Abrupt change in climate and climate models

First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work

Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) involves study and intercomparison of multimodel simulations of present and future climate. The simulations of the future use idealized forcing in which CO, increase is compounded 1% yr(-1) until it doubles (near year 70) with global coupled models that contain, typically, components representing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface. Results from CMIP diagnostic sub-projects were presented at the Second CMIP Workshop held at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, in September 2003. Significant progress in diagnosing and understanding results from global coupled models has been made since the time of the First CMIP Workshop in Melbourne, Australia, in 1998. For example, the issue of flux adjustment is slowly fading as more and more models obtain stable multicentury surface climates without them. El Nino variability, usually about half the observed amplitude in the previous generation of coupled models, is now more accurately simulated in the present generation of global coupled models, though there are still biases in simulating the patterns of maximum variability. Typical resolutions of atmospheric component models contained in coupled models are now usually around 2.5degrees latitude-longitude, with the ocean components often having about twice the atmospheric model resolution, with even higher resolution in the equatorial Tropics. Some new-generation coupled models have atmospheric resolutions of around 1.5degrees latitude - longitude. Modeling groups now routinely run the CMIP control and 1% CO2 simulations in addition to twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate simulations with a variety of forcings e.g., volcanoes, solar variability, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, ozone, and greenhouse gases, with the anthropogenic forcings for future climate as well. However, persistent systematic errors noted in previous generations of global coupled models are still present in the current generation (e.g., overextensive equatorial Pacific cold tongue, double ITCZ). This points to the next challenge for the global coupled climate modeling community. Planning and commencement of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) has prompted rapid coupled model development, which is leading to an expanded CMIP-like activity to collect and analyze results for the control, 1% CO2, and twentieth-, twenty-first, and twenty-second-century simulations performed for the AR4. The international climate community is encouraged to become involved in this analysis effort

On Universality in Human Correspondence Activity

Identifying and modeling patterns of human activity has important ramifications in applications ranging from predicting disease spread to optimizing resource allocation. Because of its relevance and availability, written correspondence provides a powerful proxy for studying human activity. One school of thought is that human correspondence is driven by responses to received correspondence, a view that requires distinct response mechanism to explain e-mail and letter correspondence observations. Here, we demonstrate that, like e-mail correspondence, the letter correspondence patterns of 16 writers, performers, politicians, and scientists are well-described by the circadian cycle, task repetition and changing communication needs. We confirm the universality of these mechanisms by properly rescaling letter and e-mail correspondence statistics to reveal their underlying similarity.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Climate Model Intercomparisons: Preparing for the Next Phase

Since 1995, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has coordinated climate model experiments involving multiple international modeling teams. Through CMIP, climate modelers and scientists from around the world have analyzed and compared state-of-the-art climate model simulations to gain insights into the processes, mechanisms, and conswquences of climate variability and climate change

Solution of the Unanimity Rule on exponential, uniform and scalefree networks: A simple model for biodiversity collapse in foodwebs

We solve the Unanimity Rule on networks with exponential, uniform and scalefree degree distributions. In particular we arrive at equations relating the asymptotic number of nodes in one of two states to the initial fraction of nodes in this state. The solutions for exponential and uniform networks are exact, the approximation for the scalefree case is in perfect agreement with simulation results. We use these solutions to provide a theoretical understanding for experimental data on biodiversity loss in foodwebs, which is available for the three network types discussed. The model allows in principle to estimate the critical value of species that have to be removed from the system to induce its complete collapse.Comment: 4 pages, 3 fig

The Concepts of Reliability and Homogeneity

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/67956/2/10.1177_001316445001000103.pd

Incorporation Of Deepwater Horizon Oil In A Terrestrial Bird

Carbon isotopic evidence revealed Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil entering coastal planktonic and lower terrestrial food webs. The integration of spilled oil into higher terrestrial trophic levels, however, remains uncertain. Wemeasured radiocarbon (C-14) and stable carbon (C-13) in seaside sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus) feathers and crop contents. Lower C-14 and C-13 values in feathers and crop contents of birds from contaminated areas indicated incorporation of carbon from oil. Our results, although based on a small sample of birds, thus reveal a food-web link between oil exposure and a terrestrial ecosystem. They also suggest that the reduction in reproductive success previously documented in the same population might be due to the (direct) toxic effect of oil exposure, rather than to (indirect) ecological effects. Werecommend future studies test our results by using larger samples of birds from a wider area in order to assess the extent and implications ofDWHoil incorporation into the terrestrial food web