The Interplay of Web Aggregation and Regulation

The development of web technology has led to the emergence of web aggregation, a service that collects existing web data and turns them into more useful information. We review the development of both comparison and relationship aggregation and discuss their impacts on various stakeholders. The aggregator’s capability of transparently extracting web data has raised challenging issues in database and privacy protection. Consequently, new regulations are introduced or being proposed. We analyze the interactions between aggregation and related policies and provide our insights about the implications of new policies on the development of web aggregation.Singapore-MIT Alliance (SMA

Research Initiative to Understand & Model State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics

In its Preface, The 9/11 Commission Report states: We learned that the institutions charted with protecting ... national security did not understand how grave this threat can be, and did not adjust their policies, plans, and practices to deter or defeat it (2004: xvi). Given current realities and uncertainties "better preparedness" can be achieved by identifying, controlling and managing the elusive linkages and situational factors that impact state stability and fuel state decay and destruction - and hence create new threats to the nation's security. We propose to focus on the use of system dynamics modeling techniques to help understand, measure and model the complex dynamics shaping state stability, initially for two regions. We will specifically consider the impacts of unanticipated disruptions, such as a tsunami and its aftermath, on the dynamics of the two regions. For each region, we will deliver a detailed country model, including 3-5 futures predictions in the 6-12 month range along with an analysis of conditions and casual links between predicted futures plus corresponding mitigated options

Context Mediation Demonstration of Counter-Terrorism Intelligence (CTI) Integration

Examination of intelligence failures prior to the 9/11/01 attacks made clear it that lack of effective information exchange among government agencies hindered the capability of identifying potential threats and preventing terrorist actions. A 2002 National Research Council study noted that “Although there are many private and public databases that contain information potentially relevant to counterterrorism programs, they lack the necessary context definitions (i.e., metadata) and access tools to enable interoperation with other databases and the extraction of meaningful and timely information.”[14] This report clearly recognized the importance of problems that the semantic data integration research community has been studying

Context Mediation Demonstration of Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Integration

In this report, we demonstrate the applicability and value of the context mediation approach in facilitating the effective and correct use of counter-terrorism intelligence information coming from diverse heterogeneous sources

Decision-making and biases in cybersecurity capability development: Evidence from a simulation game experiment

We developed a simulation game to study the effectiveness of decision-makers in overcoming two complexities in building cybersecurity capabilities: potential delays in capability development; and uncertainties in predicting cyber incidents. Analyzing 1479 simulation runs, we compared the performances of a group of experienced professionals with those of an inexperienced control group. Experienced subjects did not understand the mechanisms of delays any better than inexperienced subjects; however, experienced subjects were better able to learn the need for proactive decision-making through an iterative process. Both groups exhibited similar errors when dealing with the uncertainty of cyber incidents. Our findings highlight the importance of training for decision-makers with a focus on systems thinking skills, and lay the groundwork for future research on uncovering mental biases about the complexities of cybersecurity. Keywords: Cybersecurity; Decision-making; Simulation; Capability developmen

Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability

The world can be complex and dangerous - the loss of state stability of countries is of increasing concern. Although every case is unique, there are important common processes. We have developed a system dynamics model of state stability based on an extensive review of the literature and debriefings of subject matter experts. We represent the nature and dynamics of the ‘loads’ generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and the core features of state resilience and its ‘capacity’ to withstand these ‘loads’, on the other. The challenge is to determine when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate conditions under which small additional changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. With these insights, we can identify appropriate and actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of radical shifts in behavior and enhance prospects for stability

Semantic Information Integration in the Large: Adaptability, Extensibility, and Scalability of the Context Mediation Approach

There is pressing need for effectively integrating information from an ever increasing number of available sources both on the web and in other existing systems. A key difficulty of achieving this goal comes from the pervasive heterogeneities in all levels of information systems. Existing and emerging technologies, such as the Web, ODBC, XML, and Web Services, provide essential capabilities in resolving heterogeneities in the hardware and software platforms, but they do not address the semantic heterogeneity of the data itself. A robust solution to this problem needs to be adaptable, extensible, and scalable. In this paper, we identify the deficiencies of traditional approaches that address this problem using hand-coded programs or require complete data standardization. The COntext INterchange (COIN) approach overcomes these deficiencies by declaratively representing data semantics and using a mediator to create the necessary conversion programs using a small number of conversion rules. The capabilities of COIN is demonstrated using an intelligence information integration example consisting of 150 data sources, where COIN can automatically generate the over 22,000 conversion programs needed to enable semantic integration using only six parametizable conversion rules. This paper makes a unique contribution by providing a systematic evaluation of COIN and other commonly practiced approaches

Surviving and Thriving in the New World of Web Aggregators

This paper examines the development of aggregators, entities that collect information from a wide range of sources, with or without prior arrangements, and add value through post-aggregation services. New Web-page extraction tools, context sensitive mediators, and agent technologies have greatly reduced the barriers to constructing aggregators. We predict that aggregators will soon emerge in industries where they were not formerly present. Through studying over a hundred existing and emerging aggregators, we present a model for understanding the aggregator's strategic interaction with the incumbent. We also suggest different business models as possible aggregator entry points into an industry and describe their impact

A Survey of Methods for Data Inclusion in System Dynamics Models

In 1980, Jay Forrester enumerated three types of data needed to develop the structure and decision rules in models: numerical, written and mental data, in increasing order of importance. While this prioritization is appropriate, it is numerical data that has experienced the most development in the 25 years since Forester made his enumeration. In this paper, we’ll focus on how numerical data can be incorporated into models when written and mental data are known, and survey the techniques for doing so