Sensitivity of Fractured Reservoir Performance to Static and Dynamic Properties, and History Matching

Imperial Users onl

Fiscal Policy Report Card on America's Governors: 2004

As states continue to claw their way out of the worst state budget hole in years, this report presents the findings of the Cato Institute's seventh biennial fiscal policy report card on the nation's governors. The report card's grading is based on 15 objective measures of fiscal performance. Governors who have cut taxes and spending the most receive the highest grades. Those who have increased spending and taxes the most receive the lowest grades. Our analysis shows that states that keep tax rates low and restrain spending growth have the best economic performance and thus the best longterm fiscal health.This year, four governors receive the grade of A: Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, Craig Benson of New Hampshire, Bill Owens of Colorado, and Judy Martz of Montana. Four governors receive Fs for their poor performance in dealing with the state fiscal crisis: Bob Holden of Missouri, Bob Taft of Ohio, Edward Rendell of Pennsylvania, and James McGreevey of New Jersey.The grades of the governors of some of America's most populous states are Jeb Bush of Florida, B; George Pataki of New York, B; Rick Perry of Texas, B; and Jennifer Granholm of Michigan, D

Fiscal Policy Report Card on America's Governors: 2002

Against the backdrop of the worst state budget crunch in years, this report presents the findings of Cato Institute's sixth biennial fiscal policy report card on the nation's governors. The report card's grading is based on 17 objective measures of each governor's fiscal performance. Governors who have cut taxes and spending the most receive the highest grades. Those who have increased spending and taxes the most receive the lowest grades.This year, two governors receive the highest grade of A: Bill Owens of Colorado and Jeb Bush of Florida. Four governors receive the lowest grade of F: Gray Davis of California, Don Sundquist of Tennessee, Bob Taft of Ohio, and John Kitzhaber of Oregon.Stephen Moore is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. Stephen Slivinski, a former fiscal policy analyst at the Cato Institute, is director of tax and budget studies at the Goldwater Institute.The governors of some of America's most populous states and their grades are George Pataki of New York, B; George Ryan of Illinois, D; and John Engler of Michigan, B.State governments faced a combined budget gap of more than $40 billion in 2002, largely as a result of an overspending binge in the 1990s. Most governors will confront more tough budget choices in 2003. We hope that governors do not make the mistake of raising taxes to try to balance budgets, as many did in the economic slowdown of the early 1990s. Instead, by reducing spending and cutting tax rates, governors can return their states to fiscal and economic health. If they do, we will have many high grades to reward on the next Cato fiscal report card

Infants' representations of causation

It is consistent with the evidence in The Origin of Concepts to conjecture that infants' causal representations, like their numerical representations, are not continuous with adults', so that bootstrapping is needed in both cases

Rules for the Cortical Map of Ocular Dominance and Orientation Columns

Three computational rules are sufficient to generate model cortical maps that simulate the interrelated structure of cortical ocular dominance and orientation columns: a noise input, a spatial band pass filter, and competitive normalization across all feature dimensions. The data of Blasdel from optical imaging experiments reveal cortical map fractures, singularities, and linear zones that are fit by the model. In particular, singularities in orientation preference tend to occur in the centers of ocular dominance columns, and orientation contours tend to intersect ocular dominance columns at right angles. The model embodies a universal computational substrate that all models of cortical map development and adult function need to realize in some form.Air Force Office of Scientific Research (F49620-92-J- 0499, F49620-92-J-0334); Office of Naval Research (N00014-92-J-4015, N00014-91-J-4100); National Science Foundation (IRI-90-24877); British Petroleum (BP 89A-1204

