Advances in nowcasting influenza-like illness rates using search query logs

User-generated content can assist epidemiological surveillance in the early detection and prevalence estimation of infectious diseases, such as influenza. Google Flu Trends embodies the first public platform for transforming search queries to indications about the current state of flu in various places all over the world. However, the original model significantly mispredicted influenza-like illness rates in the US during the 2012–13 flu season. In this work, we build on the previous modeling attempt, proposing substantial improvements. Firstly, we investigate the performance of a widely used linear regularized regression solver, known as the Elastic Net. Then, we expand on this model by incorporating the queries selected by the Elastic Net into a nonlinear regression framework, based on a composite Gaussian Process. Finally, we augment the query-only predictions with an autoregressive model, injecting prior knowledge about the disease. We assess predictive performance using five consecutive flu seasons spanning from 2008 to 2013 and qualitatively explain certain shortcomings of the previous approach. Our results indicate that a nonlinear query modeling approach delivers the lowest cumulative nowcasting error, and also suggest that query information significantly improves autoregressive inferences, obtaining state-of-the-art performance

Schools, families, and social reproduction

Neoliberal educational discourse across the Global North is marked by an increasing homogeneity, but this masks significant socio-spatial differences in the enactment of policy. The authors focus on four facets of roll-out neoliberalism in English education policy that have expanded the function of primary schools, and redrawn the boundary between state and family responsibilities. Specifically, these are increased state support for: (1) working parenthood through provision of wraparound childcare; (2) parent-child relationships through school-led provision of parenting classes; (3) parental involvement in children’s learning; and (4) child development through schools’ fostering of extracurricular activities. The politics of policies that both enhance state responsibility for, and influence in, matters that were previously within the purview of families are complex. The collective impact of these developments has been both to reform how the work of daily and generational social reproduction is done, and to reshape the social reproduction of a classed and gendered society

Int J Softw Tools Technol Transfer DOI 10.1007/s10009-006-0010-1 SPECIAL SECTION ON LEVERAGING APPLICATIONS OF FORMAL METHODS Compositional specification of commercial contracts

Abstract We present a declarative language for compositional specification of contracts governing the exchange of resources. It extends Eber and Peyton Jones’s declarative language for specifying financial contracts (Jones et al. in The Fun of Programming. 2003) to the exchange of money, goods and services amongst multiple parties and complements McCarthy’s Resources, Events and Agents (REA) accounting model (McCarthy in Account Rev. LVII(3), 554–578, 1982) with a viewindependent formal contract model that supports definition of user-defined contracts, automatic monitoring under execution and user-definable analysis of their state before, during and after execution. We provide several realistic examples of commercial contracts and their analyses. A variety of (real) contracts can be expressed in such a fashion as to support their integration, management and analysis in an operational environment tha