Stock Market Integration between three CEECs, Russia and the UK

This paper estimates a tri-variate VAR-GARCH(1,1)-in-mean model to examine linkages between the stock markets of three Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), specifically the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland, and both the UK and Russia. The adopted framework allows to analyse interdependence by estimating volatility spillovers, and also contagion by testing for possible shifts in the transmission of volatility following the introduction of the euro and EU accession. Further evidence on possible changes in the transmission mechanism (namely, on whether there is contagion) can be obtained by examining the conditional correlations implied by the estimated model over different time periods. The empirical findings suggest that there is significant co-movement (interdependence) of these CEEC markets with both the Russian and the UK ones. Furthermore, whilst the introduction of the euro has had mixed effects, EU accession has resulted in an increase in volatility spillovers between the three CEECs considered and the UK (contagion).Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), volatility spillovers, interdependence, contagion, VAR-GARCH-in-mean model

Information Sharing and Cross-border Entry in European Banking

Information asymmetries can severely limit cross-border border expansion of banks. When a bank enters a new market, it has incomplete information about potential new clients. Such asymmetries are reduced by credit registers, which distribute financial data on bank clients. We investigate the interaction of credit registers and bank entry modes (in form of branching and M&A) by using a new set of time series cross-section data for the EU-27 countries. We study how the presence of public and private credit registers and the type of information exchanged affect bank entry modes during the period 1990-2007. Our analysis shows that the existence of both types of registers increases the share of branching in the overall entries. Additionally, the establishment of public registers reduces concentration ratios, and some banking competition indicators (such as overhead costs/assets). The introduction of a private credit bureau, on the other hand, has no effect on concentration ratios, but positively contributes to competition (by decreasing interest rate margins). This suggests that credit registers facilitate direct entry through a reduction of information asymmetries, which in turn intensifies competition.credit registries, foreign entry, asymmetric information

Stock Returns and Inflation: The Impact of Inflation Targeting

This paper investigates the dynamic interaction between ination and stock returns in four ination targeting countries. We find that following the introduction of formal targets, ination persistence and the magnitude of volatility spillovers between ination and stock returns have been reduced.

Access to Credit Information Promotes Market Entries of European Banks

When granting credit, banks depend on reliable information about the creditworthiness and risk structure of potential borrowers. This information is typically gathered by national credit bureaus. Nationally established banks depend on information from credit bureaus more than ever, particularly when entering a foreign market. This DIW study (which is partially based upon research by the same authors for the European Credit Research Institute and data collected by the institute) investigates whether the existence of credit bureaus influences European bank competition and concludes that they facilitate market entry for foreign banks. In turn, the absence of credit bureaus can create significant disadvantages in competition. In this case, a market entry is then primarily possible via the purchase of an incumbent bank, because the entering institution has essentially no other opportunity to access debtor data. This study also shows that provision of data within the EU is not harmonized overall.Credit registers, Foreign entry asymmetric information

Liquidity Risk, Credit Risk and the Overnight Interest Rate Spread: A Stochastic Volatility Modelling Approach

In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy rate (the policy spread) for the euro area and the UK during the two main phases of the financial crisis that began in late 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited signs of volatility, owing to the breakdown in interbank market activity. The determinants of this volatility are assessed using Stochastic Volatility models to gauge the role played by liquidity risk, credit risk (financial and sovereign), and interest rate expectations. Our results suggest that liquidity risk is the main determinant of the volatility of the policy spread, but also that private bank credit risk has become more apparent in the post-Lehman collapse phase of the crisis for the euro area as financial CDS premia rose due to possible default fears. In addition, the ECB appears to have been more effective in addressing liquidity risk since the onset of the crisis, and this may be related to its greater direct access to a broader range of counterparties and its acceptance of a broader range of eligible collateral. The main implication is that, in crisis times, a sufficiently flexible operational framework for monetary policy implementation produces the most timely response to market tensions.Overnight Interest Rate Spread, Liquidity Risk, Credit Risk, Stochastic Volatility

Liquidity Risk, Credit Risk and the Overnight Interest Rate Spread: A Stochastic Volatility Modelling Approach

In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy rate (the policy spread) for the euro area and the UK during the two main phases of the financial crisis that began in late 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited signs of volatility, owing to the breakdown in interbank market activity. The determinants of this volatility are assessed using Stochastic Volatility models to gauge the role played by liquidity risk, credit risk (financial and sovereign), and interest rate expectations. Our results suggest that liquidity risk is the main determinant of the volatility of the policy spread, but also that private bank credit risk has become more apparent in the post-Lehman collapse phase of the crisis for the euro area as financial CDS premia rose due to possible default fears. In addition, the ECB appears to have been more effective in addressing liquidity risk since the onset of the crisis, and this may be related to its greater direct access to a broader range of counterparties and its acceptance of a broader range of eligible collateral. The main implication is that, in crisis times, a sufficiently flexible operational framework for monetary policy implementation produces the most timely response to market tensions.overnight interest rate spread, liquidity risk, credit risk, stochastic volatility

Enhancement of electron spin lifetime in GaAs crystals: the benefits of dichotomous noise

The electron spin relaxation process in n-type GaAs crystals driven by a fluctuating electric field is investigated. Two different sources of fluctuations are considered: (i) a symmetric dichotomous noise and (ii) a Gaussian correlated noise. Monte Carlo numerical simulations show, in both cases, an enhancement of the spin relaxation time by increasing the amplitude of the external noise. Moreover, we find that the electron spin lifetime versus the noise correlation time: (i) increases up to a plateau in the case of dichotomous random fluctuations, and (ii) shows a nonmonotonic behaviour with a maximum in the case of bulks subjected to a Gaussian correlated noise.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figure

Brutality or frequency? An empirical investigation of the effects of terrorism on economic growth in India

© Presses de Sciences Po (P.F.N.S.P.). Tous droits réservés pour tous pays. In this paper we investigate the effects of terrorism on economic growth in India. Using a Markov switching model, we find evidence that terror has a significant and negative impact on Indian economic growth. Our empirical results also show that the magnitude of these effects is larger in periods of high growth. Finally, we compare the magnitude of the effects of the brutality and the frequency of terror attacks, and conclude that the effect of the frequency is slightly higher than the effect of the brutality

Volatility spillovers and contagion from mature to emerging stock markets

This paper examines volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets and tests for changes in the transmission mechanism - contagion - during turbulences in mature markets. Tri-variate GARCH-BEKK models of returns in global (mature), regional, and local markets are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs), with a dummy capturing parameter shifts during turbulent episodes. LR tests suggest that mature markets influence conditional variances in many emerging markets. Moreover, spillover parameters change during turbulent episodes. Conditional variances in most EMEs rise during these episodes, but there is only limited evidence of shifts in conditional correlations between mature and emerging markets