Game-Theoretic Approach to Tourism Supply Chain Coordination under Demand Uncertainty For Package Holidays

Demand uncertainty is one of the most significant characteristics of the tourism industry. In a typical tourism supply chain (TSC) for package holidays, multiple tour operators reserve rooms from a hotel chain in advance according to their demand predictions. Discrepancies between demand predictions and actual demand lead to shortages or unused room reservations, which inevitably leads to reduced profits for the tour operators concerned. This article examines different TSC coordination strategies to determine how they can be used to help alleviate such negative effects. A game-theoretic approach is used to analyze the different coordination relationships between TSC players. Two coordination programs are discussed. The first is a horizontal coordination program in which tour operators exchange shortages or unused reservations with each other. The second is a vertical coordination program in which tour operators trade shortages or unused reservations with hotel chains. Game models are established and analyzed for the two coordination strategies and uncoordinated conditions, respectively. The analytical results suggest that both coordination strategies can be used to reduce the negative impacts of the demand uncertainty. The results also show that the horizontal coordination is preferred to the vertical coordination when the competition among tour operators is fierce.published_or_final_versio

Geochemical Constrains on Nature of Source Region of The Late Permian Emeishan Continental Flood Basalts, SW China

Abstract in http://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/gold2001/pdf/3488.pd

Chinese herbal medicine for infertility with anovulation: a systematic review.

published_or_final_versio

On the Inability of Markov Models to Capture Criticality in Human Mobility

We examine the non-Markovian nature of human mobility by exposing the inability of Markov models to capture criticality in human mobility. In particular, the assumed Markovian nature of mobility was used to establish a theoretical upper bound on the predictability of human mobility (expressed as a minimum error probability limit), based on temporally correlated entropy. Since its inception, this bound has been widely used and empirically validated using Markov chains. We show that recurrent-neural architectures can achieve significantly higher predictability, surpassing this widely used upper bound. In order to explain this anomaly, we shed light on several underlying assumptions in previous research works that has resulted in this bias. By evaluating the mobility predictability on real-world datasets, we show that human mobility exhibits scale-invariant long-range correlations, bearing similarity to a power-law decay. This is in contrast to the initial assumption that human mobility follows an exponential decay. This assumption of exponential decay coupled with Lempel-Ziv compression in computing Fano's inequality has led to an inaccurate estimation of the predictability upper bound. We show that this approach inflates the entropy, consequently lowering the upper bound on human mobility predictability. We finally highlight that this approach tends to overlook long-range correlations in human mobility. This explains why recurrent-neural architectures that are designed to handle long-range structural correlations surpass the previously computed upper bound on mobility predictability

Late Permian rifting of the South China Craton caused by the Emeishan mantle plume?

Stratigraphic relationships and bulk-rock geochemical data indicate that Upper Permian metabasalts in the Songpan-Ganzi and Yidun terranes, on the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, are part of the Emeishan large igneous province, which is believed to have formed from the Emeishan mantle plume. Eruption of the Emeishan basalts at 260 Ma was coincident with rifting of the western margin of the South China Craton to form the Songpan-Ganzi ocean basin. The spatial and temporal coincidence between basalt eruption and continental rifting, as well as regional doming prior to eruption, suggest that continental break-up was a response to the Late Permian Emeishan plume. The Songpan-Ganzi ocean basin was rapidly filled with Triassic flysch deposits, then deformed and uplifted during Mesozoic collision between the North China and South China Blocks and the Tertiary collision of India and Eurasia.published_or_final_versio

SHRIMP zircon geochronology of the Emeishan Large Igneous Province (SW China): implications for double mass extinctions in Late Permian

Abstract in http://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/gold2001/pdf/3519.pd

Prioritizing genes responsible for host resistance to influenza using network approaches

published_or_final_versio

Modeling of non-point source nitrogen pollution from 1979 to 2008 in Jiaodong Peninsula, China

Efforts to reduce land-based non-point source (NPS) pollutions from watersheds to coastal waters are ongoing all around the world. In this study, annual yield of NPS nitrogen (NPS-N) pollution in Jiaodong Peninsula, China from 1979 to 2008 was estimated. The results showed that: from 1979 to 2008, NPS-N yields exhibited significant inter-annual variations and an increasing trend on decadal scale. High NPS-N yield was mainly found in east and south parts, as well as the urbanized coastal regions in Jiaodong Peninsula. Among the 32 river basins, the three largest basins yielded more than 41.16% of the NPS-N. However, some small coastal watersheds along the South Yellow Sea and Jiaozhou Bay had higher per unit area yield. Most of the small watersheds characterized by seasonal runoff had coastal waters pertain to mild and moderate pollution levels. The ratio of watershed area to shoreline length and the up-stream land use had significant impacts on NPS-N flux through the shoreline. Among the four adjacent coastal areas of Jiaodong Peninsula, Jiaozhou Bay was the most noteworthy one not only because of high levels of land-based NPS-N pollution but also because of its nearly enclosed structure. The combination between integrated coastal zone management and integrated river basin management, land use planning and landscape designing in Jiaodong Peninsula is recommended. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Efforts to reduce land-based non-point source (NPS) pollutions from watersheds to coastal waters are ongoing all around the world. In this study, annual yield of NPS nitrogen (NPS-N) pollution in Jiaodong Peninsula, China from 1979 to 2008 was estimated. The results showed that: from 1979 to 2008, NPS-N yields exhibited significant inter-annual variations and an increasing trend on decadal scale. High NPS-N yield was mainly found in east and south parts, as well as the urbanized coastal regions in Jiaodong Peninsula. Among the 32 river basins, the three largest basins yielded more than 41.16% of the NPS-N. However, some small coastal watersheds along the South Yellow Sea and Jiaozhou Bay had higher per unit area yield. Most of the small watersheds characterized by seasonal runoff had coastal waters pertain to mild and moderate pollution levels. The ratio of watershed area to shoreline length and the up-stream land use had significant impacts on NPS-N flux through the shoreline. Among the four adjacent coastal areas of Jiaodong Peninsula, Jiaozhou Bay was the most noteworthy one not only because of high levels of land-based NPS-N pollution but also because of its nearly enclosed structure. The combination between integrated coastal zone management and integrated river basin management, land use planning and landscape designing in Jiaodong Peninsula is recommended. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd