On detection of unit roots generalizing the classic Dickey-Fuller approach

If we are given a time series of economic data, a basic question is whether the series is stationary or a random walk, i.e., has a unit root. Whereas the problem to test the unit root null hypothesis against the alternative of stationarity is well studied in the context of classic hypothesis testing in the sense of Neyman, sequential and monitoring approaches have not been studied in detail yet. We consider stopping rules based on a sequential version of the well known Dickey-Fuller test statistics in a setting, where the asymptotic distribution theory becomes a nice and simple application of weak convergence of Ito integrals. More sophisticated extensions studied elsewhere are outlined. Finally, we present a couple of simulations

Random walks - a sequential approach

In this paper sequential monitoring schemes to detect nonparametric drifts are studied for the random walk case. The procedure is based on a kernel smoother. As a by-product we obtain the asymptotics of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator and its as- sociated sequential partial sum process under non-standard sampling. The asymptotic behavior differs substantially from the stationary situation, if there is a unit root (random walk component). To obtain meaningful asymptotic results we consider local nonpara- metric alternatives for the drift component. It turns out that the rate of convergence at which the drift vanishes determines whether the asymptotic properties of the monitoring procedure are determined by a deterministic or random function. Further, we provide a theoretical result about the optimal kernel for a given alternative

Sequential Data-Adaptive Bandwidth Selection by Cross-Validation for Nonparametric Prediction

We consider the problem of bandwidth selection by cross-validation from a sequential point of view in a nonparametric regression model. Having in mind that in applications one often aims at estimation, prediction and change detection simultaneously, we investigate that approach for sequential kernel smoothers in order to base these tasks on a single statistic. We provide uniform weak laws of large numbers and weak consistency results for the cross-validated bandwidth. Extensions to weakly dependent error terms are discussed as well. The errors may be {\alpha}-mixing or L2-near epoch dependent, which guarantees that the uniform convergence of the cross validation sum and the consistency of the cross-validated bandwidth hold true for a large class of time series. The method is illustrated by analyzing photovoltaic data.Comment: 26 page

Sampling Plans for Control-Inspection Schemes Under Independent and Dependent Sampling Designs With Applications to Photovoltaics

The evaluation of produced items at the time of delivery is, in practice, usually amended by at least one inspection at later time points. We extend the methodology of acceptance sampling for variables for arbitrary unknown distributions when additional sampling infor- mation is available to such settings. Based on appropriate approximations of the operating characteristic, we derive new acceptance sampling plans that control the overall operating characteristic. The results cover the case of independent sampling as well as the case of dependent sampling. In particular, we study a modified panel sampling design and the case of spatial batch sampling. The latter is advisable in photovoltaic field monitoring studies, since it allows to detect and analyze local clusters of degraded or damaged modules. Some finite sample properties are examined by a simulation study, focusing on the accuracy of estimation

Nonlinear image processing and filtering: a unified approach based on vertically weighted regression

A class of nonparametric smoothing kernel methods for image processing and filtering that possess edge-preserving properties is examined. The proposed approach is a nonlinearly modified version of the classical nonparametric regression estimates utilizing the concept of vertical weighting. The method unifies a number of known nonlinear image filtering and denoising algorithms such as bilateral and steering kernel filters. It is shown that vertically weighted filters can be realized by a structure of three interconnected radial basis function (RBF) networks. We also assess the performance of the algorithm by studying industrial images