Climate Change Impact Modelling Cascade – Benefits and Limitations for Conservation Management

Model results can serve as a basis for adaptation in conservation management. They can help understanding the impact of climate change, and support the formulation of management measures. However, model results rely strongly on the quality and the resolution of the input data; they contain significant uncertainties and need to be interpreted in the context of the modelling assumptions. The perception of models and their results differs between disciplines as well as between science and practice. Part of this gap derives from the long ‘model cascade’ used for the assessment of climate related impacts on biodiversity. For this ‘model cascade’ model results from Global Climate Models are often used to drive Regional Downscaled Climate Models and are transferred to hydrological models or distribution models of plants and animals. In fact, most assessments of potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity rely on habitat modelling of plants and animals. But, only few decision makers are trained to analyse the different outcomes of climate impact modelling. If modelling is integrated into conservation management it must be based on an evaluation of the need for information in protected areas and an assessment of model use in the management process, so as to guarantee maximum usability

Climate Change Impact Modelling Cascade – Benefits and Limitations for Conservation Management

Model results can serve as a basis for adaptation in conservation management. They can help understanding the impact of climate change, and support the formulation of management measures. However, model results rely strongly on the quality and the resolution of the input data; they contain significant uncertainties and need to be interpreted in the context of the modelling assumptions. The perception of models and their results differs between disciplines as well as between science and practice. Part of this gap derives from the long ‘model cascade’ used for the assessment of climate related impacts on biodiversity. For this ‘model cascade’ model results from Global Climate Models are often used to drive Regional Downscaled Climate Models and are transferred to hydrological models or distribution models of plants and animals. In fact, most assessments of potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity rely on habitat modelling of plants and animals. But, only few decision makers are trained to analyse the different outcomes of climate impact modelling. If modelling is integrated into conservation management it must be based on an evaluation of the need for information in protected areas and an assessment of model use in the management process, so as to guarantee maximum usability

Computer-aided communication satellite system analysis and optimization

The capabilities and limitations of the various published computer programs for fixed/broadcast communication satellite system synthesis and optimization are discussed. A satellite Telecommunication analysis and Modeling Program (STAMP) for costing and sensitivity analysis work in application of communication satellites to educational development is given. The modifications made to STAMP include: extension of the six beam capability to eight; addition of generation of multiple beams from a single reflector system with an array of feeds; an improved system costing to reflect the time value of money, growth in earth terminal population with time, and to account for various measures of system reliability; inclusion of a model for scintillation at microwave frequencies in the communication link loss model; and, an updated technological environment

Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrological Cycle in Central and Eastern Europe

For the management of protected areas knowledge about the water regime plays a very important role, in particular in areas with lakes, wetlands, marches or floodplains. The local hydrological conditions depend widely on temporal and spatial variations of the main components of the hydrologic cycle and physiographic conditions on site. To preserve a favourable conservation status under changing climatic conditions park managers require information about potential impacts of climate change in their area. The following chapter provides an overview of how climate change affects the hydrological regimes in Central and Eastern Europe. The hydrological impacts for the protected areas are area-specific and vary from region to region. Generally, an increase in temperature enhances the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and thus, leads to an intensification of the hydrological cycle. Key changes in the hydrological system include alterations in the seasonal distribution, magnitude and duration of precipitation and evapotranspiration. This may lead to changes in the water storage, surface runoff, soil moisture and seasonal snow packs as well as to modifications in the mass balance of Central European glaciers. Partly, water resources management can help to counterbalance effects of climate change on stream flow and water availability

Extremism propagation in social networks with hubs

One aspect of opinion change that has been of academic interest is the impact of people with extreme opinions (extremists) on opinion dynamics. An agent-based model has been used to study the role of small-world social network topologies on general opinion change in the presence of extremists. It has been found that opinion convergence to a single extreme occurs only when the average number of network connections for each individual is extremely high. Here, we extend the model to examine the effect of positively skewed degree distributions, in addition to small-world structures, on the types of opinion convergence that occur in the presence of extremists. We also examine what happens when extremist opinions are located on the well-connected nodes (hubs) created by the positively skewed distribution. We find that a positively skewed network topology encourages opinion convergence on a single extreme under a wider range of conditions than topologies whose degree distributions were not skewed. The importance of social position for social influence is highlighted by the result that, when positive extremists are placed on hubs, all population convergence is to the positive extreme even when there are twice as many negative extremists. Thus, our results have shown the importance of considering a positively skewed degree distribution, and in particular network hubs and social position, when examining extremist transmission

