Detection, attribution, and sensitivity of trends toward earlier streamflow in the Sierra Nevada

Observed changes in the timing of snowmelt dominated streamflow in the western United States are often linked to anthropogenic or other external causes. We assess whether observed streamflow timing changes can be statistically attributed to external forcing, or whether they still lie within the bounds of natural (internal) variability for four large Sierra Nevada (CA) basins, at inflow points to major reservoirs. Streamflow timing is measured by “center timing” (CT), the day when half the annual flow has passed a given point. We use a physically based hydrology model driven by meteorological input from a global climate model to quantify the natural variability in CT trends. Estimated 50-year trends in CT due to natural climate variability often exceed estimated actual CT trends from 1950 to 1999. Thus, although observed trends in CT to date may be statistically significant, they cannot yet be statistically attributed to external influences on climate. We estimate that projected CT changes at the four major reservoir inflows will, with 90% confidence, exceed those from natural variability within 1–4 decades or 4–8 decades, depending on rates of future greenhouse gas emissions. To identify areas most likely to exhibit CT changes in response to rising temperatures, we calculate changes in CT under temperature increases from 1 to 5°. We find that areas with average winter temperatures between −2°C and −4°C are most likely to respond with significant CT shifts. Correspondingly, elevations from 2000 to 2800 m are most sensitive to temperature increases, with CT changes exceeding 45 days (earlier) relative to 1961–1990

Development and application of a hydroclimatological stream temperature model within the Soil and Water Assessment Tool

We develop a stream temperature model within the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) that reflects the combined influence of meteorological (air temperature) and hydrological conditions (streamflow, snowmelt, groundwater, surface runoff, and lateral soil flow) on water temperature within a watershed. SWAT currently uses a linear air-stream temperature relationship to determine stream temperature, without consideration of watershed hydrology. As SWAT uses stream temperature to model various in-stream biological and water quality processes, an improvement of the stream temperature model will result in improved accuracy in modeling these processes. The new stream temperature model is tested on seven coastal and mountainous streams throughout the western United States for which high quality flow and water temperature data were available. The new routine does not require input data beyond that already supplied to the model, can be calibrated with a limited number of calibration parameters, and achieves improved representation of observed daily stream temperature. For the watersheds modeled, the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficient and mean error (ME) for the new stream temperature model averaged 0.81 and −0.69°C, respectively, for the calibration period and 0.82 and −0.63°C for the validation period. The original SWAT stream temperature model averaged a NS of −0.27 and ME of 3.21°C for the calibration period and a NS of −0.26 and ME of 3.02°C for the validation period. Sensitivity analyses suggest that the new stream temperature model calibration parameters are physically reasonable and the model is better able to capture stream temperature changes resulting from changes in hydroclimatological conditions

The Mesoamerican mid-summer drought: the impact of its definition on occurrences and recent changes

The mid-summer drought, veranillo or canícula, is a phenomenon experienced in many areas, including Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. It generally is experienced as reduced rainfall in July–August, in the middle of the typical rainy season (May–September). Many past studies have attempted to quantify changes in mid-summer drought characteristics during the recent past or for future climate projections. To do this, objective definitions of a mid-summer drought’s occurrence, strength, and duration have been developed by many researchers. In this effort we adopt a recent set of definitions and examine the impact of varying these on the characterization of mid-summer droughts and the detected changes over the past 4 decades. We find the selection of a minimum intensity threshold has a dramatic effect on the results of both the area considered as experiencing a midsummer drought and the changes detected in the recent historical record. The intensity chosen can affect both the magnitude and direction of changes reported in the recent observed record. Further, we find that the typical mid-summer drought pattern may not be occurring during the time it has historically; whether examining past or future changes or developing improved seasonal forecasts, the non-stationarity of its timing should be accommodated.UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI

Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River basin: habitat implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers

Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitats in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species\u27 responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled general circulation model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature for the late 21st century at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River basin (CRB). On average, stream temperatures are projected to increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for the summer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for the winter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlated with changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, and often ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in stream temperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermal sensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the cooling effect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, such as precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil water flow, and groundwater inflow, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperature depending on the ecological province and season. At the ecological province scale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within the Mountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by migratory coldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally with the largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during the spring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate that stream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require a physically explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the habitat regulating the distribution and diversity of aquatic taxa

Confronting Environmental Inequality: Assessing and Mitigating Students\u27 Exposure to Near Roadway Air Pollution in Silicon Valley

