-value for trend both < 0.001). After RD implementation in 2011, annual declines in salt intake slowed statistically significantly to 0.11 g/d among men and 0.07 g/d among women (P-values for differences in trend both P < 0.001). We estimated that the RD has been responsible for approximately 9900 (interquartile quartile range (IQR): 6700 to 13,000) additional cases of CVD and 1500 (IQR: 510 to 2300) additional cases of GCa between 2011 and 2018. If the RD continues unchanged between 2019 and 2025, approximately 26 000 (IQR: 20 000 to 31,000) additional cases of CVD and 3800 (IQR: 2200 to 5300) cases of GCa may occur. Interpretation Public-private partnerships such as the RD which lack robust and independent target setting, monitoring and enforcement are unlikely to produce optimal health gains

Risk of infection in type 1 and type 2 diabetes compared with the general population: a matched cohort study

OBJECTIVE We describe in detail the burden of infections in adults with diabetes within a large national population cohort. We also compare infection rates between patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T1DM and T2DM). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A retrospective cohort study compared 102,493 English primary care patients aged 40–89 years with a diabetes diagnosis by 2008 (n = 5,863 T1DM and n = 96,630 T2DM) with 203,518 age-sex-practice–matched control subjects without diabetes. Infection rates during 2008–2015, compiled from primary care and linked hospital and mortality records, were compared across 19 individual infection categories. These were further summarized as any requiring a prescription or hospitalization or as cause of death. Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) between 1) people with diabetes and control subjects and 2) T1DM and T2DM adjusted for age, sex, smoking, BMI, and deprivation. RESULTS Compared with control subjects without diabetes, patients with diabetes had higher rates for all infections, with the highest IRRs seen for bone and joint infections, sepsis, and cellulitis. IRRs for infection-related hospitalizations were 3.71 (95% CI 3.27–4.21) for T1DM and 1.88 (95% CI 1.83–1.92) for T2DM. A direct comparison of types confirmed higher adjusted risks for T1DM versus T2DM (death from infection IRR 2.19 [95% CI 1.75–2.74]). We estimate that 6% of infection-related hospitalizations and 12% of infection-related deaths were attributable to diabetes. CONCLUSIONS People with diabetes, particularly T1DM, are at increased risk of serious infection, representing an important population burden. Strategies that reduce the risk of developing severe infections and poor treatment outcomes are under-researched and should be explored