The Role of GIS to Enable Public-Sector Decision Making Under Conditions of Uncertainty

Uncertainty is inherent in environmental planning and decision making. For example, water managers in arid regions are attuned to the uncertainty of water supply due to prolonged periods of drought. To contend with multiple sources and forms of uncertainty, resource managers implement strategies and tools to aid in the exploration and interpretation of data and scenarios. Various GIS capabilities, such as statistical analysis, modeling and visualization are available to decision makers who face the challenge of making decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty. While significant research has lead to the inclusion and representation of uncertainty in GIS, existing GIS literature does not address how decision makers implement and utilize GIS as an assistive technology to contend with deep uncertainty. We address this gap through a case study of water managers in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area, examining how they engage with GIS in making decisions and coping with uncertainty. Findings of a qualitative analysis of water mangers reveal the need to distinguish between implicit and explicit uncertainty. Implicit uncertainty is linked to the decision-making process, and while understood, it is not displayed or revealed separately from the data. In contrast, explicit uncertainty is conceived as separate from the process and is something that can be described or displayed. Developed from twelve interviews with Phoenix-area water managers in 2005, these distinctions of uncertainty clarify the use of GIS in decision making. Findings show that managers use the products of GIS for exploring uncertainty (e.g., cartographic products). Uncertainty visualization emerged as a current practice, but definitions of what constitutes such visualizations were not consistent across decision makers. Additionally, uncertainty was a common and even sometimes helpful element of decision making; rather than being a hindrance, it is seen as an essential component of the process. These findings contradict prior research relating to uncertainty visualization where decision makers often express discomfort with the presence of uncertainty.