Scenario-led modelling of broadleaf forest expansion in Wales

Context Significant changes in the composition and extent of the UK forest cover are likely to take place in the coming decades. Current policy targets an increase in forest area, for example the Welsh Government aims for forest expansion by 2030, and a purposeful shift from non-native conifers to broadleaved tree species, as identified by the UK Forestry Standard Guidelines on Biodiversity. Objectives Using the example of Wales, we aim to generate evidence-based projection of impact of contrasting policy scenarios on the state of forests in the near future, with the view of stimulating debate and aiding decisions concerning plausible outcomes of different policies. Methods We quantified changes in different land use and land cover (LULC) classes in Wales between 2007 and 2015 and used a Multi-layer perceptron-Markov chain ensemble modelling approach to project the state of Welsh forests in 2030 under the current and an alternate policy scenario. Results The current level of expansion and restoration of broadleaf forest in Wales is sufficient to deliver on existing policy goals. We also show effects of a more ambitious afforestation policy on the Welsh landscape. In a key finding, the highest intensity of broadleaf expansion is likely to shift from south-eastern to a more central areas of Wales. Conclusion The study identifies the key predictors of LULC change in Wales. High resolution future land cover simulation maps using these predictors offers an evidence-based tool for forest managers and government officials to test effects of existing and alternative policy scenarios

Tenure, mobility and retention of nurses in Queensland, Australia: 2001 and 2004

[Abstract]: Aim: Data were collected on tenure, mobility and retention of the nursing workforce in Queensland to aid strategic planning by the Queensland Nurses’ Union. Background: Shortages of nurses negatively affect the health outcomes of patients. Population rise is increasing the demand for nurses in Queensland. The supply of nurses is affected by recruitment of new and returning nurses, retention of the existing workforce and mobility within institutions. Methods: A self-reporting, postal survey was undertaken of Queensland Nurses Union members from the major employment sectors of aged care, public acute and community health and private acute and community health. Results: Only 60% of nurses had been with their current employer more than five years. In contrast 90% had been nursing for five years or more and most (80%) expected to remain in nursing for at least another five years. Breaks from nursing were common and part-time positions in the private and aged care sectors offered flexibility. Conclusion: The study demonstrated a mobile nursing workforce in Queensland although data on tenure and future time in nursing suggested that retention in the industry was high. Concern is expressed for replacement of an aging nursing population

Canny good, or quite canny? The semantic-syntactic distribution of canny in the North East of England

The word canny has long been associated with the dialects of the North East of England, most typically in its adjectival sense. However, it has four distinct functions (adjective, adverb, intensifier and modifier in quantifying expressions), which this paper tracks in a diachronic speech corpus. Although the intensifier (e.g. it’s canny good) is documented in the Survey of English Dialects (Upton, Parry and Widowson 1994), it appears in the corpus later than expected with the profile of an incoming form. Results from a judgement task corroborate the corpus trends and show that people’s intuitions about intensifier canny correlate with age as well as the semantics and position of the following adjective, in such a way that shows the intensifier is not fully delexicalised. The present research highlights the value of combining production and perception data in establishing how the origins of a linguistic item affect its distribution in its new function

The UK's exit charge from the EU: insights from modes of accounting

Whatever the final charge on the UK for leaving the EU, the money itself is relatively marginal to the former's public finances. However, this charge is politically sensitive and financially aggravating during one of the longest periods of fiscal austerity in the UK's history. The ways in which leaving is conceptualized have implications for any continuing financial obligations that must be managed within the context of fiscal austerity and political uncertainty. Yet, leaving the EU is a unique transaction: it is not analogous, for example, to a divorce settlement, the leaving of a club, the termination of a commercial contract, the leaving of a treaty‐based international organization, or secession from a state. Analysing the formulation of the charge in terms of the four modes of government accounting—financial reporting, statistical accounting, budgeting, and fiscal sustainability projections—enhances its fiscal transparency. It evidences not only the weakness and inconsistency of the UK's negotiating position but also the dominance in EU thinking of the short‐term budgetary calculations of the 2014–20 Multiannual Financial Framework over its long‐term sustainability without a large net contributor. The final amount paid by the UK will depend on the resolution of competing perspectives as well as on liabilities and contingent liabilities associated with the increasingly complex EU financial architecture

