Defining responders to therapies by a statistical modeling approach applied to randomized clinical trial data

Background: Personalized medicine is the tailoring of treatment to the individual characteristics of patients. Once a treatment has been tested in a clinical trial and its effect overall quantified, it would be of great value to be able to use the baseline patients' characteristics to identify patients with larger/lower benefits from treatment, for a more personalized approach to therapy. Methods: We show here a previously published statistical method, aimed at identifying patients' profiles associated to larger treatment benefits applied to three identical randomized clinical trials in multiple sclerosis, testing laquinimod vs placebo (ALLEGRO, BRAVO, and CONCERTO). We identified on the ALLEGRO patients' specific linear combinations of baseline variables, predicting heterogeneous response to treatment on disability progression. We choose the best score on the BRAVO, based on its ability to identify responders to treatment in this dataset. We finally got an external validation on the CONCERTO, testing on this new dataset the performance of the score in defining responders and non-responders. Results: The best response score defined on the ALLEGRO and the BRAVO was a linear combination of age, sex, previous relapses, brain volume, and MRI lesion activity. Splitting patients into responders and non-responders according to the score distribution, in the ALLEGRO, the hazard ratio (HR) for disability progression of laquinimod vs placebo was 0.38 for responders, HR = 1.31 for non-responders (interaction p = 0.0007). In the BRAVO, we had similar results: HR = 0.40 for responders and HR = 1.24 for non-responders (interaction p = 0.006). These findings were successfully replicated in the CONCERTO study, with HR = 0.44 for responders and HR=1.08 for non-responders (interaction p = 0.033). Conclusions: This study demonstrates the possibility to refine and personalize the treatment effect estimated in randomized studies by using the baseline demographic and clinical characteristics of the included patients. The method can be applied to any randomized trial in any medical condition to create a treatment-specific score associated to different levels of response to the treatment tested in the trial. This is an easy and affordable method toward therapy personalization, indicating patient profiles related to a larger benefit from a specific drug, which may have implications for taking clinical decisions in everyday clinical practice

Brain health: time matters in multiple sclerosis

publisher: Elsevier articletitle: Brain health: time matters in multiple sclerosis journaltitle: Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders articlelink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.msard.2016.07.003 content_type: article copyright: © 2016 Oxford PharmaGenesis Ltd. Published by Elsevier B.V

Cerebellar volume as imaging outcome in progressive multiple sclerosis

Background and purpose: To assess whether cerebellar volumes changes could represent a sensitive outcome measure in primary-progressive MS. Material and methods: Changes in cerebellar volumes over one-year follow-up, estimated in 26 primary-progressive MS patients and 20 controls with Freesurfer longitudinal pipeline, were assessed using Wilcoxon test and tested for their correlation with disability worsening by a logistic regression. Clinical worsening was defined as EDSS score increase or change of >20% for 25-foot walk test or 9-hole peg test scores at follow-up. Sample sizes for given treatment effects and power were calculated. The findings were validated in an independent cohort of 20 primary-progressive MS patients. Results: Significant changes were detected in brain T1 lesion volume (p<0.01), cerebellar T2 and T1 lesion volume (p<0.01 and p<0.05), cerebellar volume, cerebellar cortex volume, and cerebellar WM volume (p<0.001). Only cerebellar volume and cerebellar cortex volume percentage change were significantly reduced in clinically progressed patients when compared to patients who did not progress (p<0.01; respectively AUC of 0.91 and 0.96). Cerebellar volume percentage changes were consistent in the exploration and validation cohorts (cerebellar volume -1.90±1.11% vs -1.47±2.30%; cerebellar cortex volume -1.68±1.41% vs -1.56±2.23%). Based on our results the numbers of patients required to detect a 30% effect are 81 per arm for cerebellar volume and 162 per arm for cerebellar cortex volume (90% power, type 1 error alpha = 0.05). Conclusions: Our results suggest a role for cerebellar cortex volume and cerebellar volume as potential short-term imaging metrics to monitor treatment effect in primary-progressive MS clinical trials