eine ethnographische Annäherung

Wie denken BerlinerInnen über die Zukunft ihrer Stadt? Was sind ihre Wünsche, was mögliche Zukunftsängste? Studierende des Masterstudiums Zukunftsforschung haben Antworten auf diese Fragen gesucht und sich in verschiedenen Milieus der Stadt aufgehalten, um – angelehnt an den ethnographischen Ansatz der teilnehmenden Beobachtung – mit den Menschen vor Ort intensive Gespräche zu führen. Sechs Gruppen standen dabei im Fokus: die Gäste und BetreiberInnen alteingesessener Kneipen in Berliner Szenekiezen, TaxifahrerInnen, BewohnerInnen eines Mehrfamilienhauses in Berlin-Pankow, homosexuelle Männer, VerkäuferInnen des Obdachlosenmagazins »Straßenfeger« sowie junge UnternehmerInnen aus dem Bereich der »Social Startups«. Herausgekommen sind einzigartige Blicke auf die Zukunft Berlins, die aus teilweise vernachlässigten Perspektiven vielfältige Hoffnungen, Erwartungen und Ängste von BerlinerInnen zeigen. Die »Gespräche« zeigen, dass die von ihrer jeweils eigenen Geschichte und sozialen Gegenwart geprägten »subkulturellen« Zukunftsbilder eine elementare Rolle für die Wahrnehmung von Berlin spielen. Zentral in allen Zukunftsvorstellungen ist dabei die Auseinandersetzung mit dem zukünftigen Zusammenleben unter den Bedingungen eines sich stetig wandelnden sozialen Umfelds. Das Konzept und die Umsetzung entstand im Wintersemester 2014/15 in einer Übung im »Einsatzfeld Gesellschaft« des Masterstudiengangs Zukunftsforschung an der Freien Universität Berlin, geleitet von Björn Theis

Anticipating and Managing Future Trade-offs and Complementarities between Ecosystem Services

This paper shows how, with the aid of computer models developed in close collaboration with decision makers and other stakeholders, it is possible to quantify and map how policy decisions are likely to affect multiple ecosystem services in future. In this way, potential trade-offs and complementarities between different ecosystem services can be identified, so that policies can be designed to avoid the worst trade-offs, and where possible, enhance multiple services. The paper brings together evidence from across the Rural Economy and Land Use Programme’s Sustainable Uplands project for the first time, with previously unpublished model outputs relating to runoff, agricultural suitability, biomass, heather cover, age, and utility for Red Grouse (Lagopus scotica), grass cover, and accompanying scenario narratives and video. Two contrasting scenarios, based on policies to extensify or intensify land management up to 2030, were developed through a combination of interviews and discussions during site visits with stakeholders, literature review, conceptual modeling, and process-based computer models, using the Dark Peak of the Peak District National Park in the UK as a case study. Where extensification leads to a significant reduction in managed burning and grazing or land abandonment, changes in vegetation type and structure could compromise a range of species that are important for conservation, while compromising provisioning services, amenity value, and increasing wildfire risk. However, where extensification leads to the restoration of peatlands damaged by former intensive management, there would be an increase in carbon sequestration and storage, with a number of cobenefits, which could counter the loss of habitats and species elsewhere in the landscape. In the second scenario, land use and management was significantly intensified to boost UK self-sufficiency in food. This would benefit certain provisioning services but would have negative consequences for carbon storage and water quality and would lead to a reduction in the abundance of certain species of conservation concern. The paper emphasizes the need for spatially explicit models that can track how ecosystem services might change over time, in response to policy or environmental drivers, and in response to the changing demands and preferences of society, which are far harder to anticipate. By developing such models in close collaboration with decision makers and other stakeholders, it is possible to depict scenarios of real concern to those who need to use the research findings. By engaging these collaborators with the research findings through film, it was possible to discuss adaptive options to minimize trade-offs and enhance the provision of multiple ecosystem services under the very different future conditions depicted by each scenario. By preparing for as wide a range of futures as possible in this way, it may be possible for decision makers to act rapidly and effectively to protect and enhance the provision of ecosystem services in the face of unpredictable future change.Additional co-authors: Nanlin Jin, Brian J Irvine, Mike J Kirkby, William E Kunin, Christina Prell, Claire H Quinn, Bill Slee, Sigrid Stagl, Mette Termansen, Simon Thorp, and Fred Worral

NCCAM/NCI Phase 1 Study of Mistletoe Extract and Gemcitabine in Patients with Advanced Solid Tumors

Purpose. European Mistletoe (Viscum album L.) extracts (mistletoe) are commonly used for cancer treatment in Europe. This phase I study of gemcitabine (GEM) and mistletoe in advanced solid cancers (ASC) evaluated: (1) safety, toxicity, and maximum tolerated dose (MTD), (2) absolute neutrophil count (ANC) recovery, (3) formation of mistletoe lectin antibodies (ML ab), (4) cytokine plasma concentrations, (5) clinical response, and (6) pharmacokinetics of GEM. Methods. Design: increasing mistletoe and fixed GEM dose in stage I and increasing doses of GEM with a fixed dose of mistletoe in stage II. Dose limiting toxicities (DLT) were grade (G) 3 nonhematologic and G4 hematologic events; MTD was reached with 2 DLTs in one dosage level. Response in stage IV ASC was assessed with descriptive statistics. Statistical analyses examined clinical response/survival and ANC recovery. Results. DLTs were G4 neutropenia, G4 thrombocytopenia, G4 acute renal failure, and G3 cellulitis, attributed to mistletoe. GEM 1380 mg/m2 and mistletoe 250 mg combined were the MTD. Of 44 patients, 24 developed nonneutropenic fever and flu-like syndrome. GEM pharmacokinetics were unaffected by mistletoe. All patients developed ML3 IgG antibodies. ANC showed a trend to increase between baseline and cycle 2 in stage I dose escalation. 6% of patients showed partial response, 42% stable disease. Median survival was 200 days. Compliance with mistletoe injections was high. Conclusion. GEM plus mistletoe is well tolerated. No botanical/drug interactions were observed. Clinical response is similar to GEM alone