Near roadway vehicle emissions, such as particulate matter (PM), nitrous oxides, and other contaminants, are major sources of air pollution, which can cause respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses.1 Chronic air and noise pollution exposures can also negatively influence cognitive function and student learning. Of greatest concern are concentrations within 500 feet of high traffic street edges, but concentrations can be harmful at distances up to 1320 ft.2 Vulnerable populations such as children, the elderly, or those with impaired health are likely to suffer the greatest impacts. In 2003, the California legislature passed SB 352, prohibiting building new schools within 500 ft of high traffic roadways. However, SB 352 does not address what action should be taken to reduce the health risks for children at school sites already near high traffic roadways, and the Bill acknowledges that a disproportionate amount of low income students attend such schools. A recent report found that nationwide more than 8000 public schools or about one in every 11 public schools, serving roughly 4.4 million students is located within 500 ft. of a road with more than 30,000 vehicles per day, or at least 10,000 cars and 500 trucks per day. Many more head start and private schools are also exposed.3 An earlier study, found that 13.5% of students attended schools within 820 ft of a major roadway, concluding that minority and underprivileged children were disproportionately affected, although some results varied regionally.4 To better understand pollution patterns, environmental justice issues, and the community responses in Santa Clara County (SCC), we started field research in the Greater Washington Neighborhood of San Jose, CA. We started here because of the proximity of schools to high traffic roadways, and the support that Thriving Neighbors Initiative offered through partnerships with Washington Elementary School (WES) and a network of promotoras that are improving their community and interested in a community-based research

Voronoi Tessellation Captures Very Early Clustering of Single Primary Cells as Induced by Interactions in Nascent Biofilms

Biofilms dominate microbial life in numerous aquatic ecosystems, and in engineered and medical systems, as well. The formation of biofilms is initiated by single primary cells colonizing surfaces from the bulk liquid. The next steps from primary cells towards the first cell clusters as the initial step of biofilm formation remain relatively poorly studied. Clonal growth and random migration of primary cells are traditionally considered as the dominant processes leading to organized microcolonies in laboratory grown monocultures. Using Voronoi tessellation, we show that the spatial distribution of primary cells colonizing initially sterile surfaces from natural streamwater community deviates from uniform randomness already during the very early colonisation. The deviation from uniform randomness increased with colonisation — despite the absence of cell reproduction — and was even more pronounced when the flow of water above biofilms was multidirectional and shear stress elevated. We propose a simple mechanistic model that captures interactions, such as cell-to-cell signalling or chemical surface conditioning, to simulate the observed distribution patterns. Model predictions match empirical observations reasonably well, highlighting the role of biotic interactions even already during very early biofilm formation despite few and distant cells. The transition from single primary cells to clustering accelerated by biotic interactions rather than by reproduction may be particularly advantageous in harsh environments — the rule rather than the exception outside the laboratory

Mineralogy and petrology of comet 81P/wild 2 nucleus samples

The bulk of the comet 81P/Wild 2 (hereafter Wild 2) samples returned to Earth by the Stardust spacecraft appear to be weakly constructed mixtures of nanometer-scale grains, with occasional much larger (over 1 micrometer) ferromagnesian silicates, Fe-Ni sulfides, Fe-Ni metal, and accessory phases. The very wide range of olivine and low-Ca pyroxene compositions in comet Wild 2 requires a wide range of formation conditions, probably reflecting very different formation locations in the protoplanetary disk. The restricted compositional ranges of Fe-Ni sulfides, the wide range for silicates, and the absence of hydrous phases indicate that comet Wild 2 experienced little or no aqueous alteration. Less abundant Wild 2 materials include a refractory particle, whose presence appears to require radial transport in the early protoplanetary disk

A large genome-wide association study of age-related macular degeneration highlights contributions of rare and common variants.

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ng.3448Advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly, with limited therapeutic options. Here we report on a study of >12 million variants, including 163,714 directly genotyped, mostly rare, protein-altering variants. Analyzing 16,144 patients and 17,832 controls, we identify 52 independently associated common and rare variants (P < 5 × 10(-8)) distributed across 34 loci. Although wet and dry AMD subtypes exhibit predominantly shared genetics, we identify the first genetic association signal specific to wet AMD, near MMP9 (difference P value = 4.1 × 10(-10)). Very rare coding variants (frequency <0.1%) in CFH, CFI and TIMP3 suggest causal roles for these genes, as does a splice variant in SLC16A8. Our results support the hypothesis that rare coding variants can pinpoint causal genes within known genetic loci and illustrate that applying the approach systematically to detect new loci requires extremely large sample sizes.We thank all participants of all the studies included for enabling this research by their participation in these studies. Computer resources for this project have been provided by the high-performance computing centers of the University of Michigan and the University of Regensburg. Group-specific acknowledgments can be found in the Supplementary Note. The Center for Inherited Diseases Research (CIDR) Program contract number is HHSN268201200008I. This and the main consortium work were predominantly funded by 1X01HG006934-01 to G.R.A. and R01 EY022310 to J.L.H