Supporting families in the context of adult traumatic brain injury

Families are fundamental to the wellbeing, quality of life and functional and social outcomes of individuals who sustain traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, the family is often vulnerable and at risk from the challenge of supporting an individual who has been left with long-term neurological disability. Considering the young population often affected, the resulting conditions can have significant emotional and financial burden for families and service providing for their long-term needs. The National Service Framework for Long-term Conditions acknowledges that the whole family is affected by neurological disability and it suggests that a 'whole-family' approach to managing TBI may be useful. This paper will argue that both family systems theory and family-centred care are frameworks that may be helpful in achieving the 'whole-family' approach in practice. However, future research is needed that will assess the efficacy of these and other approaches so that health-care services know the true value of any such intervention.N/

Alcohol's harms to others in Wales, United Kingdom: Nature, magnitude and associations with mental well-being.

Aim: To explore the nature and magnitude of alcohol's harms to others (AHTOs), and associations with mental well-being. Methods: Cross-sectional survey implemented amongst 891 randomly selected Welsh residents (aged 18+ years), via computer assisted telephone interviews. Questions established past 12-month experience of nine direct harms resulting from another person's alcohol consumption (e.g. violence) and five linked outcomes (e.g. concern for a child). The source (e.g. partner/stranger) and frequency of the AHTO were collected, and respondents' socio-demographics, drinking behaviours and mental well-being status. Results: During the past 12 months, 43.5% of respondents had experienced at least one direct harm (45.5% at least one direct harm/linked outcome). In demographically adjusted analyses, the odds of experiencing any direct harm decreased sequentially as age group increased (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AORs]: 1.9 [age 65-74 years] - 4.2 [age 18-34 years]), and was higher amongst binge drinkers (AOR, 1.5, p < 0.05). Associations between age group and suffering the direct harms anxiety, disrupted sleep, feeling threatened, property damage and emotional neglect were found. Experience of feeling threatened was lower amongst females (AOR 0.6, p < 0.05). In demographically adjusted analyses, low mental well-being was higher amongst those who had suffered alcohol-related financial issues (AOR 2.2, p < 0.001), emotional neglect (AOR 2.3, p < 0.01) and property damage (AOR 2.2, p < 0.05). Conclusion: AHTOs place a large, although unequal burden on adults in Wales. Individuals' drinking patterns are associated with experience of AHTOs. Critically, experience of some harms is associated with low mental well-being

Measuring the neighbourhood using UK benefits data: a multilevel analysis of mental health status

Background: Evidence from multilevel research investigating whether the places where people live influence their mental health remains inconclusive. The objectives of this study are to derive small area-level, or contextual, measures of the local social environment using benefits data from the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) and to investigate whether (1) the mental health status of individuals is associated with contextual measures of low income, economic inactivity, and disability, after adjusting for personal risk factors for poor mental health, (2) the associations between mental health and context vary significantly between different population sub-groups, and (3) to compare the effect of the contextual benefits measures with the Townsend area deprivation score. Methods: Data from the Welsh Health Survey 1998 were analysed in Normal response multilevel models of 24,975 individuals aged 17 to 74 years living within 833 wards and 22 unitary authorities in Wales. The mental health outcome measure was the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5) of the Short Form 36 health status questionnaire. The benefits data available were the means tested Income Support and Income-based Job Seekers Allowance, and the non-means tested Incapacity Benefit, Severe Disablement Allowance, Disability Living Allowance and Attendance Allowance. Indirectly age-standardised census ward ratios were calculated to model as the contextual measures. Results: Each contextual variable was significantly associated with individual mental health after adjusting for individual risk factors, so that living in a ward with high levels of claimants was associated with worse mental health. The non-means tested benefits that were proxy measures of economic inactivity from permanent sickness or disability showed stronger associations with individual mental health than the means tested benefits and the Townsend score. All contextual effects were significantly stronger in people who were economically inactive and unavailable for work. Conclusion: This study provides evidence for substantive contextual effects on mental health, and in particular the importance of small-area levels of economic inactivity and disability. DWP benefits data offer a more specific measure of local neighbourhood than generic deprivation indices and offer a starting point to hypothesise possible causal pathways to individual mental health status