Computationally efficient calibration of WATCLASS Hydrologic models using surrogate optimization

International audienceIn this approach, exploration of the cost function space was performed with an inexpensive surrogate function, not the expensive original function. The Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments(DACE) surrogate function, which is one type of approximate models, which takes correlation function for error was employed. The results for Monte Carlo Sampling, Latin Hypercube Sampling and Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments(DACE) approximate model have been compared. The results show that DACE model has a good potential for predicting the trend of simulation results. The case study of this document was WATCLASS hydrologic model calibration on Smokey-River watershed

Shadowing unstable orbits of the Sitnikov elliptic 3-body problem

Errors in numerical simulations of gravitating systems can be magnified exponentially over short periods of time. Numerical shadowing provides a way of demonstrating that the dynamics represented by numerical simulations are representative of true dynamics. Using the Sitnikov Problem as an example, it is demonstrated that unstable orbits of the 3-body problem can be shadowed for long periods of time. In addition, it is shown that the stretching of phase space near escape and capture regions is a cause for the failure of the shadowing refinement procedure.Comment: 9 pages, 13 figures, accepted in MNRA

Low-density lipoprotein concentration in the normal left coronary artery tree

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The blood flow and transportation of molecules in the cardiovascular system plays a crucial role in the genesis and progression of atherosclerosis. This computational study elucidates the Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL) site concentration in the entire normal human 3D tree of the LCA.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A 3D geometry model of the normal human LCA tree is constructed. Angiographic data used for geometry construction correspond to end-diastole. The resulted model includes the LMCA, LAD, LCxA and their main branches. The numerical simulation couples the flow equations with the transport equation applying realistic boundary conditions at the wall.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>High concentration of LDL values appears at bifurcation opposite to the flow dividers in the proximal regions of the Left Coronary Artery (LCA) tree, where atherosclerosis frequently occurs. The area-averaged normalized luminal surface LDL concentrations over the entire LCA tree are, 1.0348, 1.054 and 1.23, for the low, median and high water infiltration velocities, respectively. For the high, median and low molecular diffusivities, the peak values of the normalized LDL luminal surface concentration at the LMCA bifurcation reach 1.065, 1.080 and 1.205, respectively. LCA tree walls are exposed to a cholesterolemic environment although the applied mass and flow conditions refer to normal human geometry and normal mass-flow conditions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The relationship between WSS and luminal surface concentration of LDL indicates that LDL is elevated at locations where WSS is low. Concave sides of the LCA tree exhibit higher concentration of LDL than the convex sides. Decreased molecular diffusivity increases the LDL concentration. Increased water infiltration velocity increases the LDL concentration. The regional area of high luminal surface concentration is increased with increasing water infiltration velocity. Regions of high LDL luminal surface concentration do not necessarily co-locate to the sites of lowest WSS. The degree of elevation in luminal surface LDL concentration is mostly affected from the water infiltration velocity at the vessel wall. The paths of the velocities in proximity to the endothelium might be the most important factor for the elevated LDL concentration.</p

Perceptions, attitudes and training needs of primary healthcare professionals in identifying and managing frailty: a qualitative study

PURPOSE: Although frailty can be delayed or prevented by appropriate interventions, these are often not available in countries lacking formal education and infrastructure in geriatrics. The aim of this study was to: (a) explore ideas, perceptions and attitudes of primary health care (PHC) professionals towards frailty in a country where geriatrics is not recognised as a specialty; (b) explore PHC professionals' training needs in frailty; and (c) define components of a frailty educational programme in PHC. METHODS: Qualitative design, using two focus groups with PHC professionals conducted in Thessaloniki, Greece. Focus groups were audio recorded and transcribed. Data were analysed with thematic analysis. RESULTS: In total 31 PHC professionals (mean age: 46 years; gender distribution: 27 females, 4 males) participated in the study (physicians n = 17; nurses n = 12; health visitors n = 2). Four main themes were identified: (1) Perceptions and understanding of frailty; (2) Facilitators and barriers to frailty identification and management; (3) Motivation to participate in a frailty training programme; (4) Education and training. The main barriers for the identification and management of frailty were associated with the healthcare system, including duration of appointments, a focus on prescribing, and problems with staffing of allied health professionals, but also a lack of education. Training opportunities were scarce and entirely based on personal incentive. Professionals were receptive to training either face-to-face or online. A focus on learning practical skills was key. CONCLUSION: Education and training of professionals and interdisciplinary collaboration are essential and much needed for the delivery of person-centred care for people with frailty living in the community

Development of the MESH modelling system for hydrological ensemble forecasting of the Laurentian Great Lakes at the regional scale

