11 research outputs found

    Potret Lembaga Pengadilan Indonesia

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    Timing matters: Crisis severity and occupancy rate forecasts in social unrest periods

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    PurposeThe impact of demand fluctuation during crisis eventsis crucial to the dynamic pricing and revenuemanagement tactics of the hospitality industry. The aim of this paper is to improve the accuracyof hotel demand forecast during periods of crisis or volatility, taking the 2019 social unrest in HongKong as an example.MethodologyCrisis severity, approximated by social media data, is combined with traditional time-series models,including SARIMA, ETS and STL models. Models with and without the crisis severityintervention are evaluated to determine under which conditions a crisis severity measurementimproves hotel demand forecasting accuracy.FindingsCrisis severity is found to be an effective tool to improve the forecasting accuracy of hotel demandduring crisis. When the market is volatile, the model with the severity measurement is moreeffective to reduce the forecasting error. When the time of the crisis lasts long enough for the timeseries model to capture the change, the performance of traditional time series model is muchimproved. The findings of this research is the incorporating social media data does not universallyimprove the forecast accuracy. Hotels should select forecasting models accordingly during crises.OriginalityThe originalities of the study are as follows. First, this is the first study to forecast hotel demandduring a crisis which has valuable implications for the hospitality industry. Second, this is also thefirst attempt to introduce a crisis severity measurement, approximated by social media coverage,into the hotel demand forecasting practice thereby extending the application of big data in thehospitality literature

    Big data and tourism planning

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