Employed Unemployed? On Shadow Employment During Transition

Unregistered employment poses two types of challenges to the researchers: (i) reliably evaluating the wage differential between formally and informally employed and (ii) accounting for the push and pull factors in general and the effects of business cycle in particular. We address the former with the use of propensity score matching and analyse the evolution of the estimated average compensations and the differentials with reference to GDP and unemployment fluctuations. Using 13 years of quarterly labour force survey data from Poland on de iure unemployed but de facto employed individuals we find, that in-the-shadow compensations tend to be higher and procyclical. We also find considerable distributional heterogeneity.undeclared employment, propensity score matching, transition

Shadow Employment In Transition - A Matter of Choice or No Choice?

Shadow employment may follow from two main labour market failures. In the first, official market labour taxation distortions make it ineffective for some agents to engage in registered employment due to a tax wedge, which makes the revenues from unofficial employment higher than the corresponding official ones (tax evasion hypothesis). The alternative explanation draws to labour market tightness - for workers regular employment may be unattainable, which results in seeking earning opportunities beyond the boundaries of the official labour market (market segmentation hypothesis). We use a unique data set from a survey on undeclared employment. Using propensity score matching and decomposition techniques we demonstrate that workers of the shadow economy are characterised by slightly higher endowments, while their revenues are considerably lower than among the matched official economy counterparts. Although unobservable heterogeneity is considerable, results are robust and point to social exclusion and the market segmentation hypothesis.shadow employment, propensity score matching, Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, transition, Poland

Sizing up the “Gray Zone”

The article offers a critical review of methods for measuring the unregistered segment of the economy known as the “gray zone.” The first part of the article focuses on the definitions of the gray zone by economists and official institutions. Subsequently the author describes individual methods for measuring the off-the-books economy, showing their advantages and drawbacks. Additionally, methods used by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) for measuring the tax-evading segment of the economy are discussed. Also presented are gray zone statistics for individual member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) compared with estimates for Poland. The key conclusion of the review is that there is no universal definition of the gray zone and that it is necessary to use several methods for measuring the hidden economy in a specific country. On the other hand, data on the size of the unofficial economy shows that this segment of the economy displays constant growth

Use of statistical methods in forensics

Artykuł podejmuje problematykę wykorzystania metod statystycznych w kryminalistyce. W tym celu przedstawiono rys historyczny opisujący rozwój wykorzystania tych metod. Omówiono również istotę tych metod, wskazując na ich główne zalety i wady. Do tych pierwszych zaliczyć można skwantyfikowanie niepewności związanej z danym dowodem, możliwość oceny prawdopodobieństwa zajścia którejś z wersji wydarzeń czy możliwość testowanie różnego rodzaju hipotez. Do wad towarzyszących wykorzystaniu metod statystycznych w kryminalistyce zaliczyć można konieczność posiadania odpowiedniej wiedzy z zakresu matematyki, rachunku prawdopodobieństwa czy statystyki, brak której utrudni bądź uniemożliwi zastosowanie właściwych narzędzi matematycznych, zwłaszcza przez osoby, które dokonują oceny dowodów, oraz problemy z przekazaniem i interpretacją uzyskanych wyników przez biegłych wykorzystujących metody statystyczne w kryminalistyce, tak aby były one zrozumiałe dla laików. Brak odpowiedniego zrozumienia może prowadzić do wystąpienia mających poważne konsekwencje błędów. Dodatkowo przedstawiono kilka przykładów zastosowania metod statystycznych w kryminalistyce takich jak analiza linii papilarnych, analiza fragmentów szkła i analiza profilu DNA.The article undertakes the issues related to the use of statistical methods in forensics. To this end, a historical background on the development of such methods was presented. The essence of the methods was discussed with particular emphasis on their advantages and drawbacks. The former include the possibilities of quantifying uncertainty related to new evidence, assessing the probability of occurrence of one of versions of events or testing various hypotheses. The drawbacks related to applying statistical methods to forensics include the need for relevant expertise in mathematics, probability, and statistics. The lack of such expertise may impede or prevent the application of proper mathematical tools, especially by persons who evaluate evidence, or cause problems for the court experts who use statistical methods in forensics, in terms of conveying and interpreting the obtained results in a manner that they are understandable to non-professionals. The lack of sufficient understanding may lead to errors of serious consequences. In addition, several examples of the use of statistical methods in forensics are shown, such as fingerprint, glass particie and DNA analyses

Praca nierejestrowana w kraju potransformacyjnym: wybrane fakty dla Polski

Informal (or unregistered) work is common around the world. However research concerning this topic mostly focuses on developing countries and rarely on developed or post-transition economies. This can be explained by much higher estimates of informal work in developing countries. Nevertheless, in developed or post-transition countries the problem of informal work cannot be ignored. Unfortunately, the literature for post-transition countries mostly focuses on estimating the size of informal work. However, a few studies are available which concern the problem of determinants of undertaking informal work and the reasons behind it. Th is article aims to: a) present some interesting examples of research on informal work in Poland which focus on the determinant of informal employment; b) underline the challenges for further research.Praca nierejestrowana jest zjawiskiem powszechnym na świecie. Jednak badania nad nią skupiają się głównie na krajach rozwijających się, rzadko zaś na gospodarkach rozwiniętych albo potransformacyjnych. Fakt ten można wytłumaczyć zdecydowanie większymi rozmiarami pracy nierejestrowanej w krajach rozwijających się. Problem ten nie może jednak zostać zignorowany zarówno w krajach rozwiniętych, jak i krajach potransformacyjnych. Niestety literatura dotycząca pracy nierejestrowanej dla tej ostatniej grupy krajów skupia się głównie na szacowaniu jej rozmiarów. Istnieje jednak kilka badań, które zajmują się determinantami podejmowania pracy nieformalnej i jej przyczynami. Celem tego artykułu jest: a) przedstawienie przykładów badań skupiających się na tych determinantach w przypadku Polski; b) podkreślenie wyzwań dla badań nad pracą nieformalną w przyszłości

