Capturing regional differences in flood vulnerability improves flood loss estimation

Flood vulnerability is quantified by loss models which are developed using either empirical or synthetic approaches. In reality, processes influencing flood risk are stochastic and loss predictions bear significant uncertainty, especially due to differences in vulnerability across exposed objects and regions. However, many state-of-the-art flood loss models are deterministic, i.e., they do not account for data and model uncertainty. The Bayesian Data-Driven Synthetic (BDDS) model was one of the first approaches that used empirical data to reduce the prediction errors at object-level and enhance the reliability of synthetic flood loss models. However, the BDDS model does not account for regional differences in vulnerability which may result in over-/under-estimation of losses in some regions. In order to overcome this limitation, this study introduces a hierarchical parameterization of the BDDS model which enhances synthetic flood loss model predictions by quantifying regional differences in vulnerability. The hierarchical parameterization makes optimal use of the process information contained in the overall data set for the various regional applications, so that it is particularly suitable for cases in which only a small amount of empirical data is available. The implementation and performance of the hierarchical parametrization is demonstrated with the Multi-Colored Manual (MCM) loss functions and empirical damage dataset from the UK consisting of residential buildings from the regions Appleby, Carlisle, Kendal and Cockermouth that suffered losses during the 2015 flood event. The developed model improves prediction accuracy of flood loss compared to MCM by reducing the absolute error and bias by at least 23 and 90%, respectively. The model reliability in terms of hit rate (i.e., the probability that the observed value lies in the 90% high density interval of predictions) is 88% for residential buildings from the same regions used for calibration and 73% for residential buildings from new regions. The approach is of high practical relevance for all regions where only limited amounts of empirical flood loss data is available

Behavioral and emotional problems reported by parents for ages 6 to 17 in a Swiss epidemiological study

In an epidemiological sample of children aged 6 to 17 a total of 1964 parents responded to the Child Behavior Check List (CBCL). A subgroup of 399 parents were interviewed with the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children (DISC). The mean syndrome scale scores in the various sex/age groups were in the lower range of several international studies using the CBCL. Effect analyses revealed sex to be more important than nationality (indigenous vs. immigrant) and age. All effects had to be considered as being small. Convergence between syndrome scales of the CBCL and interview-derived DSMIII-R diagnoses was good for three major groups of disorder

EINAQ - A European educational initiative on Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and associated problems

BACKGROUND: Continuing Medical Education (CME) plays an important role in quality management, especially as quality assurance, for the improvement of healthcare in child and adolescent psychiatry. This requires responsibility regarding quality standards of clinical practice throughout Europe as outlined by the European Union of Medical Specialists (UEMS). OBJECTIVE: Therefore, steps should be undertaken to improve specialists' medical care and harmonize it in Europe. Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) with its many co-existing developmental disorders/problems is the central healthcare problem in child and adolescent psychiatry with high impact on society. Therefore, it was chosen as the target. METHOD: A European Interdisciplinary Network for ADHD Quality Assurance (EINAQ) was founded, didactic material was developed and a faculty of experts from several European countries established to offer all over Europe harmonized courses on ADHD and associated problems. RESULTS: Pilot courses were given in Germany in 2003/2004 and were highly appreciated by the participants. Further courses in Germany and other European countries will take place in 2004. CONCLUSION: EINAQ seems to be on the right track to be part of CME and specialized networks for healthcare in ADHD to improve the provision for mental health problems in children and adolescents in Europe. Cooperative projects with official European bodies like the UEMS -- Section on Child and Adolescent Psychiatry/Psychotherapy and the European Society of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry could strengthen the impact of EINAQ

Psychiatric, neuropediatric, and neuropsychological symptoms in a case of hypomelanosis of Ito

This case report presents a thirteen year-old boy who was diagnosed as having Hypomelanosis of Ito. The developmental history includes severe failure to thrive, and moderate atypical autism as well as diverse clinical and neuropsychological symptoms are present. The pattern of neuropsychological functioning, which can be partially related to the neurophysiological findings, is discussed within the context of existing neuropsychological theories about autistic disorder

A consistent approach for probabilistic residential flood loss modeling in Europe

In view of globally increasing flood losses, a significantly improved and more efficient flood risk management and adaptation policy are needed. One prerequisite is reliable risk assessments on the continental scale. Flood loss modeling and risk assessments for Europe are until now based on regional approaches using deterministic depth‐damage functions. Uncertainties associated with the risk estimation are hardly known. To reduce these shortcomings, we present a novel, consistent approach for probabilistic flood loss modeling for Europe, based on the upscaling of the Bayesian Network Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the private sector, BN‐FLEMOps. The model is applied on the mesoscale in the whole of Europe and can be adapted to regional situations. BN‐FLEMOps is validated in three case studies in Italy, Austria, and Germany. The officially reported loss figures of the past flood events are within the 95% quantile range of the probabilistic loss estimation, for all three case studies. In the Italian, Austrian, and German case studies, the median loss estimate shows an overestimation by 28% (2.1 million euro) and 305% (5.8 million euro) and an underestimation by 43% (104 million euro), respectively. In two of the three case studies, the performance of the model improved, when updated with empirical damage data from the area of interest. This approach represents a step forward in European wide flood risk modeling, since it delivers consistent flood loss estimates and inherently provides uncertainty information. Further validation and tests with respect to adapting the model to different European regions are recommended

