Asymptomatic school-aged children are important drivers of malaria transmission in a high endemicity setting in Uganda.

Achieving malaria elimination requires a better understanding of the transmissibility of human infections in different transmission settings. This study aimed to characterize the human infectious reservoir in a high endemicity setting in eastern Uganda, using gametocyte quantification and mosquito feeding assays. In asymptomatic infections, gametocyte densities were positively associated with the proportion of infected mosquitoes (β=1.60, 95%CI 1.32-1.92, p < 0.0001). Combining transmissibility and abundance in the population, symptomatic and asymptomatic infections were estimated to contribute to 5.3% and 94.7% of the infectious reservoir, respectively. School-aged children (5-15 years-old) contributed to 50.4% of transmission events and were important drivers of malaria transmission

Optimising the deployment of vector control tools against malaria: a data-informed modelling study

Background Concern that insecticide resistant mosquitoes are threatening malaria control has driven the development of new types of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide. Malaria control programmes have a choice of vector control interventions although it is unclear which controls should be used to combat the disease. The study aimed at producing a framework to easily compare the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of different malaria prevention measures currently in widespread use. Methods We used published data from experimental hut trials conducted across Africa to characterise the entomological effect of pyrethroid-only ITNs versus ITNs combining a pyrethroid insecticide with the synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO). We use these estimates to parameterise a dynamic mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria which is validated for two sites by comparing simulated results to empirical data from randomised control trials (RCTs) in Tanzania and Uganda. We extrapolated model simulations for a series of potential scenarios likely across the sub-Saharan African region and include results in an online tool (Malaria INtervention Tool [MINT]) that aims to identify optimum vector control intervention packages for scenarios with varying budget, price, entomological and epidemiological factors. Findings Our model indicates that switching from pyrethroid-only to pyrethroid-PBO ITNs could averted up to twice as many cases, although the additional benefit is highly variable and depends on the setting conditions. We project that annual delivery of long-lasting, non-pyrethroid IRS would prevent substantially more cases over 3-years, while pyrethroid-PBO ITNs tend to be the most cost-effective intervention per case averted. The model was able to predict prevalence and efficacy against prevalence in both RCTs for the intervention types tested. MINT is applicable to regions of sub-Saharan Africa with endemic malaria and provides users with a method of designing intervention packages given their setting and budget. Interpretation The most cost-effective vector control package will vary locally. Models able to recreate results of RCTs can be used to extrapolate outcomes elsewhere to support evidence-based decision making for investment in vector control

Measures of malaria transmission, infection, and disease in an area bordering two districts with and without sustained indoor residual spraying of insecticide in Uganda.

Tororo District, in Eastern Uganda, experienced a dramatic decline in malaria burden starting in 2014 following the implementation of indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) in the setting of repeated long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) distribution campaigns. However, in 2020 malaria began to resurge in Tororo following a change in the active ingredient used for IRS. In this study, epidemiological measures of malaria were compared shortly after the resurgence between two parishes in Tororo District (Kayoro and Osukuru) and one contiguous parish in Busia District (Buteba), where IRS has never been implemented. A cohort of 483 residents from 80 randomly selected households were followed from August 2020 to January 2021. Mosquitoes were collected every 2 weeks using CDC light traps in rooms where participants slept; parasitemia and gametoctyemia measured every 4 weeks by microscopy and PCR; and symptomatic malaria measured by passive surveillance. The annual entomological inoculation rate was significantly higher in Buteba (108.2 infective bites/person/year), compared to Osukuru (59.0, p = 0.001) and Kayoro (27.4, p<0.001). Overall, parasite prevalence was 19.5% by microscopy and 50.7% by PCR, with no significant differences between the three parishes. Among infected individuals, gametocyte prevalence by PCR was 45.5% and similar between sites. The incidence of malaria was significantly higher in Osukuru (2.46 episodes PPY) compared to Buteba (1.47, p = 0.005) and Kayoro (1.09, p<0.001). For participants over 15 years of age, the risk of symptomatic malaria if microscopic parasitemia was present was higher in Osukuru (relative risk [RR] = 2.99, p = 0.03) compared to Buteba. These findings highlight the complex relationships between measures of malaria transmission, infection, and disease, and the potential for excess disease burden, possibly due to waning immunity, in areas where vector control interventions begin to fail after a sustained period of highly effective control