The MAGIC algorithm probability is a validated response biomarker of treatment of acute graft-versus-host disease

The Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) algorithm probability (MAP), derived from 2 serum biomarkers, measures damage to crypts in the gastrointestinal tract during graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). We hypothesized that changes in MAP after treatment could validate it as a response biomarker. We prospectively collected serum samples and clinical stages of acute GVHD from 615 patients receiving hematopoietic cell transplantation in 20 centers at initiation of first-line systemic treatment and 4 weeks later. We computed MAPs and clinical responses and compared their abilities to predict 6-month nonrelapse mortality (NRM) in the validation cohort (n = 367). After 4 weeks of treatment, MAPs predicted NRM better than the change in clinical symptoms in all patients and identified 2 groups with significantly different NRM in both clinical responders (40% vs 12%, P < .0001) and nonresponders (65% vs 25%, P < .0001). MAPs successfully reclassified patients for NRM risk within every clinical grade of acute GVHD after 4 weeks of treatment. At the beginning of treatment, patients with a low MAP that rose above the threshold of 0.290 after 4 weeks of treatment had a significant increase in NRM, whereas patients with a high MAP at onset that fell below that threshold after treatment had a striking decrease in NRM that translated into clear differences in overall survival. We conclude that a MAP measured before and after treatment of acute GVHD is a response biomarker that predicts long-term outcomes more accurately than change in clinical symptoms. MAPs have the potential to guide therapy for acute GVHD and may function as a useful end point in clinical trials

Evaluation of Elafin as a Prognostic Biomarker in Acute Graft-versus-Host Disease

Acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is a major cause of mortality in patients undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for hematologic malignancies. The skin is the most commonly involved organ in GVHD. Elafin, a protease inhibitor overexpressed in inflamed epidermis, was previously identified as a diagnostic biomarker of skin GVHD; however, this finding was restricted to a subset of patients with isolated skin GVHD. The main driver of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) in HCT recipients is gastrointestinal (GI) GVHD. Two biomarkers, Regenerating islet-derived 3a (REG3 alpha) and Suppressor of tumorigenesis 2 (ST2), have been validated as biomarkers of GI GVHD that predict long-term outcomes in patients treated for GVHD. We undertook this study to determine the utility of elafin as a prognostic biomarker in the general population of acute GVHD patients in whom GVHD may develop in multiple organs. We analyzed serum elafin concentrations as a predictive biomarker of acute GVHD outcomes and compared it with ST2 and REG3 alpha in a large group of patients treated at multiple centers. A total of 526 patients from the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) who had received corticosteroid treatment for skin GVHD and who had not been previously studied were analyzed. Serum concentrations of elafin, ST2, and REG3 alpha were measured by ELISA in all patients. The patients were divided at random into equal training and validation sets, and a competing-risk regression model was developed to model 6-month NRM using elafin concentration in the training set. Additional models were developed using concentrations of ST2 and REG3 alpha or the combination of all 3 biomarkers as predictors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed using the validation set to evaluate the predictive accuracy of each model and to stratify patients into high- and low-risk biomarker groups. The cumulative incidence of 6-month NRM, overall survival (OS), and 4-week treatment response were compared between the risk groups. Unexpectedly, patients in the low-risk elafin group demonstrated a higher incidence of 6-month NRM, although the difference was not statistically significant (17% versus 11%; P =.19). OS at 6 months (68% versus 68%; P >.99) and 4-week response (78% versus 78%; P =.98) were similar in the low-risk and high-risk elafin groups. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.55 for elafin and 0.75 for the combination of ST2 and REG3 alpha. The addition of elafin to the other 2 biomarkers did not improve the AUC. Our data indicate that serum elafin concentrations measured at the initiation of systemic treatment for acute GVHD did not predict 6-month NRM, OS, or treatment response in a multicenter population of patients treated systemically for acute GVHD. As seen in previous studies, serum concentrations of the GI GVHD biomarkers ST2 and REG3 alpha were significant predictors of NRM, and the addition of elafin levels did not improve their accuracy. These results underscore the importance of GI disease in driving NRM in patients who develop acute GVHD. (C) 2021 The American Society for Transplantation and Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved