Differential vulnerability to hurricanes in Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic: the contribution of education

The possible impacts of the level of formal education on different aspects of disaster management, prevention, alarm, emergency, or postdisaster activities, were studied in a comparative perspective for three countries with a comparable exposure to hurricane hazards but different capacities for preventing harm. The study focused on the role of formal education in reducing vulnerability operating through a long-term learning process and put particular emphasis on the education of women. The comparative statistical analysis of the three countries was complemented through qualitative studies in Cuba and the Dominican Republic collected in 2010-2011. We also analyzed to what degree targeted efforts to reduce vulnerability were interconnected with other policy domains, including education and science, health, national defense, regional development, and cultural factors. We found that better education in the population had clear short-term effects on reducing vulnerability through awareness about crucial information, faster and more efficient responses to alerts, and better postdisaster recuperation. However, there were also important longer term effects of educational efforts to reduce social networks for mutual assistance creating a general culture of safety and preparedness. Not surprisingly, took an intermediate position

Optimal Fertility

In this paper we challenge the widespread notion that replacement level fertility is the most desirable level of fertility both for countries currently above and below this level. We first discuss possible alternative criteria for choosing one fertility level over another. Dismissing for the time being the two extreme criteria of ever increasing national strength (which would imply unlimited population growth) and preservation of the environment (which would see human numbers converge to zero), we focus on age dependency as the sole criterion. But we do so by relaxing the strong assumption that all individuals of a given age are equal in terms of their economic contribution to society and introduce education as probably the most relevant observable source of population heterogeneity. Our criterion variable is the education weighted support ratio and we perform thousands of alternative simulations for different constant levels of fertility starting from empirically given populations. If education is assumed to present a cost at young age and results in higher productivity during working age then for most countries the optimal long-term total fertility rate turns out to be well below replacement level

Demographic Metabolism at Work

In this paper, we transform the age-old wisdom that societies change through generational replacement into a formalized model that allows for quantitative forecasts of such societal changes for decades into the future. Using the term “Demographic Metabolism” which was introduced by Norman Ryder 50 years ago, we show how the blend of this concept with the methods of multi-dimensional population dynamics results in a sophisticated model with strong predictive power, particularly for such characteristics that once established tend to be sticky along cohort lines. We evaluate this model empirically and give a comprehensive summary of recent applications to the reconstruction and projection of educational attainment distributions by age and sex for all countries of the world that already resulted in major new assessments of the societal level returns to education. We revisit the past application of the model for forecasting the future spread of the prevalence of European identity in the EU and show that despite of the recent European crisis, the Demographic Metabolism continued to work as projected. Finally, we apply the model to the changing attitudes towards homosexuality in Japan, Spain and the USA and produce projections of the average tolerance levels in those countries up to 2040

Demography, Education, and the Future of Total Factor Productivity Growth

In this paper we present new data on total factor productivity for eight world regions over the period 1970 to 2001. The regions are North America, Western Europe, Japan/Oceania, the China Region, South Asia, Other Pacific Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa. We propose and estimate a new model of the determinants of total factor productivity based on the framework of conditional convergence. The model allows us to distinguish between factors that influence the level of the conditional productivity frontier and the speed of catching up to that frontier. We show that productivity stagnation in Latin America and the Caribbean and in Sub-Saharan Africa are not because they are trapped far below their potential, but rather that they are fully utilizing the low potential that they have. We found that education and age structure have independent and joint effects on productivity. The rate of capital formation, the quality of institutions, openness, and corruption also affect total factor productivity. The effects of specific variables on total productivity differ by context. They can be different depending on whether a country is catching up to its conditional productivity frontier or not. This provides the possibility of resolving some of the puzzles with respect to the effects of age structure and education that appear in the literature. The paper is based on the new IIASA/VID database on education

Under-Five Child Growth and Nutrition Status: Spatial Clustering of Indian Districts

Variation in human growth and the genetic and environmental factors that are influencing it have been described worldwide. The objective of this study is to assess the geographical variance of under-five nutritional status and its related covariates across Indian districts. We use the most recent fourth round of the Indian National Family Health Survey conducted in 2015–2016, which for the first time offers district level information. We employ principal component analysis (PCA) on the demographic and socio-economic determinants of childhood morbidity and conduct hierarchical clustering analysis to identify geographical patterns in nutritional status at the district level. Our results reveal strong geographical clustering among the districts of India, often crossing state borders. Throughout most of Southern India, children are provided with relatively better conditions for growth and improved nutritional status, as compared to districts in the central, particularly rural parts of India along the so called “tribal belt”. Here is also where girls are on average measured to have less weight and height compared to boys. Looking at average weight, as well as the proportion of children that suffer from underweight and wasting, north-eastern Indian districts offer living conditions more conducive to healthy child development. The geographical clustering of malnutrition, as well as below-average child height and weight coincides with high poverty, low female education, lower BMI among mothers, higher prevalence of both parity 4 + and teenage pregnancies. The present study highlights the importance of combining PCA and cluster analysis in studying variation in under-five child growth and of conducting this analysis at the district level. We identify the geographical areas, where children are under severe risk of undernutrition, stunting and wasting and contribute to formulating policies to improve child nutrition in India

