This year Trade Adjustment Assistance has been a stumbling block rather than a stepping stone.

At the beginning of 2015 we asked Stephanie Rickard, Associate Professor in the LSE’s Department of Government, for her predictions for the year. Now, she reflects on her prognostications on US trade policy and on what 2016 may have in store

In the 2016 primary, Democrats are united on trade while Donald Trump’s protectionism means that the Republicans are unusually divided

Historically, Republicans – and Republican presidential candidates – have been in favor of trade liberalization. This positive view of free trade has been challenged by Donald Trump’s protectionist ideology, which is aimed at increasing his support among blue-collar workers. Stephanie Rickard writes that even as the GOP is unusually divided over trade, the Democratic camp is united with both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders opposing the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal pushed by President Obama last year

The electoral consequences of compensation for globalization

As opposition to globalization grows, many governments seek policy responses. One response - the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (EGF) - provides support to workers in EU member states who are made redundant as a result of globalization. Proponents argue that by offsetting some of the costs of globalization, the program may bolster public support for international economic integration and the political parties that support it. I investigate the impact of the EGF on voters’ support for protectionist political parties using a difference-in-differences research design and official election results at the district and commune level. I also examine individual-level voting data. I find that in regions exposed to rising imports, EGF assistance generates a small decrease in voters’ support for one of Europe’s most prominent anti-globalization parties, which ranges in magnitude from zero to 1.5 percentage points. While consistent with the logic of embedded liberalism, this finding suggests that the theorized connection between compensation and public support for globalization may be conditional rather than categorical

Government subsidies could boost British manufacturing - but only under the right conditions

Subsidies can be a vital boost for companies and industries. But they also carry a risk of creating distortions in the economy. Stephanie Rickard identifies three principles that should inform and underpin policy measures in this area to minimise these risks

Biden’s plan to discourage companies from offshoring production may also help him politically.

Last week, alongside its $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan, the Biden administration announced a new tax plan to fund it. This plan includes provisions that would discourage the offshoring of jobs and profits by US companies. Stephanie Rickard finds that voters are more likely to vote against governments when offshoring occurs that moves jobs out of their local area. In light of these findings, Biden’s tax proposals and ‘Buy American’ executive order appear politically savvy

Compensation for displaced workers is unlikely to halt the rise of protectionism in Europe

The EU has created a special instrument – the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund – to compensate workers who have lost their jobs as a result of globalisation. Drawing on a new study, Stephanie Rickard illustrates that while such schemes might be beneficial, they are unlikely to turn the tide of protectionist sentiment growing in Europe

Greece’s creditors are paying the price for not relaxing their conditions prior to the 2015 election

Greece has submitted new proposals to its creditors in an attempt to finally end the deadlock over the release of further bailout funding. Stephanie J. Rickard writes that the present impasse could have been avoided if the strategy pursued by the International Monetary Fund in previous loan programmes to other countries had been repeated. Drawing on a study of democratic countries under IMF programmes, she notes that the IMF has typically relaxed loan programme requirements in the leadup to elections. By failing to do so in the Greek case, the foundations were set for Syriza to come to power on an anti-austerity platform, making a compromise far more difficult

Economic geography, politics, and policy

Globalization has reduced the importance of distance between countries. Yet, within countries, geography matters now more than ever. Economic activities, including production and employment, occur unevenly across space within countries, and globalization consequently impacts various regions differently. Some areas benefit from international economic integration while others lose, and as a result, economic geography shapes citizens’ experience of globalization. Economic geography also influences governments’ responses to globalization and economic shocks. Economic geography consequently merits the attention of political scientists. By examining economic geography, researchers will find new traction on long-standing theoretical debates and valuable insights on recent developments, including the growing backlash against globalization. The challenges of studying economic geography include causal complexity and measurement issues

Partisan technocrats: how leaders matter in international organizations

International organizations make policy decisions that affect the lives of people around the world. We argue that these decisions depend, in part, on the political ideology of the organization's chief executive. In this study, we investigate the influence of the leader of one of the most powerful international organizations: the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We find that when the Managing Director is politically left of center, the IMF requires less labor market liberalization from borrowing countries in exchange for a loan. We also find evidence suggesting that the Managing Director's influence on labor-related loan conditions is independent of the Fund's most powerful members, including the United States. While Managing Directors rarely engage in overtly political behavior, they appear to act as “partisan technocrats” whose ideology influences international financial rescues and specifically the conditions attached to countries’ loans, which shape the distributive consequences of IMF lending