Shadow Economy and Its Relations with Tax System and State Budget in Poland

There are controversies regarding existing estimates of the size of shadow economy in Poland. Therefore this paper focuses on the measurement of shadow economy in Poland over the period 1995–2007. On the basis of monetary methods, an econometric model for currency demand is built. Using estimation results, the size of shadow economy is assessed. According to the estimates shadow economy declined in the period 1995–2007 starting from 40% of GDP in 1995 and reaching about 10% of GDP in 2007. The paper also analyses relations between shadow economy, state budget and tax system. A Vector Autoregressive model is estimated and Impulse Reaction Functions are drown, showing that an increase in indirect tax burden enlarges shadow economy. A contrary effect arises due to an increase in: a) direct tax burden; b) budget balance.

Using Modern Technology to Counteract Corruption: Analysis of the Efficacy of e-Government Solutions

Artykuł podejmuje problematykę korupcji i metod jej przeciwdziałania. Celem jest odpowiedź na pytanie, czy zastosowanie w administracji publicznej technologii informacyjnych, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem Internetu, przyczynia się do ograniczenia postrzegania korupcji w danym kraju. Na podstawie literatury zidentyfikowano determinanty korupcji w aspektach: politycznym, gospodarczym i kulturowym. W celu weryfikacji postawionej hipotezy, dotyczącej wpływu rozwoju usług internetowych świadczonych przez państwo na poziom postrzeganej korupcji, przeprowadzono badanie empiryczne z wykorzystaniem danych panelowych dla 129 krajów za lata 2008–2019. Jest to najdłuższy okres, dla którego możliwe jest wykorzystanie aktualnych danych. Uzyskane wyniki potwierdzają skuteczność e‑government jako narzędzia przeciwdziałania korupcji. W artykule zwrócono również uwagę na ograniczenia związane z rozwojem usług elektronicznych w administracji, które wynikają w głównej mierze z barier edukacyjnych i infrastrukturalnych, ale także z dopiero rozwijającego się popytu na takie usługi.In this paper, we focus on corruption and on methods for counteracting it. Our aim is to investigate whether the use of information technology, especially the internet, in public administration contributes to reducing the perception of corruption in a given country. Based on existing research reports, we identify the political, economic and cultural determinants of corruption. In order to verify our hypothesis about the impact of the development of public services provided online on the level of perceived corruption, we use panel data for 129 countries for the 2008–2019 period. Our results confirm the effectiveness of e-government as a tool for counteracting corruption. We also highlight the limitations of the development of electronic services in public administration. These are mainly due to educational and infrastructural barriers, but also on account of freshly growing demand for such services

The Determinants of Unregistered Employment in Poland During Periods of High and Low Economic Growth

The article examines changes in the determinants of unregistered employment in Poland during periods of high and low economic growth. Using Labor Force Survey data and probit models, the authors analyze the structure and determinants of unregistered employment in 2003 and 2008. In 2003 unemployment ran high, while in 2008 joblessness was relatively low and accompanied by high wage pressure. The authors look at two groups of workers in the context of unregistered employment: those officially unemployed and those officially employed but seeking to supplement their incomes by taking up jobs in the unregistered segment of the economy. After analyzing changes in basic demographic and socioeconomic variables, Cichocki and Tyrowicz conclude that unemployed individuals tend to take up jobs in the unregistered segment of the economy both when the labor market suffers from high unemployment and when wage pressure rises. Generally, the bargaining position of employees with regard to employers improved when the labor market revived and when the unregistered segment of the economy shrank in terms of both individual sectors and qualifications. Young unemployed people find it relatively easier to get informal work, the authors conclude, while no specific factors force young employees to look for jobs in the shadow economy. Theoretically, the tax-evading, unregistered segment of the economy could be expected to display pro-cyclical changes, the authors say, shrinking in times of fast economic growth and expanding in periods of poor macroeconomic trends. But in reality the shadow economy provides a considerable measure of flexibility to employers, as a result of which unregistered employment tends to display countercyclical behavior, according to Cichocki and Tyrowicz

Estimating the size of informal economy in a post-transition country – the case of Poland

ABSTRACTThe size of the informal economy in Poland is estimated by means of the Currency Demand Approach (CDA). Using quarterly data for the period 1999–2019, we adopt two separate econometric approaches. First, we specify a single equation model to estimate it with the Fully-Modified OLS method. Second, the CDA coefficients are treated as a cointegrating vector in a cointegrated VAR. The size of the informal economy in Poland is found to have diminished from about 32% of GDP in 2000 to about 12% of GDP in 2019. We provide confidence intervals for our estimates which, to our best knowledge, are rarely presented in the literature; their width ranges from 3 to 7% of GDP

Can People Trust What They Don‘t Understand? Role of Language and Trust for Financial Inclusion

The aim of this paper is to look at determinants of financial inclusion through the lens of comprehension of financial concepts and financial language. Specifically, we are interested in which factors are important should this comprehension be absent. We show that, in the context of finance, communication is an important transmission channel through which individuals are encouraged or discouraged to participate in the financial system. We argue that the unfamiliarity with products and the complexity of language used in the banking sector tend to limit trust granted to financial institutions. We test the hypothesis that linguistic diversity is a strong instrument for the impact of the lack of communication on trust.Applying Ordinary Least Squares and probit regression, quantile regression, and instrumental variables to cross country and individual-level data, we show the importance of individual and cultural characteristics and demonstrate the role of trust and communication for financial inclusion. The outcome is consistent for different model specifications