Practical Bayesian Optimization for Variable Cost Objectives

We propose a novel Bayesian Optimization approach for black-box functions with an environmental variable whose value determines the tradeoff between evaluation cost and the fidelity of the evaluations. Further, we use a novel approach to sampling support points, allowing faster construction of the acquisition function. This allows us to achieve optimization with lower overheads than previous approaches and is implemented for a more general class of problem. We show this approach to be effective on synthetic and real world benchmark problems.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figure

Epizootiology of the Fungal Pathogen, \u3ci\u3eZoophthora Phytonomi\u3c/i\u3e (Zygomycetes: Entomophthorales) in Field Populations of Alfalfa Weevil (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Larvae in Illinois

The influence of the fungal pathogen, Zoophthora phytonomi, on larvae of the alfalfa weevil, Hypera postica, was studied in three alfalfa fields in Illinois. Disease epizootics occurred in all three fields and disease onset was ob- served within a fairly narrow range of degree day accumulations. At the height of each epizootic, percentages of infected larvae were between 80 and 100%, and the fungus contributed to the collapse of the weevil population in each field. Percent parasitism by the larval parasitoids, Bathyplectes cur­culionis and B. anurus, was lower in our fields than is common in mid-season alfalfa weevil populations and was sometimes correlated negatively with Zoophthora phytonomi infection levels, strongly implying negative interfer- ence between the parasitoids and the pathogen. Control potential of Zooph­thora phytonomi disease in alfalfa weevil larval populations is addressed

Experts and evidence in deliberation: scrutinising the role of witnesses and evidence in mini-publics, a case study

Experts hold a prominent position in guiding and shaping policy-making; however, the nature of expert input to decision-making is a topic of public debate. A key aspect of deliberative processes such as citizens’ juries is the provision of information to participants, usually from expert witnesses. However, there is currently little guidance on some of the challenges that organisers and advocates of citizens’ juries must consider regarding expert involvement, including the role of the witness, issues around witness identification and selection, the format of evidence provision, the evidence itself, and how these factors affect the experience of the participants and the witnesses. Here, we explore these issues through detailed case study of three citizens’ juries on onshore wind farm development in Scotland, including interviews with the witnesses involved. This is complemented by examining a cohort of mini-publics held on energy and the environment topics, and, where possible, discussion with the program organisers. We identify a series of issues and sensitivities that can compromise the effectiveness and fairness of the evidence-giving in mini-publics, for the participants, the witnesses and the organisers. We recommend approaches and areas for future work to address these challenges. This is the first time that the ways of involving witnesses in such processes have been so comprehensively examined, and is timely given the increasing interest in democratic innovations such as mini-publics and the current discourse concerning experts