Hierarchical forecast reconciliation with machine learning

Hierarchical forecasting methods have been widely used to support aligned decision-making by providing coherent forecasts at different aggregation levels. Traditional hierarchical forecasting approaches, such as the bottom-up and top-down methods, focus on a particular aggregation level to anchor the forecasts. During the past decades, these have been replaced by a variety of linear combination approaches that exploit information from the complete hierarchy to produce more accurate forecasts. However, the performance of these combination methods depends on the particularities of the examined series and their relationships. This paper proposes a novel hierarchical forecasting approach based on machine learning that deals with these limitations in three important ways. First, the proposed method allows for a non-linear combination of the base forecasts, thus being more general than the linear approaches. Second, it structurally combines the objectives of improved post-sample empirical forecasting accuracy and coherence. Finally, due to its non-linear nature, our approach selectively combines the base forecasts in a direct and automated way without requiring that the complete information must be used for producing reconciled forecasts for each series and level. The proposed method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and bias using two different data sets coming from the tourism and retail industries. Our results suggest that the proposed method gives superior point forecasts than existing approaches, especially when the series comprising the hierarchy are not characterized by the same patterns

Echinococcus metacestodes as laboratory models for the screening of drugs against cestodes and trematodes

Among the cestodes, Echinococcus granulosus, Echinococcus multilocularis and Taenia solium represent the most dangerous parasites. Their larval stages cause the diseases cystic echinococcosis (CE), alveolar echincoccosis (AE) and cysticercosis, respectively, which exhibit considerable medical and veterinary health concerns with a profound economic impact. Others caused by other cestodes, such as species of the genera Mesocestoides and Hymenolepis, are relatively rare in humans. In this review, we will focus on E. granulosus and E. multilocularis metacestode laboratory models and will review the use of these models in the search for novel drugs that could be employed for chemotherapeutic treatment of echinococcosis. Clearly, improved therapeutic drugs are needed for the treatment of AE and CE, and this can only be achieved through the development of medium-to-high throughput screening approaches. The most recent achievements in the in vitro culture and genetic manipulation of E. multilocularis cells and metacestodes, and the accessability of the E. multilocularis genome and EST sequence information, have rendered the E. multilocularis model uniquely suited for studies on drug-efficacy and drug target identification. This could lead to the development of novel compounds for the use in chemotherapy against echinococcosis, and possibly against diseases caused by other cestodes, and potentially also trematode

Multiscale Computations on Neural Networks: From the Individual Neuron Interactions to the Macroscopic-Level Analysis

We show how the Equation-Free approach for multi-scale computations can be exploited to systematically study the dynamics of neural interactions on a random regular connected graph under a pairwise representation perspective. Using an individual-based microscopic simulator as a black box coarse-grained timestepper and with the aid of simulated annealing we compute the coarse-grained equilibrium bifurcation diagram and analyze the stability of the stationary states sidestepping the necessity of obtaining explicit closures at the macroscopic level. We also exploit the scheme to perform a rare-events analysis by estimating an effective Fokker-Planck describing the evolving probability density function of the corresponding coarse-grained observables

Echinococcus metacestodes as laboratory models for the screening of drugs against cestodes and trematodes

Among the cestodes, Echinococcus granulosus, Echinococcus multilocularis and Taenia solium represent the most dangerous parasites. Their larval stages cause the diseases cystic echinococcosis (CE), alveolar echinococcosis (AE) and cysticercosis, respectively, which exhibit considerable medical and veterinary health concerns with a profound economic impact. Others caused by other cestodes, such as species of the genera Mesocestoides and Hymenolepis, are relatively rare in humans. In this review, we will focus on E. granulosus and E. multilocularis metacestode laboratory models and will review the use of these models in the search for novel drugs that could be employed for chemotherapeutic treatment of echinococcosis. Clearly, improved therapeutic drugs are needed for the treatment of AE and CE, and this can only be achieved through the development of medium-to-high throughput screening approaches. The most recent achievements in the in vitro culture and genetic manipulation of E. multilocularis cells and metacestodes, and the accessability of the E. multilocularis genome and EST sequence information, have rendered the E. multilocularis model uniquely suited for studies on drug-efficacy and drug target identification. This could lead to the development of novel compounds for the use in chemotherapy against echinococcosis, and possibly against diseases caused by other cestodes, and potentially also trematodes

Excretory/Secretory-Products of Echinococcus multilocularis Larvae Induce Apoptosis and Tolerogenic Properties in Dendritic Cells In Vitro

Parasitic helminths are inducers of chronic diseases and have evolved mechanisms to suppress the host immune response. Mostly from studies on roundworms, a picture is currently emerging that helminths secrete factors (E/S-products) that directly act on sentinels of the immune system, dendritic cells, in order to achieve an expansion of immunosuppressive, regulatory T cells (T-reg). Parasitic helminths are currently also intensely studied as therapeutic agents against autoimmune diseases and allergies, which is directly linked to their immunosuppressive activities. The immunomodulatory products of parasitic helminths are therefore of high interest for understanding immunopathology during infections and for the treatment of allergies. The present work was conducted on larvae of the tapeworm E. multilocularis, which grow like a tumor into surrounding host tissue and thus cause the lethal disease alveolar echinococcosis. The authors found that E/S-products from early infective larvae are strong inducers of tolerogenic DC in vitro and show that E/S-products of larvae of the chronic stage lead to an in vitro expansion of Foxp3+ T cells, suggesting that both the expansion of these T cells and poorly responsive DC are important for the establishment and persistence of E. multilocularis larvae within the host

Inverse Fusion PCR Cloning

Inverse fusion PCR cloning (IFPC) is an easy, PCR based three-step cloning method that allows the seamless and directional insertion of PCR products into virtually all plasmids, this with a free choice of the insertion site. The PCR-derived inserts contain a vector-complementary 5′-end that allows a fusion with the vector by an overlap extension PCR, and the resulting amplified insert-vector fusions are then circularized by ligation prior transformation. A minimal amount of starting material is needed and experimental steps are reduced. Untreated circular plasmid, or alternatively bacteria containing the plasmid, can be used as templates for the insertion, and clean-up of the insert fragment is not urgently required. The whole cloning procedure can be performed within a minimal hands-on time and results in the generation of hundreds to ten-thousands of positive colonies, with a minimal background

Addressing Corporate Ties to Slavery: Corporate Apologia in a Discourse of Reconciliation

Pressured by activists to take responsibility, American corporations recently found themselves in the spotlight for their past ties to slavery. Responding to the issue, they stepped into a complex discourse of reconciliation. Taking a rhetorical approach, this article analyzes the response of Aetna Inc. It explores how corporate rhetoric functions within present discourses about historical injustices and illustrates that Aetna\u27s response informed by common strategies of corporate apologia inhibited meaningful reconciliation. The article thus furthers criticisms of (corporate) apologia in the context of historical injustice and raises questions about the potentialities and limitations of corporate rhetoric for reconciliation