Downsizing of animal communities triggers stronger functional than structural decay in seed-dispersal networks

Downsizing of animal communities due to defaunation is prevalent in many ecosystems. Yet, we know little about its consequences for ecosystem functions such as seed dispersal. Here, we use eight seed-dispersal networks sampled across the Andes and simulate how downsizing of avian frugivores impacts structural network robustness and seed dispersal. We use a trait-based modeling framework to quantify the consequences of downsizing—relative to random extinctions—for the number of interactions and secondary plant extinctions (as measures of structural robustness) and for long-distance seed dispersal (as a measure of ecosystem function). We find that downsizing leads to stronger functional than structural losses. For instance, 10% size-structured loss of bird species results in almost 40% decline of long-distance seed dispersal, but in less than 10% of structural loss. Our simulations reveal that measures of the structural robustness of ecological networks underestimate the consequences of animal extinction and downsizing for ecosystem functioning.Fil: Donoso, Isabel. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre; AlemaniaFil: Sorensen, Marjorie C.. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre; Alemania. University of Guelph; Canadá. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; AlemaniaFil: Blendinger, Pedro Gerardo. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Kissling, W. Daniel. University of Amsterdam; Países BajosFil: Neuschulz, Eike Lena. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre; AlemaniaFil: Mueller, Thomas. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre; AlemaniaFil: Schleuning, Matthias. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre; Alemani

Patient-specific instrumentation does not improve radiographic alignment or clinical outcomes after total knee arthroplasty: A meta-analysis

Background and purpose: Patient-specific instrumentation (PSI) for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) has been introduced to improve alignment and reduce outliers, increase efficiency, and reduce operation time. In order to improve our understanding of the outcomes of patient-specific instrumentation, we conducted a meta-analysis. Patients and methods: We identified randomized and quasi-randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing patient-specific and conventional instrumentation in TKA. Weighted mean differences and risk ratios were determined for radiographic accuracy, operation time, hospital stay, blood loss, number of surgical trays required, and patient-reported outcome measures. Results: 21 RCTs involving 1,587 TKAs were included. Patient-specific instrumentation resulted in slightly more accurate hip-knee-ankle axis (0.3°), coronal femoral alignment (0.3°, femoral flexion (0.9°), tibial slope (0.7°), and femoral component rotation (0.5°). The risk ratio of a coronal plane outlier (\u3e 3° deviation of chosen target) for the tibial component was statistically significantly increased in the PSI group (RR = 1.64). No significance was found for other radiographic measures. Operation time, blood loss, and transfusion rate were similar. Hospital stay was significantly shortened, by approximately 8 h, and the number of surgical trays used decreased by 4 in the PSI group. Knee Society scores and Oxford knee scores were similar. Interpretation: Patient-specific instrumentation does not result in clinically meaningful improvement in alignment, fewer outliers, or better early patient-reported outcome measures. Efficiency is improved by reducing the number of trays used, but PSI does not reduce operation time

Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains

AIM: Climate change causes shifts in species ranges globally. Terrestrial plant species often lag behind temperature shifts, and it is unclear to what extent animal-dispersed plants can track climate change. Here, we estimate the ability of bird-dispersed plant species to track future temperature change on a tropical mountain. LOCATION: Tropical elevational gradient (500–3500 m.a.s.l.) in the Manú biosphere reserve, Peru. TIME PERIOD: From 1960–1990 to 2061–2080. TAXA: Fleshy-fruited plants and avian frugivores. METHODS: Using simulations based on the functional traits of avian frugivores and fruiting plants, we quantified the number of long-distance dispersal (LDD) events that woody plant species would require to track projected temperature shifts on a tropical mountain by the year 2070 under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5]. We applied this approach to 343 bird-dispersed woody plant species. RESULTS: Our simulations revealed that bird-dispersed plants differed in their climate-tracking ability, with large-fruited and canopy plants exhibiting a higher climate-tracking ability. Our simulations also suggested that even under scenarios of strong and intermediate mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and 4.5), sufficient upslope dispersal would require several LDD events by 2070, which is unlikely for the majority of woody plant species. Furthermore, the ability of plant species to track future changes in temperature increased in simulations with a low degree of trait matching between plants and birds, suggesting that plants in generalized seed-dispersal systems might be more resilient to climate change. MAIN CONCLUSION: Our study illustrates how the functional traits of plants and animals can inform predictive models of species dispersal and range shifts under climate change and suggests that the biodiversity of tropical mountain ecosystems is highly vulnerable to future warming. The increasing availability of functional trait data for plants and animals globally will allow parameterization of similar models for many other seed-dispersal systems

SeaWiFS technical report series. Volume 26: Results of the SeaWiFS Data Analysis Round-Robin, July 1994 (DARR-1994)

