Do Firms Smooth the Seasonal in Production in a Boom? Theory and Evidence

Using disaggregated production data we show that the size of seasonal cycles changes significantly over the course of the business cycle. In particular, during periods of high economy-wide activity, some industries smooth seasonal fluctuations while others exaggerate them. We interpret this finding using a simple analytical model that describes the conditions under which seasonal and cyclical fluctuations can be separated. Our model implies that seasonal fluctuations can safely be disentangled from cyclical fluctuations only when the marginal cost of production is linear, and the variation in demand and cost satisfy certain (restrictive) conditions. The model also suggests that inventory movements can be used to isolate the role of demand shifts in generating any interaction between seasonal cycles and business cycles. Thus, the empirical analysis involves studying the variation in seasonally unadjusted patterns of production and inventory accumulation over different phases of the business cycle. Our finding that seasonals shrink during booms and that firms carry more inventories into high sales seasons during a boom leads us to conclude that for several industries, marginal cost slopes up at an increasing rate. Conversely, in a couple of industries we find that seasonal swings in production are exaggerated during booms and that inventories are drawn down prior to high sales seasons, suggesting that marginal costs curves flatten as production increases. Overall, we find considerable evidence that there are non-linear interactions between business cycles and seasonal cycles.

The Demand for Inputs and the Supply of Output in Pakistan: Estimating a Fixedeffects, Distributed-lag Model for Wheat Farmers

Agricultural growth in Pakistan over the past 3 decades has been very impressive, averaging 3.3 percent annually over the period 1965-80, and accelerating to 4.3 percent per year over the period 1980-90. But as impressive as these numbers are, questions arise regarding the success of the agricultural sector in terms of meeting food and employment needs, the potential for continuing or increasing growth rates in the future, the likely sources of future agricultural growth, and the technologies, policies, and institutional arrangements necessary to achieve that growth. The truth is that agriculture in general, and food production in particular, have been working hard to just to keep pace with other sectors and with the food needs of the domestic population. Agriculture was the slowest growing sector in Pakistan over the past 30 years, with general economic expansion moving along at an average of 5.2 percent annually over the 1965-80 period, and of 6.3 percent per year over the decade of the 1980s. In addition, in spite of very . substantial production and productivity gains for most major crops, the average index of food production per capita remained constant over the 1980-90 period, while the total volume of cereal imports nearly doubled to over 2,048,000 metric tons [World Development Report (1992)]

A database management capability for Ada

The data requirements of mission critical defense systems have been increasing dramatically. Command and control, intelligence, logistics, and even weapons systems are being required to integrate, process, and share ever increasing volumes of information. To meet this need, systems are now being specified that incorporate data base management subsystems for handling storage and retrieval of information. It is expected that a large number of the next generation of mission critical systems will contain embedded data base management systems. Since the use of Ada has been mandated for most of these systems, it is important to address the issues of providing data base management capabilities that can be closely coupled with Ada. A comprehensive distributed data base management project has been investigated. The key deliverables of this project are three closely related prototype systems implemented in Ada. These three systems are discussed

Learning to Think while Thinking to Learn: Promoting the Infusion of Critical and Creative Thinking in Today\u27s ICT Classrooms

Traditional IT courses usually require enormous student motivation and perseverance with varying results. IT lecturers at UAE University’s University General Requirements Program tackled these problems by promoting a natural way of infusing creative and critical thinking in the classroom by structuring lessons where students manage their own thinking. Three main critical and creative thinking methodologies (Open Compare and Contrast, Focused Compare and Contrast, and Determining Parts-Whole Relationships) were used with five ICT sections (about 100 students). This paper describes the new lesson plans, their overall effectiveness, and future plans. It also discusses the impact of these lessons on student learning and also in terms of educational goals, contents, and assessment (periodic and terminal). The outcome of this research indicates that changes in ICT classroom teaching methods can help students become critical thinkers, able to search out, understand, analyze, and synthesize information

