Stock Market Response to Economic Growth and Interest Rate Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria

This study examined the relationship between macroeconomic variable volatility and stock market return within the context of Blanchard (1981) extension of the Hicks (1937) IS-LM hypothesis, using exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedascity estimation techniques to analysis monthly data sourced on the Nigerian economy from January 1985 to December 2013. Our result shows that stock prices responds significantly to innovations in the interest rate and the real gross domestic product (RGDP), we therefore recommends that policy makers on the one hand should consider volatility in both the interest rate and the RGDP when making policies aimed at enhancing stock market development. On the other hand, market practitioners are expected to make provisions for volatility in interest rate and the RGDP when making portfolio decision

Stock Market Volatility: Does our Fundamentals Matter?

This study used EGARCH estimation techniques to examine the impact of the systematic risk emanating from the macroeconomy on stock market volatility based on monthly data sourced from 1985 to 2013 on the Nigerian economy. Our results show that all the macroeconomic variables tested exerts on stock market pricing and that the stock market pricing is most influenced by exchange rate volatility. We thus recommend that policy makers on the one hand should pay close attention to the innovations in the macroeconomic variables when formulating macroeconomic or financial stability policy. On the other hand, market practitioners should calibrate volatility of macroeconomic variables in their portfolio decision making process

Are African stock markets efficient? Evidence from wavelet unit root test for random walk

In this paper, we used the recently developed frequency based wavelet unit root test alongside a number of time domain unit root tests to examine the validity or otherwise of the random walk hypothesis for seven African largest markets. Unlike previous studies that affirms the validity of the random walk behaviour for African markets, our results reveal that when frequency domain is factored into stock market behaviour framework, evidence abound to reject the null of unit root test for each of the African markets studied. This implies that African markets are inefficient, contributes to growth and provide good opportunities for arbitrage trading. The results have critical implications for investors, policy makers as well as the academics

Stock Market Response to Economic Growth and Interest Rate Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria

This study examined the relationship between macroeconomic variable volatility and stock market return within the context of Blanchard (1981) extension of the Hicks (1937) IS-LM hypothesis, using EGARCH estimation techniques to analysis monthly data sourced on the Nigerian economy from January 1985 to December 2013. Our result shows that stock prices responds significantly to innovations in the interest rate and the RGDP, we therefore recommends that policy makers on the one hand should consider volatility in both  the interest rate and the RGDP when making policies aimed at enhancing stock market development. On the other hand, market practitioners are expected to make provisions for volatility in interest rate and the RGDP when making portfolio decisions. Keywords: Interest rate, Real Gross Domestic Product, All Share Price, Volatility, EGARCH JEL Classifications: C22, G01, G14, G1

IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS AND EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON STOCK MARKET BEHAVIOR IN NIGERIA

The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being mad

Monetary Policy Dynamics and the Stock Market Movements: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

The contributions of the stock market to economic growth can never be over-emphasized. In this paper, we used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound testing estimation techniques to examine the existence of any relationship between monetary policy instruments and the stock market in Nigeria based on the data sourced from 1985 to 2013. From the results obtained, it can be deduced that monetary policy instruments significantly exerts on stock market behaviour in Nigeria. We recommends that policy makers should put in place policies that aimed at adjusting the interest rate upward, reduce or at best keep at constant the money supply growth rate, increase the net credit to the private sector and manipulate the exchange rate regime so as to boost stock market

OIL AND FISCAL BEHAVIOUR: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA

Oil plays an important role in the economic growth of Nigeria given the fact that over seventy per cent (70%) of her Gross National Product comes from oil and natural gas. The essence of this paper is to study the impact of the fluctuation in oil prices on both the government revenue and government expenditure in Nigeria as an emerging oil export based economy. Four theoretical hypotheses: Revenue (tax) – Spending hypothesis; Spend – Revenue (tax) hypothesis; Fiscal synchronization hypothesis; and Fiscal neutrality/institutional separation hypothesis have been identified in the literature to explain the relationship between government revenue and expenditure. The debate on the existence of a relationship between government revenue and government expenditure has remained inconclusive in nature. This paper intends to know how fluctuation in oil price affects the relationship between government revenue and expenditure in Nigeria. We intend to achieve this objective by using Granger causality test and Vector Error Correction (VEC) model to analyse monthly data from Nigerian economy from 1970 to 2014. The result of the analyse is expected to have significant policy implications for virtually all the various economic agents, for instance, policy makers among others will find the result useful as it will provide platform for good policy formulation that will aid fiscal management in the economy

Stock Market Response to Economic Growth and Interest Rate Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria

This study examined the relationship between macroeconomic variable volatility and stock market return within the context of Blanchard (1981) extension of the Hicks (1937) IS-LM hypothesis, using exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedascity estimation techniques to analysis monthly data sourced on the Nigerian economy from January 1985 to December 2013. Our result shows that stock prices responds significantly to innovations in the interest rate and the real gross domestic product (RGDP), we therefore recommends that policy makers on the one hand should consider volatility in both the interest rate and the RGDP when making policies aimed at enhancing stock market development. On the other hand, market practitioners are expected to make provisions for volatility in interest rate and the RGDP when making portfolio decisions

The effect of fiscal and monetary policies interaction on stock market performance: Evidence from Nigeria

This study examines the impact of the interactions between fiscal and monetary policies on stock market behaviour (ASI) and the impact of the volatility of these interactions on the Nigerian stock market. The study analysed monthly data using the ARDL and EGARCH models. The results show the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies influence on stock market returns in Nigeria. The ARDL results show evidence of long run relationship between ASI and Monetary-fiscal policies. The results from the volatility estimates show that the ASI volatility is largely sensitive to volatility in the interactions between the two policy instruments. The results suggest calibrating both the monetary and fiscal policies in a single model when formulating stock market policy as their interaction exerts significantly on stock market behaviour, thus both policies should be considered in tandem. & 2017 Faculty of Commerce and Business Administration, Future University. Production and Hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)