Spatio-temporal variation in the wintering associations of an alpine bird

Many animals make behavioural changes to cope with winter conditions, being gregariousness a common strategy. Several factors have been invoked to explain why gregariousness may evolve during winter, with individuals coming together and separating as they trade off the different costs and benefits of living in groups. These trade-offs may, however, change over space and time as a response to varying environmental conditions. Despite its importance, little is known about the factors triggering gregarious behaviour during winter and its change in response to variation in weather conditions is poorly documented. Here, we aimed at quantifying large-scale patterns in wintering associations over 23 years of the white-winged snowfinch Montifringilla nivalis nivalis. We found that individuals gather in larger groups at sites with harsh wintering conditions. Individuals at colder sites reunite later and separate earlier in the season than at warmer sites. However, the magnitude and phenology of wintering associations are ruled by changes in weather conditions. When the temperature increased or the levels of precipitation decreased, group size substantially decreased, and individuals stayed united in groups for a shorter time. These results shed light on factors driving gregariousness and points to shifting winter climate as an important factor influencing this behaviour

Potential distribution of a climate sensitive species, the White-winged Snowfinch Montifringilla nivalis in Europe

The White-winged Snowfinch Montifringilla nivalis nivalis is assumed to be highly threatened by climate change, but this high elevation species has been little studied and the current breeding distribution is accurately known only for a minor portion of its range. Here, we provide a detailed and spatially explicit identification of the potentially suitable breeding areas for the Snowfinch. We modelled suitable areas in Europe and compared them with the currently known distribution. We built a distribution model using 14,574 records obtained during the breeding period that integrated climatic, topographic and land-cover variables, working at a 2-km spatial resolution with MaxEnt. The model performed well and was very robust; average annual temperature was the most important occurrence predictor (optimum between c.-3°C and 0°; unsuitable conditions below -10° and above 5°). The current European breeding range estimated by BirdLife International was almost three times greater than that classified as potentially suitable by our model. Discrepancies between our model and the distribution estimated by BirdLife International were particularly evident in eastern Europe, where the species is poorly monitored. Southern populations are likely more isolated and at major risk because of global warming. These differences have important implications for the supposed national responsibility for conservation of the species and highlight the need for new investigations on the species in the eastern part of its European range

Potential sex-dependent effects of weather on apparent survival of a high-elevation specialist

Mountain ecosystems are inhabited by highly specialised and endemic species which are particularly susceptible to climatic changes. However, the mechanisms by which climate change affects species population dynamics are still largely unknown, particularly for mountain birds. We investigated how weather variables correlate with survival or movement of the white-winged snowfinch Montifringilla nivalis, a specialist of high-elevation habitat. We analysed a 15-year (2003–2017) mark-recapture data set of 671 individuals from the Apennines (Italy), using mark-recapture models. Mark-recapture data allow estimating, forgiven time intervals, the probability that individuals stay in the study area and survive, the so called apparent survival. We estimated annual apparent survival to be around 0.44–0.54 for males and around 0.51–0.64 for females. Variance among years was high (range: 0.2–0.8), particularly for females. Apparent survival was lower in winter compared to summer. Female annual apparent survival was negatively correlated with warm and dry summers, whereas in males these weather variables only weakly correlated with apparent survival. Remarkably, the average apparent survival measured in this study was lower than expected. We suggest that the low apparent survival may be due to recent changes in the environment caused by global warming. Possible, non-exclusive mechanisms that potentially also could explain sexual differential apparent survival act via differential breeding dispersal, hyperthermia, weather-dependent food availability, and weather-dependent trade-off between reproduction and self-maintenance. These results improve our current understanding of the mechanisms driving population dynamics in high-elevation specialist birds, which are particularly at risk due to climate change