Cars, Congestion, Public Transport, and Pricing: A Reality Check

For some little while now, the flavour of the month in transport policy seems to have been to set goals for massive relative increases in public transport ridership, reduction of car use, all resulting in a hoped-for reduction in road congestion. As a result of this policy focus, we have seen various government entities at the metropolitan, state, and national levels set goals for such activities as increased ride sharing, increased use of public transport, implementation of high occupancy vehicle lanes, and, at least in Australia and the U.K., thinking about congestion pricing of some form. Through political rhetoric, it seems that use of the private car, congestion, and declining shares of the market for public transport are all labeled as negatives that should be set right by some type of policy intervention. Since the first introduction of ideas of demand management in the late 1970s, the idea of trying to change behaviour of car users has been an increasingly significant focus of transport policy. This paper seeks to check the reality of these policy directions and questions whether these are desirable, let alone achievable end states. It is noted that major changes in transport market share have never been achieved in the past, and as such, it seems unlikely that such policies will be successful in the long term. Even if such policies can be achieved, it is questionable whether the end results will have desirable consequences or not

Standards for Household Travel Surveys-Some Proposals

Rising costs of household travel surveys and the critical need for good quality data, has led to questions about how best to obtain a quality survey that provides data comparable to other household travel surveys. To provide answers to these questions, the U.S. National Cooperative Highway Research Program sponsored development and recommendations of standards for household travel surveys. After reviewing briefly the state of practice of standards for surveys, a number of proposed standards are outlined. These proposals have been developed in the U.S. context, but offer potential for other countries, e.g., Australia, and New Zealand. A number of potential standards are discussed in the paper. The first are concerned with the initial design phases of a survey. The second are concerned with instrument design and the third with survey methodology. The fourth relate to non-response and the final to the analysis of survey results. Illustrations are provided of the consequences of not having standards and the difficulties and loss of quality that have arisen in past surveys. It is concluded that household travel survey quality could be enhanced significantly by adopting standards in all of the areas discussed in this paper

Mixed Method Data Collection in Travel Surveys: Challenges and Opportunities

The Transport and Population Data Centre (TPDC) has been running the Sydney Household Travel Survey as a continuous survey since 1997/8. It collects information on day-to-day travel in the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Region. Based on the faceto- face personal interview method, it has been seen internationally as a leading example of achieving high quality results in terms of response rates and accuracy of trip reporting. Using this data collection method, the full response rate and part response rate are currently about 55% and 8% respectively. However, in line with recent trends, this rate has declined significantly over the years since 1981 when it was about 79% and since 1997/98 when it was still around 76%. This paper examines the issue of decreasing response rates and sets out to find if using mixed modes of data collection would produce better trip estimates and would be more cost effective. It begins by addressing the intuitive question (can we get a higher response by sampling more households) and explains why this is the wrong question. The correct question is whether new modes of data collection will achieve better response rates – and more importantly better trip estimates and cost efficiencies. By examining the limited existing evidence from both transport and other resources, the paper is able to show in which cases it is likely that multiple modes might make a difference, and when they might not. However, the paper clearly concludes that without some further information and research, it is not possible to make an informed decision on the usefulness of a multi-modal intervention. The report concludes by describing the parameters of a study that could answer the question of whether and what type of mixed mode surveys would improve trip estimates and cost efficiency of the current Sydney Household Travel Survey

Missing and inaccurate information from travel surveys: Pilot results

During the implementation of a major regional household travel survey, known as the Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel and Activity 2007 (VISTA07) in Victoria, Australia, a pilot survey was undertaken using GPS to validate the diary survey results, similar to a number of studies in North America and Europe. The pilot results suggest that, as has been reported in most overseas studies, respondents generally underreport their travel significantly. Further, it is also found that respondents tend to overestimate trip times and underestimate (seriously) the distance of their travel. It is also noted that there are a significant number of respondents whose reporting is quite accurate, whilst a minority report significantly different information from what the GPS measures. However, a result found in this study that has not been reported before is that there is a very significant difference between the accuracy of reports from those asked to carry a GPS and those who were not asked to do so. This result suggests that the levels of underreporting of travel found in previous studies may be underestimated to a greater extent than previously believed particularly when one considers that VISTA07 uses a face-to-face recruitment methodology. It must be noted, however, that this was a pilot survey and that the sample size is too small to generalise the conclusions, which should not be used to scale any VISTA07 results

Managing congestion – Are we willing to pay the price?

A number of authors have written on the topic of congestion, both pointing out that it is not necessarily wholly undesirable, and also that it may not be susceptible to being reduced, let alone eliminated. Nevertheless, concerns continue to be raised about the costs of congestion, both to freight and passenger movements, and solutions tend to be put forward mainly in terms of capacity increases at particular congestion locations. This paper explores the extent of the problem of congestion and current trends in Australia. It looks at current policy directions and their impacts on congestion. It concludes that the most politically popular strategies are unlikely to make any impression on congestion, and may even exacerbate it. It then considers some possible changes in policy directions and investment and examines the likely impact that these would have on future congestion. The paper concludes that congestion is unlikely to be reduced significantly and that there will be major challenges to maintain congestion at current levels, as opposed to having it get considerably worse. A comprehensive program of strategies is required to even maintain current congestion levels, and the paper also concludes that a central policy that must be considered is that of time-distance-place user charges