The suitability of PRINCE2 for engineering infrastructure

The view that PRINCE2 was not suitable for application to infrastructure was identified in a study done for a separate purpose, namely, to examine project governance and methodology, which is not reported in this paper. It was asserted by several participants in interviews conducted with a sample of experienced practitioners across a range of industries and disciplines. This paper follows up on those comments by conducting an examination of PRINCE2 from an engineering infrastructure perspective to investigate the validity of this assertion. It takes a deductive, definitional approach to determine if there are any features in it that would cause difficulty for engineering infrastructure use. Seventeen features were examined, and 15 were found to have difficulty in application to the project management of engineering infrastructure. The remaining two found inconsistencies that were unlikely to cause too much difficulty. The features causing difficulty include non-generic terminology for the terms project, lifecycle and stage, using a product rather than a project-based process, use of an iterative product delivery process unsuited to predictive projects, use of a delivery process for all project phases, assumption of a board governance model with inappropriate accountabilities, lack of clarity around the use of the project plan, and absence of a lifecycle appropriate for engineering infrastructure, with PRINCE2 effectively self-declaring its need for a higher-level project lifecycle/ methodology from somewhere else. The paper concludes that PRINCE2 is quite poorly suited to managing engineering infrastructure projects and identifies that some of the reasons for this are likely to also cause difficulty for many ICT projects as well

The suitability of MSP for engineering infrastructure

This paper arose from empirical investigations of practitioner views of both governance and program definitions together with investigations of practitioner reference documents. These investigations indicated that some confusion had arisen in infrastructure project management as a result of approaches used in IT. This paper contributes to the literature evaluating project standards and methodologies by conducting an examination of the suitability of one such source (MSP) for use in engineering infrastructure program management. A deductive definitional approach is taken to identify features that could cause difficulty. Eight features were examined, and six were found to have difficulty in application to engineering infrastructure. The remaining two were found to be terminology differences that are unlikely to cause too much difficulty. The features causing difficulty include an inappropriate definition of a program, use of a non-generic process flow unsuitable for rolling programs, confusion of transformation projects with programs, the presumption of a board governance model, and confusion of large projects with programs. The paper concludes that MSP is quite poorly suited to managing rolling programs, whether they are in engineering infrastructure or IT. Various changes to MSP and PMI publications are recommended

Dynamical virial masses of Lyman-break galaxy haloes at z=3

We improve on our earlier dynamical estimate of the virial masses of the haloes of Lyman-break galaxies (LBGs) at redshift z=3 by accounting for the effects of seeing, slit width, and observational uncertainties. From an analysis of the small number of available rotation curves for LBGs we determine a relation Vc7=(1.9+/-0.2)sigma between circular velocity at a radius of 7kpc, and central line velocity width. We use this relation to transform the measured velocity widths of 32 LBGs to the distribution of circular velocities, for the population of LBGs brighter than R=25.5. We compare this distribution against the predicted distribution for the 'massive-halo' model in which LBGs pinpoint all of the highest mass dark matter haloes at that epoch. The observed LBG circular velocities are smaller than the predicted circular velocities by a factor >1.4+/-0.15. This is a lower limit as we have ignored any increase of circular velocity caused by baryonic dissipation. The massive-halo model predicts a median halo virial mass of 10^12.3 Msol, and a small spread of circular velocities. Our median estimated dynamical mass is <10^(11.6+/-0.3) Msol, which is significantly smaller; furthermore, the spread of our circular velocities is much larger than the massive-halo prediction. These results are consistent with a picture which leaves some of the most-massive haloes available for occupation by other populations which do not meet the LBG selection criteria. The median halo mass recently estimated by Adelberger et al. from the measured clustering of LBGs is 10^(11.86+/-0.3) Msol. Our dynamical analysis appears to favour lower masses and to be more in line with the median mass predicted by the collisional starburst model of Somerville et al., of 10^11.3 Msol. [abridged]Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, MNRAS Letters, Accepte

A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction

The purpose of this paper is to present a rank based approach to cross-sectionallinear factor modelling. The emphasis is on approximating factor exposures in aconsistent manner in order to facilitate the merging of subjective information(from professional investors) with objective information (from accounting dataand/or state of the art quantitative models) in a statistically rigorous way withoutneeding to impose the unrealistic simplifying assumptions typical of more standardtime series models. We deal with the problems of identifying country and sectorreturns by an innovative hierarchical factor structure. This is all discussed fromthe perspective that investment models are not immutable but rather need to bedesigned with characteristics that are fit for their purpose; for example, returningaggregate county and sector forecasts that are consistent by construction