A randomized, placebo-controlled phase 2 trial of laquinimod in primary progressive multiple sclerosis

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate efficacy, safety, and tolerability of laquinimod in patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS). METHODS: In the randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2 study ARPEGGIO (A Randomized Placebo-controlled trial Evaluating laquinimod in PPMS, Gauging Gradations In MRI and clinical Outcomes), eligible PPMS patients were randomized 1:1:1 to receive once-daily oral laquinimod 0.6 mg or 1.5 mg or matching placebo. Percentage brain volume change (PBVC; primary endpoint) from baseline to week 48 was assessed by MRI. Secondary and exploratory endpoints included clinical and MRI measures. Efficacy endpoints were evaluated using a predefined, hierarchical statistical testing procedure. Safety was monitored throughout the study. The laquinimod 1.5 mg dose arm was discontinued on January 1, 2016 due to findings of cardiovascular events. RESULTS: 374 patients were randomized to laquinimod 0.6 mg (n = 139) or 1.5 mg (n = 95) or placebo (n = 140). ARPEGGIO did not meet the primary endpoint of significant treatment effect with laquinimod 0.6 mg versus placebo on PBVC from baseline to week 48 (adjusted mean difference = 0.016%, p = 0.903). Laquinimod 0.6 mg reduced the number of new T2 brain lesions at week 48 (risk ratio = 0.4; 95% confidence interval, 0.26-0.69; p = 0.001). Incidence of adverse events was higher among patients treated with laquinimod 0.6 mg (83%) versus laquinimod 1.5 mg (66%) and placebo (78%). CONCLUSIONS: Laquinimod 0.6 mg did not demonstrate a statistically significant effect on brain volume loss in PPMS at week 48

Facing the urgency of therapies for progressive MS — a Progressive MS Alliance proposal

Therapies for infiltrative inflammation in multiple sclerosis (MS) have advanced greatly, but neurodegeneration and compartmentalized inflammation remain virtually untargeted as in other diseases of the nervous system. Consequently, many therapies are available for the relapsing–remitting form of MS, but the progressive forms remain essentially untreated. The objective of the International Progressive MS Alliance is to expedite the development of effective therapies for progressive MS through new initiatives that foster innovative thinking and concrete advancements. Based on these principles, the Alliance is developing a new funding programme that will focus on experimental medicine trials. Here, we discuss the reasons behind the focus on experimental medicine trials, the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches and of the programme, and why we hope to advance therapies while improving the understanding of progression in MS. We are soliciting public and academic feedback, which will help shape the programme and future strategies of the Alliance

Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation in Active Multiple Sclerosis: A Real-world Case Series

Objective To examine outcomes in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) treated with autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT) in a real-world setting. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study of PwMS treated with AHSCT at 2 centers in London, UK, consecutively between 2012 and 2019 who had ≥6 months of follow-up or died at any time. Primary outcomes were survival free of multiple sclerosis (MS) relapses, MRI new lesions, and worsening of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score. Adverse events rates were also examined. Results The cohort includes 120 PwMS; 52% had progressive MS (primary or secondary) and 48% had relapsing-remitting MS. At baseline, the median EDSS score was 6.0; 90% of the evaluable cases showed MRI activity in the 12 months preceding AHSCT. Median follow-up after AHSCT was 21 months (range 6–85 months). MS relapse-free survival was 93% at 2 years and 87% at 4 years after AHSCT. No new MRI lesions were detected in 90% of participants at 2 years and in 85% at 4 years. EDSS score progression–free survival (PFS) was 75% at 2 years and 65% at 4 years. Epstein-Barr virus reactivation and monoclonal paraproteinemia were associated with worse PFS. There were 3 transplantation-related deaths within 100 days (2.5%), all after fluid overload and cardiac or respiratory failure. Conclusions Efficacy outcomes of AHSCT in this real-world cohort are similar to those reported in more stringently selected clinical trial populations, although the risks may be higher. Classification of Evidence This study is rated Class IV because of the uncontrolled, open-label design