The accurate determination of upper ocean apparent optical properties (AOP's) is essential for the vicarious calibration of the sea-viewing wide field-of-view sensor (SeaWiFS) instrument and the validation of the derived data products. To evaluate the role that data analysis methods have upon values of derived AOP's, the first Data Analysis Round-Robin (DARR-94) workshop was sponsored by the SeaWiFS Project during 21-23 July, 1994. The focus of this intercomparison study was the estimation of the downwelling irradiance spectrum just beneath the sea surface, E(sub d)(0(sup -), lambda); the upwelling nadir radiance just beneath the sea surface, L(sub u)(0(sup -), lambda); and the vertical profile of the diffuse attenuation coefficient spectrum, K(sub d)(z, lambda). In the results reported here, different methodologies from four research groups were applied to an identical set of 10 spectroradiometry casts in order to evaluate the degree to which data analysis methods influence AOP estimation, and whether any general improvements can be made. The overall results of DARR-94 are presented in Chapter 1 and the individual methods of the four groups are presented in Chapters 2-5. The DARR-94 results do not show a clear winner among data analysis methods evaluated. It is apparent, however, that some degree of outlier rejection is required in order to accurately estimate L(sub u)(0(sup -), lambda) or E(sub d)(0(sup -), lambda). Furthermore, the calculation, evaluation and exploitation of confidence intervals for the AOP determinations needs to be explored. That is, the SeaWiFS calibration and validation problem should be recast in statistical terms where the in situ AOP values are statistical estimates with known confidence intervals

The Sales Effect of Word of Mouth: A Model for Creative Goods and Estimates for Novels

Weekly sales of creative goods – like music records, movies or books – usually peak shortly after release and then decline quickly. In many cases, however, they follow a hump-shaped pattern where sales increase for some time. A popular explanation for this phenomenon is word of mouth among a population of heterogeneous buyers, but previous studies typically assume buyer homogeneity or neglect word of mouth altogether. In this paper, I study a model of new-product diffusion with heterogeneous buyers that allows for a quantification of the sales effect of word of mouth. The model includes Christmas sales as a special case. All parameters have an intuitive interpretation. Simulation results suggest that the parameters are estimable for data that are not too volatile and that cover a sufficiently large part of a title’s life cycle. I estimate the model for four exemplary novels using scanner data on weekly sales.Meistens erreichen die wöchentlichen Verkäufe von kreativen Produkten wie Musikalben, Kinofilmen oder Büchern kurz nach Veröffentlichung ihren Höhepunkt und nehmen dann schnell ab. In einigen Fällen jedoch zeigen sie einen buckelartigen Verlauf mit zunächst ansteigenden Verkäufen. Eine populäre Erklärung für dieses Phänomen beruht auf der Existenz von Mundpropaganda unter heterogenen Käufern, doch bisherige Studien gehen typischerweise von der Annahme homogener Käufer aus oder vernachlässigen Mundpropaganda gänzlich. Dieses Papier betrachtet ein Modell der Verbreitung neuer Produkte unter heterogenen Käufern, welches eine Quantifizierung der Verkaufswirkung von Mundpropaganda ermöglicht. Das Modell beinhaltet Weihnachtsverkäufe als Spezialfall. Alle Modellparameter haben eine intuitive Bedeutung. Ergebnisse einer Simulation zeigen, dass die Parameter empirisch geschätzt werden können, wenn die Daten einen hinreichend großen Teil des Verkaufszyklus eines Titels abdecken und nicht zu volatil sind. Das Modell wird auf Scannerdaten für vier exemplarische Romane angewendet

Dark sectors 2016 Workshop: community report

This report, based on the Dark Sectors workshop at SLAC in April 2016, summarizes the scientific importance of searches for dark sector dark matter and forces at masses beneath the weak-scale, the status of this broad international field, the important milestones motivating future exploration, and promising experimental opportunities to reach these milestones over the next 5-10 years

An IL1RL1 genetic variant lowers soluble ST2 levels and the risk effects of APOE-ε4 in female patients with Alzheimer’s disease

Changes in the levels of circulating proteins are associated with Alzheimer’s disease (AD), whereas their pathogenic roles in AD are unclear. Here, we identified soluble ST2 (sST2), a decoy receptor of interleukin-33–ST2 signaling, as a new disease-causing factor in AD. Increased circulating sST2 level is associated with more severe pathological changes in female individuals with AD. Genome-wide association analysis and CRISPR–Cas9 genome editing identified rs1921622, a genetic variant in an enhancer element of IL1RL1, which downregulates gene and protein levels of sST2. Mendelian randomization analysis using genetic variants, including rs1921622, demonstrated that decreased sST2 levels lower AD risk and related endophenotypes in females carrying the Apolipoprotein E (APOE)-ε4 genotype; the association is stronger in Chinese than in European-descent populations. Human and mouse transcriptome and immunohistochemical studies showed that rs1921622/sST2 regulates amyloid-beta (Aβ) pathology through the modulation of microglial activation and Aβ clearance. These findings demonstrate how sST2 level is modulated by a genetic variation and plays a disease-causing role in females with AD

The PHENIX Experiment at RHIC

The physics emphases of the PHENIX collaboration and the design and current status of the PHENIX detector are discussed. The plan of the collaboration for making the most effective use of the available luminosity in the first years of RHIC operation is also presented.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure. Further details of the PHENIX physics program available at http://www.rhic.bnl.gov/phenix

Erratum to: "XENON" [Nucl. Phys. B (Proc. Suppl.) 173 (2007) 113–116]

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