Political Competition and Convergence to Fundamentals: With Application to the Political Business Cycle and the Size of Government

We address the problem of how to investigate whether economics, or politics, or both, matter in the explanation of public policy. The problem is first posed in a particular context by uncovering a political business cycle (using Canadian data for 130 years) and by taking up the challenge to make this fact meaningful by finding a transmission mechanism through actual public choices. Since the cycle is in real growth, and it is reasonable to suppose that public expenditure would be involved, the central task then is to investigate the role of (partisan and opportunistic) political factors, as opposed to economic fundamentals, in the evolution of government size.We proceed by asking whether the data allow us to distinguish between the convergence and the nonconvergence hypotheses. Convergence means that political competition forces public spending to converge in the long run to a level dictated by endowments, tastes and technology. Nonconvergence is taken to mean that political factors other than the degree of political competition prevent convergence to that long run. The general idea here, one that may be applied in any situation where the key issue is the role of economics versus politics over time, is that an overtly political factor can be said to play a distinct role in the evolution of public choices if it can be shown to lead to departures from a dynamic path defined by the evolution of economic fundamentals in a competitive political system.public expenditure, size of government, long run versus short run, opportunism, partisanship, political competition, cointegration

A Test of the Market Efficiency Hypothesis with an Application to Canadian Treasury Bill Yields

In this paper we propose a new test for efficiency of spot and forward markets where returns are nonstationary and cointegrated. The test for market efficiency is developed within the framework of a vector error correction (VEC) representation of a bivariate vector autoregression (VAR) model. The proposed test includes some of the popular regression-based tests as its special cases. We then apply the test to the Canadian Treasury bill returns. The data used are average yields of three- and six-month Treasury bills at the last tenders of each month from January 1960 to February 1998. Test results indicate that the bill yields are I(1), cointegrated, and consistent with the bill market efficiency hypothesis

Cointegration and Market Efficiency: An Application to the Canadian Treasury Bill Market

In this study we examine if the spot and forward interest rates of the Canadian Treasury bill market are cointegrated and test the bill market efficiency. The data used are monthly average yields of three- and six-month Treasury bills from July 1962 to February 1996. Both spot and forward rates are found to be I(0) and cointegrated in the Engle-Granger (1987) sense. Tests based on Hansen=s (1982) GMM method support the bill market efficiency hypothesis

The North Korean Economy: Current Issues and Prospects

While the North Korean economy has emerged from a decade of negative growth, it is uncertain if the recovery is sustainable. This paper surveys the path the economy has taken, examines the issues of food, energy and foreign trade, and presents its prospects for the future

Studying teh Role of Political Competition in the Evolution of Government Size Over Long Horizons

In this paper we combine economic factors that have strong trends and political factors that are stationary in a dynamic, empirical model of the evolution of public policy over a very long period in a stable democracy. The role of variation in the intensity of political competition is the substantive focus of our analysis. The approach we develop is applied to disentangle the contributions of economics and politics to the evolution of public expenditure by the Government of Canada over 130 years, from the origin of the modern state to the end of the 20th century, a long period that has not before been investigated. The degree of political competition emerges robustly as the primary, if not the only important political factor in the long run as well as over shorter horizons

MR Imaging of Medullary Streaks in Osteosclerosis: A Case Report

We present a case of medullary sclerosis of the appendicular skeleton in a patient with chronic renal insufficiency for whom MR imaging findings were characteristic. T1- and T2-weighted MR images showed multiple vertical lines (medullary streaks) of low signal intensity in the metaphyses and diaphyses of the distal femur and proximal tibia

Evaluation of acromial spur using ultrasonography

Background The presence of an acromial spur implies a rotator cuff disorder due to impingement between the acromial spur and the rotator cuff. The purpose of the study was to observe acromial spurs using ultrasonography and to compare measurements between plain radiographs and sonograms. Methods We retrospectively enrolled 51 consecutive patients with acromial spurs, which were interpreted on preoperative plain radiographs (supraspinatus outlet view and 30° caudal tilt) and preoperative sonograms. The ultrasonography transducer was held vertically and continuously moved laterally, which corresponded to the long axis of the long head of the biceps. The distance from the most distal margin of the original acromion to the most projected point of the acromial spur was measured. Results No significant difference was found between the plain radiograph and ultrasonography measurements (p=0.186). A moderate to strong correlation was detected between the ultrasonography and supraspinatus outlet-view measurements (r=0.776, p=0.000). Conclusions Anteriorly projected acromial spurs were well-visualized by ultrasonography. No discrepancy in acromial spur length was detected between the use of plain radiography (supraspinatus outlet view and 30° caudal-tilt view) and ultrasonography. The correlation coefficients between the plain radiography and ultrasonography measurements exceeded 0.7

Difference in glenoid retroversion between two-dimensional axial computed tomography and three-dimensional reconstructed images

Background The glenoid version of the shoulder joint correlates with the stability of the glenohumeral joint and the clinical results of total shoulder arthroplasty. We sought to analyze and compare the glenoid version measured by traditional axial two-dimensional (2D) computed tomography (CT) and three-dimensional (3D) reconstructed images at different levels. Methods A total of 30 cases, including 15 male and 15 female patients, who underwent 3D shoulder CT imaging was randomly selected and matched by sex consecutively at one hospital. The angular difference between the scapular body axis and 2D CT slice axis was measured. The glenoid version was assessed at three levels (midpoint, upper one-third, and center of the lower circle of the glenoid) using Friedman’s method in the axial plane with 2D CT images and at the same level of three different transverse planes using a 3D reconstructed image. Results The mean difference between the scapular body axis on the 3D reconstructed image and the 2D CT slice axis was 38.4°. At the level of the midpoint of the glenoid, the measurements were 1.7°±4.9° on the 2D CT images and −1.8°±4.1° in the 3D reconstructed image. At the level of the center of the lower circle, the measurements were 2.7°±5.2° on the 2D CT images and −0.5°±4.8° in the 3D reconstructed image. A statistically significant difference was found between the 2D CT and 3D reconstructed images at all three levels. Conclusions The glenoid version is measured differently between axial 2D CT and 3D reconstructed images at three levels. Use of 3D reconstructed imaging can provide a more accurate glenoid version profile relative to 2D CT. The glenoid version is measured differently at different levels