What exactly are the properties of scale-free and other networks?

The concept of scale-free networks has been widely applied across natural and physical sciences. Many claims are made about the properties of these networks, even though the concept of scale-free is often vaguely defined. We present tools and procedures to analyse the statistical properties of networks defined by arbitrary degree distributions and other constraints. Doing so reveals the highly likely properties, and some unrecognised richness, of scale-free networks, and casts doubt on some previously claimed properties being due to a scale-free characteristic.Comment: Preprint - submitted, 6 pages, 3 figure

Noise reduction in chaotic time series by a local projection with nonlinear constraints

On the basis of a local-projective (LP) approach we develop a method of noise reduction in time series that makes use of nonlinear constraints appearing due to the deterministic character of the underlying dynamical system. The Delaunay triangulation approach is used to find the optimal nearest neighboring points in time series. The efficiency of our method is comparable to standard LP methods but our method is more robust to the input parameter estimation. The approach has been successfully applied for separating a signal from noise in the chaotic Henon and Lorenz models as well as for noisy experimental data obtained from an electronic Chua circuit. The method works properly for a mixture of additive and dynamical noise and can be used for the noise-level detection.Comment: 11 pages, 12 figures. See http://www.chaosandnoise.or

Time lagged ordinal partition networks for capturing dynamics of continuous dynamical systems

We investigate a generalised version of the recently proposed ordinal partition time series to network transformation algorithm. Firstly we introduce a fixed time lag for the elements of each partition that is selected using techniques from traditional time delay embedding. The resulting partitions define regions in the embedding phase space that are mapped to nodes in the network space. Edges are allocated between nodes based on temporal succession thus creating a Markov chain representation of the time series. We then apply this new transformation algorithm to time series generated by the R\"ossler system and find that periodic dynamics translate to ring structures whereas chaotic time series translate to band or tube-like structures -- thereby indicating that our algorithm generates networks whose structure is sensitive to system dynamics. Furthermore we demonstrate that simple network measures including the mean out degree and variance of out degrees can track changes in the dynamical behaviour in a manner comparable to the largest Lyapunov exponent. We also apply the same analysis to experimental time series generated by a diode resonator circuit and show that the network size, mean shortest path length and network diameter are highly sensitive to the interior crisis captured in this particular data set

Selecting embedding delays: An overview of embedding techniques and a new method using persistent homology

Delay embedding methods are a staple tool in the field of time series analysis and prediction. However, the selection of embedding parameters can have a big impact on the resulting analysis. This has led to the creation of a large number of methods to optimise the selection of parameters such as embedding lag. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the fundamentals of embedding theory for readers who are new to the subject. We outline a collection of existing methods for selecting embedding lag in both uniform and non-uniform delay embedding cases. Highlighting the poor dynamical explainability of existing methods of selecting non-uniform lags, we provide an alternative method of selecting embedding lags that includes a mixture of both dynamical and topological arguments. The proposed method, {\em Significant Times on Persistent Strands} (SToPS), uses persistent homology to construct a characteristic time spectrum that quantifies the relative dynamical significance of each time lag. We test our method on periodic, chaotic and fast-slow time series and find that our method performs similar to existing automated non-uniform embedding methods. Additionally, $n$-step predictors trained on embeddings constructed with SToPS was found to outperform other embedding methods when predicting fast-slow time series

Exploring Model Misspecification in Statistical Finite Elements via Shallow Water Equations

The abundance of observed data in recent years has increased the number of statistical augmentations to complex models across science and engineering. By augmentation we mean coherent statistical methods that incorporate measurements upon arrival and adjust the model accordingly. However, in this research area methodological developments tend to be central, with important assessments of model fidelity often taking second place. Recently, the statistical finite element method (statFEM) has been posited as a potential solution to the problem of model misspecification when the data are believed to be generated from an underlying partial differential equation system. Bayes nonlinear filtering permits data driven finite element discretised solutions that are updated to give a posterior distribution which quantifies the uncertainty over model solutions. The statFEM has shown great promise in systems subject to mild misspecification but its ability to handle scenarios of severe model misspecification has not yet been presented. In this paper we fill this gap, studying statFEM in the context of shallow water equations chosen for their oceanographic relevance. By deliberately misspecifying the governing equations, via linearisation, viscosity, and bathymetry, we systematically analyse misspecification through studying how the resultant approximate posterior distribution is affected, under additional regimes of decreasing spatiotemporal observational frequency. Results show that statFEM performs well with reasonable accuracy, as measured by theoretically sound proper scoring rules.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, 4 tables, submitted versio