The Use of Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP

This paper studies the possibility of using the broad monetary aggregate M2 to target the quarterly rate of growth of nominal GDP. Our findings indicate that the Federal Reserve could probably guide M2 in a way that reduces not only the long-term average rate of inflation but also the variance of the annual rate of growth of nominal GDP. An optimal M2 rule, derived from a simple VAR, reduces the mean ten-year standard deviation of annual GDP growth by over 20 percent. Although there is uncertainty about this value because of both parameter uncertainty and stochastic shocks to the economy, we estimate that the probability that the annual variance would be reduced over a ten year period exceeds 85 percent. A much simpler policy based on a single equation linking M2 and GDP is shown to be almost as successful in reducing this annual GDP variance. Additional statistical tests indicate that M2 is a useful predictor of nominal GDP. Moreover, a battery of recently developed tests for parameter stability fails to reject the hypothesis that the M2 - GDP link is stable, but the MI - GDP and monetary base - GDP relations are found to be highly unstable. This evidence contradicts those who have argued that the M2 - GDP relation is so unstable in the short run that it cannot be used to reduce the variance of nominal GDP growth.

Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets Are Changing

This paper examines the problem of measuring the growth of a monetary aggregate in the presence of innovations in financial markets and changes in the relationship between individual assets and output. We propose constructing a monetary aggregate so that it is a good leading indicator of nominal GDP; in general the weights on its components vary over time. We investigate two specific procedures: one in which subaggregates discretely switch in and out, and one in which the growth of the aggregate is a time-varying weighted average of the growth of the subaggregates, where the weights follow a random walk. These procedures are used to construct aggregates which potentially augment M2 with stock and/or bond mutual funds. Over 1960-1991, the time-varying aggregates look much like M2, but during 1992-93 the time-varying aggregates outperform M2.

Orbital ordering promotes weakly-interacting S=1/2 dimers in the triangular lattice compound Sr3Cr2O8

The weakly interacting S=1/2 dimers system Sr3Cr2O8 has been investigated by powder neutron diffraction and inelastic neutron scattering. Our data reveal a structural phase transition below room temperature corresponding to an antiferro-orbital ordering with nearly 90 degrees arrangement of the occupied 3z^2-r^2 d-orbital. This configuration leads to a drastic reduction of the inter-dimer exchange energies with respect to the high temperature orbital-disorder state, as shown by a spin-dimer analysis of the super-superexchange interactions performed using the Extended Huckel Tight Binding method. Inelastic neutron scattering reveals the presence of a quasi non-dispersive magnetic excitation at 5.4 meV, in agreement with the picture of weakly-interacting dimers

Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets are Changing

This article considers constructing monetary aggregates in the presence of financial market innovations and changes in the relationship between individual assets and output. We propose two procedures for constructing a monetary aggregate with the objective of providing a reliable monetary leading indicator of nominal GDP. In the first, subaggregates discretely switch in and out; in the second, the aggregate's growth is a time-varying weighted average of the growth of the subaggregates, where the weights follow a multivariate random walk. These procedures are used to examine augmenting M2 with stock and/or bond mutual funds. The alternative aggregates are broadly similar to M2, but during 1992–1993 they outperform M2.Economic

Freedom of Language: Hispanic’s Fight for Cultural Equality

My goal is to see if freedom of speech is stable for all ethnic barriers. In certain situations freedom of speech is not stable and this cannot be enforced by federal courts, and my other goal is to explain why

Social Influence in Customer-Robot Interactions

This paper focuses on social influence in customer-robot interactions. Drawing on social impact theory and the computers-are-social-actors (CASA) paradigm, we argue that customers\u27 reluctance to provide information to a service robot decreases when other customers exhibit high information disclosure. The effect of demonstrated information disclosure on customers\u27 reluctance to provide information is enhanced by the application of social norms. The results also show that social influence is stronger in customer-robot interactions than in customer-employee interactions. This article demonstrates the potential of social influence to reduce reluctance towards service robots, which has both theoretical and managerial implications. We extend existing research on the imitation of robot behavior with the imitation of user behavior, and discuss the ethical implications of customers mindlessly following other customers in customer-robot interactions

Global oceanic emission of ammonia: constraints from seawater and atmospheric observations

Current global inventories of ammonia emissions identify the ocean as the largest natural source. This source depends on seawater pH, temperature, and the concentration of total seawater ammonia (NHx(sw)), which reflects a balance between remineralization of organic matter, uptake by plankton, and nitrification. Here we compare [NHx(sw)] from two global ocean biogeochemical models (BEC and COBALT) against extensive ocean observations. Simulated [NHx(sw)] are generally biased high. Improved simulation can be achieved in COBALT by increasing the plankton affinity for NHx within observed ranges. The resulting global ocean emissions is 2.5 TgN a−1, much lower than current literature values (7–23 TgN a−1), including the widely used Global Emissions InitiAtive (GEIA) inventory (8 TgN a−1). Such a weak ocean source implies that continental sources contribute more than half of atmospheric NHx over most of the ocean in the Northern Hemisphere. Ammonia emitted from oceanic sources is insufficient to neutralize sulfate aerosol acidity, consistent with observations. There is evidence over the Equatorial Pacific for a missing source of atmospheric ammonia that could be due to photolysis of marine organic nitrogen at the ocean surface or in the atmosphere. Accommodating this possible missing source yields a global ocean emission of ammonia in the range 2–5 TgN a−1, comparable in magnitude to other natural sources from open fires and soils

Mind the Gap - Über die Berücksichtigung von Finanzbildungsinhalten im Lehrstoff österreichischer Pflichtschulen

Da Finanzbildung im Idealfall schon bei Kindern und Jugendlichen ansetzt (vgl. Grohmann/Menkhoff 2015; Whitebread/Bingham 2013), hat eine Sub-Arbeitsgruppe des International Network on Financial Education (INFE), unter Mitarbeit der Österreichischen Nationalbank (OeNB), einen umfangreichen Katalog an Core Competencies für die Finanzkompetenz von Jugendlichen veröffentlicht (vgl. OECD 2015b). Dieser legt fest, welches Wissen und welche Fähigkeiten Kinder und Jugendliche im Alter von 15-18 Jahren in Bezug auf finanzielle Fragen haben sollten. Angesichts der hohen Relevanz von Finanzbildung stellt sich ausgehend von diesem Rahmenwerk die Frage, inwieweit die Core Competencies bereits durch die Lehrstoffinhalte der Pflichtschulen in Österreich abgedeckt sind. Das Projekt Financial Core Competencies in Austria (FinCCA) knüpft mittels zweistufiger Gap-Analyse an dieser Fragestellung an: In einem ersten Schritt ist das Projekt darauf ausgerichtet zu untersuchen, inwieweit die Core Competencies durch die Lehrplaninhalte abgedeckt sind. Auf Basis der inhaltsanalytischen Auswertung der Lehrpläne werden in einem weiteren Schritt ausgewählte, in Österreich approbierte, Schulbücher analysiert. Auf Grundlage der zweistufigen Gap-Analyse sollen zentrale Unterrichtsinhalte identifiziert werden, für die abschließend Lehrkonzepte zur Lehrer/innen/bildung im Bereich Finanzbildung entwickelt werden. Insgesamt soll damit ein weiterer wissenschaftlicher Grundpfeiler für eine nationale Strategie zur Förderung von Finanzbildung im Sinne der OECD (vgl. OECD 2015a) geschaffen werden. FinCCA wird als gemeinsames Projekt der Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien, der Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz und der Österreichischen Nationalbank (OeNB) durchgeführt. Dieser Artikel gibt unter Berücksichtigung des Forschungstands einen Einblick in die Zielsetzung, das Projektdesign und ausgewählte Projektergebnisse. Die Ergebnisse geben einen Einblick inwiefern bestimmte inhaltliche Themenbereiche grundlegender Finanzbildung bereits innerhalb des Lehrstoffes österreichischer Pflichtschulen berücksichtigt sind. Der Artikel schließt mit Ansatzpunkten zur Verbesserung grundlegender Finanzbildung und gibt einen Ausblick über die weitere Vorgehensweise

"Ausgewogenheit, Sachlichkeit" durch Rechtsaufsicht? Medienfreiheit zwischen staatlicher und privater Macht

Stock M. "Ausgewogenheit, Sachlichkeit" durch Rechtsaufsicht? Medienfreiheit zwischen staatlicher und privater Macht. Rundfunk und Fernsehen. 1977;25(1):1-40

Pädagogische Freiheit in erziehungswissenschaftlicher Sicht

Stock M. Pädagogische Freiheit in erziehungswissenschaftlicher Sicht. Recht der Jugend und des Bildungswesens. 1988;36(3):335-340