Extreme Risk Makes the Journey Feasible: Decision-Making amongst Migrants in the Horn of Africa

Abstract This article explores how some potential migrants in the Horn of Africa incorporate the prospects of extreme danger into their journeys. It draws on evidence from qualitative interviews and focus group discussions with over 400 respondents, mainly from Ethiopian and Somali communities. It shows that the risks of migration within the Horn of Africa are often well known, thanks to strong migrant networks and improved mobile communications. Indeed, migrants may be better informed of the risks of the journey than they are about their prospects of securing a good living upon arrival. However, rather than discouraging people’s migration, high risk may open up new possibilities. This article supports this argument with two examples. First, as Yemen descended into civil war, the breakdown of state control created new opportunities to move undetected, notwithstanding the threat of injury and death. This helps explain why the number of Ethiopians passing through Yemen increased with the conflict, contrary to expectations. Second, some young Somalis are soliciting the services of smugglers to help them move towards Europe, knowing that they are likely to be abused and held for ransom en route. They gamble on their captors’ demands being met by family members, who would not otherwise have endorsed or paid for their journey. These findings challenge common assumptions about risk and decision-making, and suggests that some migrants may move because of, rather than in spite of, the risks involved. It also calls into question initiatives that seek to deter migration by raising awareness about the risks of the journey

Understanding how Laikipian households in Kenya move, stay connected and adapt through a political ecology of rural-urban livelihoods

This thesis asks to what extent do rural-urban livelihoods build the adaptive capacity of households experiencing a mix of natural and societal pressures and opportunities in Laikipia County, Kenya. It addresses the question of how people move, stay connected and adapt in contexts of change from a different and deliberate perspective. One that puts at its centre the concept of rural-urban livelihoods – a livelihoods framing of moving that up until now has remained under utilised and under-theorised. And one that frames the analysis from the perspective of a political ecology of mobilities – an analytical approach that understands the myriad ways in which people move and adapt in the context of power relations, constructivism, relational thinking, plurality and difference. The thesis examines the relationship between rural-urban livelihoods and adaptive capacity from the perspective of livelihoods diversification, reciprocal exchange and rural-urban changes. The following kinds of questions are explored. For whom and under what circumstances do livelihoods diversification, reciprocal exchange and rural-urban changes build adaptive capacity? To what extent do they strengthen some of the levers of adaptive capacity, whilst simultaneously undermining others? How does this uneven picture balance out to inform adaptive capacity as a whole? And how and why do these dynamics shift over time and place? Three main conclusions emerge. Firstly, that the relationship between rural-urban livelihoods and adaptive capacity is characterised by fluidity and plurality. Secondly, that rural-urban livelihoods have incremental, rather than transformational, impacts on adaptive capacity. And thirdly, that underlying patterns and trends structure a broader logic or direction to this mixed and variable picture, albeit one that remains characterised by everyday contradiction, deviation and complexit