International audienceEnvironment Canada has been developing a community environmental modelling system (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire ? MEC), which is designed to facilitate coupling between models focusing on different components of the earth system. The ultimate objective of MEC is to use the coupled models to produce operational forecasts. MESH (MEC ? Surface and Hydrology), a configuration of MEC currently under development, is specialized for coupled land-surface and hydrological models. To determine the specific requirements for MESH, its different components were implemented on the Laurentian Great Lakes watershed, situated on the Canada-US border. This experiment showed that MESH can help us better understand the behaviour of different land-surface models, test different schemes for producing ensemble streamflow forecasts, and provide a means of sharing the data, the models and the results with collaborators and end-users. This modelling framework is at the heart of a testbed proposal for the Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) which should allow us to make use of the North American Ensemble Forecasting System (NAEFS) to improve streamflow forecasts of the Great Lakes tributaries, and demonstrate how MESH can contribute to a Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)

Exercise tolerance and quality of life in patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease

Background: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is known to impact on patients’ physical and mental health. The relationship between performance on treadmill exercise tolerance test (ETT) and health-related quality of life (HRQL)has never been specifically investigated in the setting of CAD. Methods: Consecutive patients undergoing an ETT with the Bruce protocol during a diagnostic workup for CAD (n = 1,631, age 55 ± 12&nbsp;years) were evaluated. Exercise-related indices were recorded. Detailed information on cardiovascular risk factors and past medical history were obtained. HRQLwas assessed with the use of the validated 36-Item Short Form Survey (SF-36) questionnaire. Results: Increasing age and the presence of cardiovascular risk factors and comorbidities correlated with lower scores on the physical and mental health component of SF-36(all P &lt; 0.05). Subjects with arrhythmias during exercise and slow recovery of systolic blood pressure had lower scores on the physical health indices or the Social Role Functioning component (P &lt; 0.05). Achieved target heart rate and good exercise tolerance were independently associated with better scores of the physical and mental health domains of SF-36 and overall HRQLscores (β = 0.05 for target HR and PCS-36, β = 1.86 and β = 1.66 per increasing stage of exercise tolerance and PCS-36 and MCS-36, respectively, P &lt; 0.001 for all associations). Ischemic ECG changes were associated with worse scores on Physical Functioning (β = − 3.2, P = 0.02) and Bodily Pain (β = − 4.55, P = 0.026). Conclusion: ETT parameters are associated with HRQL indices in patients evaluated for possible CAD. Physical conditioning may increase patient well-being and could serve as a complementary target in conjunction with cardiovascular drug therapy

Using the MESH modelling system for hydrological ensemble forecasting of the Laurentian Great Lakes at the regional scale

International audienceEnvironment Canada has been developing a community environmental modelling system (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire ? MEC), which is designed to facilitate coupling between models focusing on different components of the earth system. The ultimate objective of MEC is to use the coupled models to produce operational forecasts. MESH (MEC ? Surface and Hydrology), a configuration of MEC currently under development, is specialized for coupled land-surface and hydrological models. To determine the specific requirements for MESH, its different components were implemented on the Laurentian Great Lakes watershed, situated on the Canada?U.S. border. This experiment showed that MESH can help us better understand the behaviour of different land-surface models, test different schemes for producing ensemble streamflow forecasts, and provide a means of sharing the data, the models and the results with collaborators and end-users. This modelling framework is at the heart of a testbed proposal for the Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) which should allow us to make use of the North American Ensemble Forecasting System (NAEFS) to improve streamflow forecasts of the Great Lakes tributaries, and demonstrate how MESH can contribute to a Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)

Influence of Oscillating Flow on LDL Transport and Wall Shear Stress in the Normal Aortic Arch

Lipid accumulation in the aortic wall is an important factor in the development of atherosclerosis. The Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL) at the surface of the endothelium in relation to Wall Shear Stress (WSS) in the normal human aortic arch under unsteady, normal flow and mass conditions was computationally analysed. Concave sides of the aortic arch exhibit, relatively to the convex ones, elevated LDL levels at the surface of the endothelium for all time steps. At the peak systolic velocity, the LDL level reaches a value 23.0% higher than that at entrance in the ascending-descending aorta region. The corresponding LDL levels at the surface of the endothelium for the near minimum entrance velocity instant reaches 26.0%. During the cardiac cycle, the highest area averaged normalized LDL taken up as compared to the lowest one is 0.69%. WSS plays an important role in the lipid accumulation. Low WSS regions are exposed to high LDL levels at the surface of the endothelium. Regions of elevated LDL levels do not necessarily co-locate to the sites of lowest WSS. The near wall paths of the velocities might be the most important factor for the elevated LDL levels at the surface of the endothelium