Optimal time for sensing in open quantum systems

We study the time-dependent quantum Fisher information (QFI) in an open quantum system satisfying the Gorini-Kossakowski-Sudarshan-Lindblad master equation. We also study the dynamics of the system from an effective non-Hermitian dynamics standpoint and use it to understand the scaling of the QFI when multiple probes are used. A focus of our work is how the QFI is maximized at certain times suggesting that the best precision in parameter estimation can be achieved by focusing on these times. The propagation of errors analysis allows us to confirm and better understand this idea. We also propose a parameter estimation procedure involving relatively low resource consuming measurements followed by higher resource consuming measurements and demonstrate it in simulation.Comment: 11 pages,8 Figure

Infusing Critical and Creative Thinking and Metacognition in ICT Education: A Classroom Study

Enormous student motivation and perseverance are required for Traditional IT courses. To overcome these problems, IT lecturers at UAE University’s University General Requirements Program have promoted a natural way of infusing creative and critical thinking in the classroom by structuring lessons in which students manage their own thinking, not a physical performance in the class. Three main critical and creative thinking methodologies (Open Compare and Contrast, Focused Compare and Contrast, and Determining Parts-Whole Relationships) were used with five ICT sections (about 100 students). This paper describes the new lesson plans, their overall effectiveness, and future plans. It also discusses the impact of these lessons on student learning and comprehension and also in terms of educational goals, contents, and assessment. The outcome of this research indicates that ICT classroom teaching methods changes will help students to become critical thinkers, able to search out, understand, analyze, and synthesize information

Achieving the Heisenberg limit with Dicke states in noisy quantum metrology

Going beyond the standard quantum limit in noisy quantum metrology is an important and challenging task. Here we show how Dicke states can be used to surpass the standard quantum limit and achieve the Heisenberg limit in open quantum systems. The system we study has qubits symmetrically coupled to a resonator and our objective is to estimate the coupling between the qubits and the resonator. The time-dependent quantum Fisher information with respect to the coupling is studied for this open quantum system where the same decay rates are assumed on all qubits. We show that when the system is initialized to a Dicke state with an optimal excitation number one can go beyond the standard quantum limit and achieve the Heisenberg limit even for finite values of the decays on the qubit and the resonator, particularly when the qubits and resonator are strongly coupled. We compare our results against the highly entangled GHZ state and a completely separable state and show that the GHZ state performs quite poorly whereas under certain noise conditions the separable state is able to go beyond the standard quantum limit due to subsequent interactions with a resonator.Comment: 11 pages, 7 Figures, typos corrected and references adde

The Transcriptomic Response of Rat Hepatic Stellate Cells to Endotoxin: Implications for Hepatic Inflammation and Immune Regulation

With their location in the perisinusoidal space of Disse, hepatic stellate cells (HSCs) communicate with all of the liver cell types both by physical association (cell body as well as cytosolic processes penetrating into sinusoids through the endothelial fenestrations) and by producing several cytokines and chemokines. Bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS), circulating levels of which are elevated in liver diseases and transplantation, stimulates HSCs to produce increased amounts of cytokines and chemokines. Although recent research provides strong evidence for the role of HSCs in hepatic inflammation and immune regulation, the number of HSC-elaborated inflammatory and immune regulatory molecules may be much greater then known at the present time. Here we report time-dependent changes in the gene expression profile of inflammatory and immune-regulatory molecules in LPS-stimulated rat HSCs, and their validation by biochemical analyses. LPS strongly up-regulated LPS-response elements (TLR2 and TLR7) but did not affect TLR4 and down-regulated TLR9. LPS also up-regulated genes in the MAPK, NFκB, STAT, SOCS, IRAK and interferon signaling pathways, numerous CC and CXC chemokines and IL17F. Interestingly, LPS modulated genes related to TGFβ and HSC activation in a manner that would limit their activation and fibrogenic activity. The data indicate that LPS-stimulated HSCs become a major cell type in regulating hepatic inflammatory and immunological responses by altering expression of numerous relevant genes, and thus play a prominent role in hepatic pathophysiology including liver diseases and transplantation