TravelSmart: A Critical Appraisal

Travel behaviour modification, also called TravelSmart®, Indimark® and Travel Blending®, has been offered as a solution to the dependence of urban populations on the car. Travel behaviour modification is a voluntary programme aimed at changing travel behaviour through providing better information about transport options, rather than through investments in public transport, or through disincentive programmes for the car. The policy has been implemented in Australia in Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane, and is under active consideration at least in Melbourne and Sydney. The basis of this increasingly widespread potential application of travel behaviour modification is the claim that the program can deliver a shift of travel mode choices through the provision of better information about travel behaviour and travel choices. The claims that are made for this programme are that it can lead to reductions in car use of the order of 10 to 14 percent. If these claims are real, then travel behaviour modification is an enormously valuable programme, with the potential to achieve what has never been done before, i.e. provide a doubling or more of public transport ridership and a significant drop in car use. Such a program would be the answer to the dilemma of how to reduce car use significantly and consequently reduce congestion and vehicular emissions. It is, therefore, appropriate to undertake a critical appraisal to determine if travel behaviour modification is able to deliver these major mode shifts, as its proponents claim. In this paper, we review a number of published articles, primarily based on the Australian experience with travel behaviour modification, and also review several reports, and materials from the application areas. From these reviews, analyses are performed to see what the actual expected shift is in mode use for the whole population. It is found that there appears to be evidence that the claims of 10 or more percent shift out of car driver are over-stated, and that real shifts may be of the order of six to seven percent. Second, some sampling issues are discussed that indicate that the numbers reported to date may not be as reliable as one would like. Third, the locations of the test applications are examined and discussed, and it is suggested that there may be some significant bias in these locations towards a larger uptake of the shifts into environmentally-friendly modes of travel. In sum, the paper concludes that travel behaviour modification is capable of making changes in the use of environmentally-friendly modes, but not at the rates that have often been claimed. It is suggested that the target populations may need to be limited and that expectations of the size of the shifts in mode use need to be tempered

Travel time expenditures and travel time budgets - Preliminary findings

There has been discussion now for four decades on the issue of whether or not people around the world have a constant traveltime budget. Most of the research into travel-time budgets has used large aggregate data sets and has shown that average amounts of time spent travelling are on the order of 1 to 1½ hours. There have also been a number of studies that have failed to find evidence of constancy in travel-time budgets. In this paper, the authors report on some preliminary research that uses data from a panel of 50 households that provided GPS data for a period of up to 28 days. In the research to date, the analysis deals only with evidence from one wave of the panel, to determine whether there is evidence over a period of one week of stability in travel-time expenditures. The data set provides very precise times of travel for each person for up to28 consecutive days of travel. The analysis looks at travel time expenditure on a daily basis per person and then aggregates this to a week. The issue of regression to the mean is also considered and reviewed and conclusions are drawn that it is not an issue in this analysis. Evidence is found of some stability in travel time expenditures, especially when data are averaged over a two-week period

A Review of the Procedures Associated with Devising Emergency Evacuation Plans

The incidence of freak weather and geological events, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, has increased over the past thirty years. Coupled with an increase in the populations located in the path of these natural disasters, the imminent danger posed by naturally occurring phenomena has also risen. Given the potential dangers, it is wise for policy administrators to ensure that appropriate emergency plans are in place that aim to minimize the negative consequences associated with these disasters. Effective emergency planning and management should successfully combine the skills and knowledge of law enforcement agencies, transport planners as well as the knowledge and skills of emergency planning professionals. In Australia, there has not been a thorough investigation of the emergency impacts on the transport infrastructure nor have emergency plans adequately integrated the transportation aspect. Which transport routes should evacuees and emergency vehicles use is a question that needs to be answered urgently to avoid situations: · Where evacuees are trapped in their vehicles, · When emergency personnel are unable to gain access to the people in need, and · When emergency vehicles are not able to get onto the road network due to traffic congestion. Thus in a case of a suburban bush fire (wild fire), a fire that may have been easily extinguished or controlled is left to engulf more bush land and increase in ferocity. This paper critically assesses the many emergency evacuation models developed and also describes the important information required to devise the models. It is clear, however, that more research needs to be undertaken that specifically investigates the effects of a mass evacuation on current transport networks

Estimating Eligibility Rates: A Crucial Component of the Calculation for Response Rates

Response rates are used by analysts to assess survey quality: higher response rates are usually desired to reduce the incidence of non-response bias. The response rate is simply defined as the ratio of the number of completed interviews divided by the number of eligible sample units. However, due to the inconsistency of the definition of response rates often quoted in travel surveys, it is difficult to explicitly state that declining response rates are the result of less people willing to participate in surveys or are attributed to the calculation of response rates. It is most likely to be a combination of these two factors. This paper describes two well known formulas used to calculate response rates; the Council of American Survey Research Organizations (CASRO) formula and the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) formula. The real difference between these formulas lies in the estimate of eligible sample units amongst the sample units of unknown eligibility. Through examination of two call history files, the recruitment phase for two household travel surveys, eligibility rate estimates for the sample units of unknown eligibility were calculated and used in the response rate formulas. It was found that the rates of eligibility for the sample units of unknown eligibility were higher than the eligibility rates for the units of known eligibility. These results were not expected and further confirm that agencies need to treat units of unknown eligibility carefully when calculating response rates

Evaluation of GPS device properties for a possible use in future household travel surveys

This paper describes a series of tests undertaken to determine the potential usefulness of a specific passive, portable GPS device for use in household travel surveys. The tests were undertaken to provide a more complete understanding of the properties of the GPS device and to assess its suitability for replacing more conventional self-report diaries in a household travel survey. The tests were conducted first to ascertain the actual battery life of the devices, and then to test out the sensitivity and accuracy of the devices under a number of different conditions. This included tests by train, bus, and ferry in the Sydney area, and also by car and bicycle. The devices were also tested in various positions on the respondent’s body and were also tested in urban canyon and tunnel situations. Two versions of the GPS-PPAL were tested, as a result of an updated version that became available during the testing work. The results show that the GPSPPAL, especially in the latest modification, is well able to record travel very accurately in almost any situation