A baseline evaluation of oceanographic and sea ice conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex during 2016-2018

In this paper, we examine sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex as a baseline evaluation for the BaySys 2016–2018 field program time frame. Investigated in particular are spatiotemporal patterns in SST and sea ice state and dynamics, with rankings of the latter to highlight extreme conditions relative to the examined 1981–2010 climatology. Results from this study show that SSTs in northwestern Hudson Bay from May to July, 2016–2018, are high relative to the climatology for SST (1982–2010). SSTs are also warmer in 2016 and 2017 than in 2018 relative to their climatology. Similarly, unusually low sea ice cover existed from August to December of 2016 and July to September of 2017, while unusually high sea ice cover existed in January, February, and October of 2018. The ice-free season was approximately 20 days longer in 2016 than in 2018. Unusually high ice-drift speeds occurred in April of 2016 and 2017 and in May of 2018, coinciding with strong winds in 2016 and 2018 and following strong winds in March 2017. Strong meridional circulation was observed in spring of 2016 and winter of 2017, while weak meridional circulation existed in 2018. In a case study of an extreme event, a blizzard from 7 to 9 March 2017, evaluated using Lagrangian dispersion statistics, is shown to have suppressed sea ice deformation off the coast of Churchill. These results are relevant to describing and planning for possible future pathways and scenarios under continued climate change and river regulation

A baseline evaluation of atmospheric and river discharge conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex during 2016-2018

In this article, we examine atmospheric and river discharge conditions within the Hudson Bay Complex for the BaySys 2016–2018 field program time frame. Investigated in particular is a subset of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis - Interim (ERA-Interim) atmospheric forcing variables, namely 2-m surface temperature, 10-m surface winds, precipitation, and sea-level pressure, in addition to river discharge. Results from this assessment show that 2016 was characterized by unusually warm conditions (terrestrial and marine) throughout the annual cycle; 2017 by strong cyclone activity in March and high precipitation in January, October, and November; and 2018 by cold and windy conditions throughout the annual cycle. Evaluation of terrestrial conditions showed higher than normal land surface temperatures (the Hudson Bay physical watershed) for all of the 2016–2018 period (excluding a colder than normal spell August–November 2018), particularly in January (2016 and 2017), higher than normal precipitation in October (2016 and 2017), and higher than normal terrestrial discharge to the Hudson Bay Complex in March (2016 and 2017), with drier than average June through October (2016–2018)

Simulated impacts of relative climate change and river discharge regulation on sea ice and oceanographic conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex

In this analysis, we examine relative contributions from climate change and river discharge regulation to changes in marine conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex using a subset of five atmospheric forcing scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), river discharge data from the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model, both naturalized (without anthropogenic intervention) and regulated (anthropogenically controlled through diversions, dams, reservoirs), and output from the Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean Ice-Ocean model for the 1981–2070 time frame. Investigated in particular are spatiotemporal changes in sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and thickness, and zonal and meridional sea ice drift in response to (i) climate change through comparison of historical (1981–2010) and future (2021–2050 and 2041–2070) simulations, (ii) regulation through comparison of historical (1981–2010) naturalized and regulated simulations, and (iii) climate change and regulation combined through comparison of future (2021–2050 and 2041–2070) naturalized and regulated simulations. Also investigated is use of the diagnostic known as e-folding time spatial distribution to monitor changes in persistence in these variables in response to changing climate and regulation impacts in the Hudson Bay Complex. Results from this analysis highlight bay-wide and regional reductions in sea ice concentration and thickness in southwest and northeast Hudson Bay in response to a changing climate, and east-west asymmetry in sea ice drift response in support of past studies. Regulation is also shown to amplify or suppress the climate change signal. Specifically, regulation amplifies sea surface temperatures from April to August, suppresses sea ice loss by approximately 30% in March, contributes to enhanced sea ice drift speed by approximately 30%, and reduces meridional circulation by approximately 20% in January due to enhanced zonal drift. Results further suggest that the offshore impacts of regulation are amplified in a changing climate