Frequency, course and correlates of alcohol use from adolescence to young adulthood in a Swiss community survey

BACKGROUND: Few studies have analyzed the frequency of alcohol use across time from adolescence to young adulthood and its outcome in young adulthood. A Swiss longitudinal multilevel assessment project using various measures of psychopathology and psychosocial variables allowed for the study of the frequency and correlates of alcohol use so that this developmental trajectory may be better understood. METHOD: Alcohol use was studied by a questionnaire in a cohort of N = 593 subjects who had been assessed at three times between adolescence and young adulthood within the Zurich Psychology and Psychopathology Study (ZAPPS). Other assessment included questionnaire data measuring emotional and behavioural problems, life events, coping style, self-related cognitions, perceived parenting style and school environment, and size and efficiency of the social network. RESULTS: The increase of alcohol use from early adolescence to young adulthood showed only a few sex-specific differences in terms of the amount of alcohol consumption and the motives to drink. In late adolescence and young adulthood, males had a higher amount of alcohol consumption and were more frequently looking for drunkenness and feeling high. Males also experienced more negative consequences of alcohol use. A subgroup of heavy or problem drinkers showed a large range of emotional and behavioural problems and further indicators of impaired psychosocial functioning both in late adolescence and young adulthood. CONCLUSION: This Swiss community survey documents that alcohol use is problematic in a sizeable proportion of youth and goes hand in hand with a large number of psychosocial problems

Rho-kinase inhibition blunts renal vasoconstriction induced by distinct signaling pathways in vivo

In addition to intracellular calcium, which activates myosin light chain (MLC) kinase, MLC phosphorylation and hence contraction is importantly regulated by MLC phosphatase (MLCP). Recent evidence suggests that distinct signaling cascades of vasoactive hormones interact with the Rho/Rho kinase (ROK) pathway, affecting the activity of MLCP. The present study measured the impact of ROK inhibition on vascular F-actin distribution and on vasoconstriction induced by activation/inhibition of distinct signaling pathways in vivo in the microcirculation of the split hydronephrotic rat kidney. Local application of the ROK inhibitors Y-27632 or HA-1077 induced marked dilation of pre- and postglomerular vessels. Activation of phospholipase C with the endothelin ET B agonist IRL 1620, inhibition of soluble guanylyl cyclase with 1H-[1,2,4]oxadiazolo-[4,3-a]quinoxalin-1-one (ODQ), or inhibition of adenylyl cyclase with the adenosine A1 agonist N6-cyclopentyladenosine (CPA) reduced glomerular blood flow (GBF) by about 50% through vasoconstriction at different vascular levels. ROK inhibition with Y-27632 or HA-1077, but not protein kinase C inhibition with Ro 31-8220, blunted ET B-induced vasoconstriction. Furthermore, the reduction of GBF and of vascular diameters in response to ODQ or CPA were abolished by pretreatment with Y-27632. ROK inhibitors prevented constriction of preglomerular vessels and of efferent arterioles with equal effectiveness. Confocal microscopy demonstrated that Y-27632 did not change F-actin content and distribution in renal vessels. The results suggest that ROK inhibition might be considered as a potent treatment of renal vasoconstriction, because it interferes with constriction induced by distinct signaling pathways in renal vessels without affecting F-actin structure

Examining a staging model for anorexia nervosa: empirical exploration of a four stage model of severity.

Background: An illness staging model for anorexia nervosa (AN) has received increasing attention, but assessing the merits of this concept is dependent on empirically examining a model in clinical samples. Building on preliminary findings regarding the reliability and validity of the Clinician Administered Staging Instrument for Anorexia Nervosa (CASIAN), the current study explores operationalising CASIAN severity scores into stages and assesses their relationship with other clinical features. Method: In women with DSM-IV-R AN and sub-threshold AN (all met AN criteria using DSM 5), receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis (n = 67) assessed the relationship between the sensitivity and specificity of each stage of the CASIAN. Thereafter chi-square and post-hoc adjusted residual analysis provided a preliminary assessment of the validity of the stages comparing the relationship between stage and treatment intensity and AN sub-types, and explored movement between stages after six months (Time 3) in a larger cohort (n = 171). Results: The CASIAN significantly distinguished between milder stages of illness (Stage 1 and 2) versus more severe stages of illness (Stages 3 and 4), and approached statistical significance in distinguishing each of the four stages from one other. CASIAN Stages were significantly associated with treatment modality and primary diagnosis, and CASIAN Stage at Time 1 was significantly associated with Stage at 6 month follow-up. Conclusions: Provisional support is provided for a staging model in AN. Larger studies with longer follow-up of cases are now needed to replicate and extend these findings and evaluate the overall utility of staging as well as optimal staging models