Development, Calibration, and Validation of a U.S. White Male Population-Based Simulation Model of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has risen rapidly in the U.S. and western world. The aim of the study was to begin the investigation of this rapid rise by developing, calibrating, and validating a mathematical disease simulation model of EAC using available epidemiologic data.The model represents the natural history of EAC, including the essential biologic health states from normal mucosa to detected cancer. Progression rates between health states were estimated via calibration, which identified distinct parameter sets producing model outputs that fit epidemiologic data; specifically, the prevalence of pre-cancerous lesions and EAC cancer incidence from the published literature and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. As an illustrative example of a clinical and policy application, the calibrated and validated model retrospectively analyzed the potential benefit of an aspirin chemoprevention program.Model outcomes approximated calibration targets; results of the model's fit and validation are presented. Approximately 7,000 cases of EAC could have been prevented over a 30-year period if all white males started aspirin chemoprevention at age 40 in 1965.The model serves as the foundation for future analyses to determine a cost-effective screening and management strategy to prevent EAC morbidity and mortality

Radiofrequency Ablation of Barrett's Esophagus Reduces Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Incidence and Mortality in a Comparative Modeling Analysis

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Quality Indicators for the Management of Barrett’s Esophagus, Dysplasia, and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma: International Consensus Recommendations from the American Gastroenterological Association Symposium

The development of and adherence to quality indicators in gastroenterology, as in all of medicine, is increasing in importance to ensure that patients receive consistent high-quality care. In addition, government-based and private insurers will be expecting documentation of the parameters by which we measure quality, which will likely affect reimbursements. Barrett’s esophagus remains a particularly important disease entity for which we should maintain up-to-date guidelines, given its commonality, potentially lethal outcomes, and controversies regarding screening and surveillance. To achieve this goal, a relatively large group of international experts was assembled and, using the modified Delphi method, evaluated the validity of multiple candidate quality indicators for the diagnosis and management of Barrett’s esophagus. Several candidate quality indicators achieved >80% agreement. These statements are intended to serve as a consensus on candidate quality indicators for those who treat patients with Barrett’s esophagus

Durability of Radiofrequency Ablation in Barrett's Esophagus With Dysplasia

Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) can eradicate dysplasia and intestinal metaplasia in patients with dysplastic Barrett’s esophagus (BE), and reduce rates of esophageal adenocarcinoma. We assessed long-term rates of eradication, durability of neosquamous epithelium, disease progression, and safety of RFA in patients with dysplastic BE