Effects of educational attainment on climate risk vulnerability

In the context of still uncertain specific effects of climate change in specific locations, this paper examines whether education significantly increases coping capacity with regard to particular climatic changes, and whether it improves the resilience of people to climate risks in general. Our hypothesis is that investment in universal primary and secondary education around the world is the most effective strategy for preparing to cope with the still uncertain dangers associated with future climate. The empirical evidence presented for a cross-country time series of factors associated with past natural disaster fatalities since 1980 in 125 countries confirms this overriding importance of education in reducing impacts. We also present new projections of populations by age, sex, and level of educational attainment to 2050, thus providing an appropriate tool for anticipating societies' future adaptive capacities based on alternative education scenarios associated with different policies

Reducing Vulnerability in Critical Life Course Phases through Enhancing Human Capital

In this paper we examine selected types of vulnerability over the human life course with a specific focus on differentials not only by age and gender -- as is conventionally done in demography -- but also by level of education and with a focus on health. Starting with the newborn and vulnerability in terms of infant and child mortality, we refer to the level of education of the mother. In reference to young people's susceptibility to unemployment after leaving school, we take into account the education of the women and men themselves. Proceeding further in the life course, we next consider vulnerability to becoming disabled in the age group 30-74 according to the education level of the studied persons themselves. Finally, the last section studies differential vulnerability at the national level using the time series of deaths from disasters where the aggregate levels of education at a national level are being taken into account. We conclude that over the entire life cycle of individuals, the changes in behavior that tend to be associated with more education (of mothers or the persons themselves) can be viewed as a potent factor in reducing child mortality, reducing the risk for unemployment at young age, reducing the vulnerability to natural disasters, and finally reducing the risk of falling into disability. These general long-term benefits of near-term investments in education hold for individuals as well as for entire societies

Summary of Data, Assumptions and Methods for New Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC) Population Projections by Age, Sex and Level of Education for 195 Countries to 2100

This paper describes the base-line data and summarizes the methodology that underlies the projections presented for 195 countries of the world by age, sex, and educational attainment, based on detailed data on education for 171 countries. These multi-dimensional cohort-component projections require a large amount of empirical information, ranging from base-year data on populations disaggregated by levels of educational attainment by age and sex, to data on educational differentials of fertility and mortality. The paper also summarizes the procedures by which the assumed trajectories for future fertility, mortality and migration were derived by combining structured expert judgments with statistical models. It also describes in detail the procedures by which assumptions on aggregate fertility, mortality and migration trends were translated into education-specific trajectories in order to then calculate the implications of alternative education scenarios

Under-Five Child Growth and Nutrition Status: Spatial Clustering of Indian Districts. VID Working Paper 03/2019

Variation in human growth and the genetic and environmental factors that are influencing it have been described worldwide. The objective of this study is to assess the geographical variance of under-five children nutritional status and its related covariates across Indian districts. We use the most recent fourth round of the Indian National Family Health Survey conducted in 2015-2016, which for the first time offers district level information. We employ principal component analysis (PCA) on the demographic and socio-economic determinants of childhood morbidity and conduct hierarchical clustering analysis to identify geographical patterns in nutritional status among children of age under five at the district level. Our results reveal strong geographical clustering among the districts of India. Throughout most of Southern India, children are provided with relatively better conditions for growth and improved nutritional status, as compared to districts in the central, particularly rural parts of India. Looking at average weight, as well as the proportion of children that suffer from underweight and wasting, northeastern Indian districts seem to be offering living conditions more conducive to healthy child development. The geographical clustering of malnutrition, as well as below-average child height and weight coincides with high poverty, low female education, lower BMI among mothers, higher prevalence of both parity 4+ and teenage pregnancies. The present study highlights the importance of combining PCA and cluster analysis methods in studying variation in under-five child growth and nutrition at the district level. We identify the geographical areas, where children are under severe risk of undernutrition, stunting and wasting and contribute to formulating policies to improve child nutrition in India

The relative importance of women’s education on fertility desires in sub-Saharan Africa: A multilevel analysis

Lowering desired family size is a necessary precondition for fertility declines in high-fertility settings. Although accumulated evidence links socio-economic developments to changing fertility desires, little research has disentangled the relative importance of key socio-economic determinants. Combining individual- and community-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys in 34 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, we compare the relative role of different socio-economic factors on fertility desires at the individual, community, and country levels. Results show that at the individual level, women's education has a stronger effect than household wealth and area of residence. The high levels of reported desired family size in rural parts of SSA are mainly a consequence of relatively lower levels of education. The relative impact of women's education is even stronger at the community level. Our findings are robust to alternative measures of fertility preferences and strengthen previous findings regarding the relationship between fertility and women's education