Farm-Scale Evaluations of spring-sown genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops: a statistical assessment

Primary results from the Farm Scale Evaluations (FSEs) of spring-sown genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops were published in 2003. We provide a statistical assessment of the results for count data, addressing issues of sample size (n), efficiency, power, statistical significance, variability and model selection. Treatment effects were consistent between rare and abundant species. Coefficients of variation averaged 73% but varied widely. High variability in vegetation indicators was usually offset by large n and treatment effects, whilst invertebrate indicators often had smaller n and lower variability; overall, achieved power was broadly consistent across indicators. Inferences about treatment effects were robust to model misspecification, justifying the statistical model adopted. As expected, increases in n would improve detectability of effects whilst, for example, halving n would have resulted in a loss of significant results of about the same order. 40% of the 531 published analyses had greater than 80% power to detect a 1.5-fold effect; reducing n by one-third would most likely halve the number of analyses meeting this criterion. Overall, the data collected vindicated the initial statistical power analysis and the planned replication. The FSEs provide a valuable database of variability and estimates of power under various sample size scenarios to aid planning of more efficient future studie

Mammals, agri-environment schemes and set-aside – what are the putative benefits?

1. The impacts of agricultural intensification on farmland wildlife have been the subject of increasing concern, particularly over the last two decades. Population declines have occurred for a number of mammalian species, sometimes drastically so, and changes in farming practice are believed to be significant contributory factors. 2. The major policy instruments for delivering environmental benefits on farmland are agri-environment schemes. These encourage farmers to adopt more environmentally sensitive farming practices to promote farmland biodiversity. Additionally, compulsory set-aside, which reduces agricultural surplus, could also have positive impacts on wildlife. In this paper we consider some of the putative benefits of agri-environment schemes and set-aside for mammals. 3. We review how establishment and management options within agri-environment schemes and set-aside might affect habitat resources for mammals. For example, conservation headlands increase plant and invertebrate resources within the crop edge for mammals such as wood mice. Grassy field margins can support communities of smaller mammals, and hedgerows may act as important commuting and hunting routes. Their potential will depend on factors such as seed mixtures used, timing and severity of cutting, and length of time they have been in place. 4. At a farm level, habitat heterogeneity may be increased through organic agriculture, which is supported by some agri-environment schemes. Studies suggest significant benefits to mammals, including wood mice and bats. However, it is increasingly recognized that effective conservation of farmland mammals must seek solutions at the landscape scale, addressing such issues as habitat connectivity between farms. One approach may be the better targeting of scheme agreements. 5. We suggest that agri-environment schemes and set-aside can contribute to the conservation of mammals on farmland. Recent policy changes are likely to have further positive impacts on farmland wildlife but appropriate mammal monitoring programmes must be developed rigorously to assess their effects

Developing indicators for European birds

The global pledge to deliver ‘a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss by 2010’ is echoed in a number of regional and national level targets. There is broad consensus, however, that in the absence of conservation action, biodiversity will continue to be lost at a rate unprecedented in the recent era. Remarkably, we lack a basic system to measure progress towards these targets and, in particular, we lack standard measures of biodiversity and procedures to construct and assess summary statistics. Here, we develop a simple classification of biodiversity indicators to assist their development and clarify purpose. We use European birds, as example taxa, to show how robust indicators can be constructed and how they can be interpreted. We have developed statistical methods to calculate supranational, multi-species indices using population data from national annual breeding bird surveys in Europe. Skilled volunteers using standardized field methods undertake data collection where methods and survey designs differ slightly across countries. Survey plots tend to be widely distributed at a national level, covering many bird species and habitats with reasonable representation. National species' indices are calculated using log-linear regression, which allows for plot turnover. Supranational species' indices are constructed by combining the national species' indices weighted by national population sizes of each species. Supranational, multi-species indicators are calculated by averaging the resulting indices. We show that common farmland birds in Europe have declined steeply over the last two decades, whereas woodland birds have not. Evidence elsewhere shows that the main driver of farmland bird declines is increased agricultural intensification. We argue that the farmland bird indicator is a useful surrogate for trends in other elements of biodiversity in this habitat

A comparison of butterfly populations on organically and conventionally managed farmland

Habitat loss and reduction in quality, together with increasing homogeneity of the farmed landscape and more intensive field management, are believed to be major drivers of biodiversity loss on farmland. Organic farms demonstrate features that are now rare elsewhere in UK farming systems, such as crop rotations incorporating grass leys, exclusion of synthetic pesticides and fertilizers, and reliance on animal and green manures. They may also contain greater densities of uncropped habitats such as hedgerows. In this study, we examined whether organic farming affected populations of one group of insects of conservation interest, butterflies, on farmland. The abundance of butterflies on pairs of organically and conventionally managed farms was recorded over 3 years and a number of habitat and crop variables, likely to be related to butterfly abundance, were also measured. Organic farms attracted significantly more butterflies overall than conventional farms. Significantly more butterflies in both farming systems were recorded over the uncropped field margin than the crop edge. The difference in butterfly abundance between crop edge and field margin was relatively greater in conventional than organic systems. Species richness of butterflies tended to be greater on organic farms. Five species of butterfly were significantly more abundant on organic farms in at least 1 year, while no species was significantly more abundant on conventional farms. Organic and conventional cropping patterns differed, the former having proportionally more grass leys, and hedgerows were larger on organic farms. Although no significant effects of farming system on the numbers of grass or forb species present in the field margin or crop edge were detected, some individual plant species showed differences in frequency between organic and conventional field boundaries. Increasing the extent of organic farming, or practices associated with it, could help to restore biodiversity in agricultural landscapes