Trade in the Triad: how easy is the access to large markets?.

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Market access in global and regional trade

This paper develops a method to measure difficulties in market access over a large set of countries (both developing and developed) and industries, during the period 1980-2006. We use a micro-founded heterogeneous-consumers model to estimate the impact of national borders on global and regional trade flows. Results show that difficulties faced by developing countries' exporters in accessing developed markets are 50% higher than those faced by Northern exporters. These international fragmentations have however experienced a noticeable fall since 1980 in both Southern and Northern markets, and in all industries. It is twenty three times easier to enter those markets for a Southern country exporter in 2006 than in 1980. While tariffs still have an influence on trade patterns, they do not seem to explain an important part of the border effect. Last, our theory-based measure offers a renewal of the assessment of the impact of regional trading arrangements. The EU, NAFTA, ASEAN and MERCOSUR agreements all tend to reduce the estimated degree of market fragmentation within those zones, with the expected ranking between their respective trade impact.Market Access; North-South Trade; Regional integration; Border Effects; Gravity, Tariffs; Trade Costs; Distances

Le marché unique et l'intégration commerciale en Europe

Vingt-cinq ans après l’abolition de toutes les barrières formelles « traditionnelles » au commerce (droits de douane et quotas principalement), le passage au Marché unique était censé assurer qu’au 1er janvier 1993 le commerce entre États membres serait libre de toute entrave. Il s’agissait notamment de faire en sorte que les firmes étrangères ne soient pas désavantagées par rapport aux firmes nationales en raison de différences de normes techniques ou sanitaires, de formalités au passage de la frontière, ou de biais domestique dans l’attribution des contrats publics (...)

GeoDist: the CEPII’s distances and geographical database

We have calculated and made available different measures of bilateral distances (in kms) available for most countries across the world (225 countries in the current version of the database). For most of them, different calculations of “intra-national distances” are also available. There are two distinct files: a country-specific one (geo_cepii.xls or geo_cepii.dta) and a bilateral one (dist_cepii.xls or dist_cepii.dta), including the set of different distance variables and common dummy variables used in gravity equations to identify particular links between countries such as colonial past, common languages, contiguity. A common use of those files is the estimation of gravity equations describing bilateral trade flows. We try to improve upon the existing similar datasets in terms of geographical coverage, measurement and number of variables provided

Trade in the Triad: how easy is the access to large markets?

In this paper, we measure market access between the United States, the EU, and Japan (the Triad), using the effect of national borders on trade patterns. We investigate overall and industry-level trends of bilateral trade openness and provide explanations for those using proxies for bilateral observed protection (tariffs and NTBs), home bias of consumers, product differentiation, and levels of FDI. The explanations related to actual protection, home bias and substitutability of goods put together explain a large part of the border effect between blocs of the Triad, although they do not explain the whole of the border effect puzzle

BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-level

We document BACI, our international trade database covering more than 200 countries and 5,000 products, between 1994 and 2006. Original procedures have been developed to reconcile data reported by almost 150 countries to the United Nations Statistics Division, which disseminate them via COMTRADE. When both exporting and importing countries do report, we have two different figures for the same flow, which is useful to reconcile in a single figure. Firstly, as import values are reported CIF (cost, insurance and freight) and the exports are reported FOB (free on board), CIF costs have to be estimated and removed from imports values to compute FOB import values. We regress the unit-values ratios reported for a given elementary flow by gravity variables and for years, and world median unit-value for each product category . The second step is an evaluation of the reliability of country reporting, based on the reporting distances among partners. We decompose the absolute value of the ratios of mirror flows using a (weighted) variance analysis, and an index is build for each country. These reporting qualities are used as weights in the reconciliation of each bilateral trade flow twice reported. Taking advantage of this double information on each flow, we end up with a large coverage of countries not reporting at a given level of the product classification with a special care in the treatment of unit-values. BACI is freely available to users of COMTRADE database in our webpage: http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/bdd/baci.ht

Notes on CEPII’s distances measures

We have calculated and made available different measures of bilateral distances (in kms) available for most countries across the world (225 countries in the current version of the database). For most of them, different calculations of “intra-national distances” are also available. There are two distinct files: a country-specific one (geo_cepii.xls or geo_cepii.dta) and a bilateral one (dist_cepii.xls or dist_cepii.dta), including the set of different distance variables and common dummy variables used in gravity equations to identify particular links between countries such as colonial past, common languages, contiguity. A common use of those files is the estimation of gravity equations describing bilateral trade flows. We try to improve upon the existing similar datasets in terms of geographical coverage, measurement and number of variables provided

Notes on CEPII’s distances measures: the GeoDist database

GeoDist makes available the exhaustive set of gravity variables used in Mayer and Zignago (2005). GeoDist provides several geographical variables, in particular bilateral distances measured using city-level data to assess the geographic distribution of population inside each nation. We have calculated different measures of bilateral distances available for most countries across the world (225 countries in the current version of the database). For most of them, different calculations of “intra-national distances” are also available. The GeoDist webpage provides two distinct files: a country-specific one (geo_cepii) and a dyadic one (dist_cepii) including a set of different distance and common dummy variables used in gravity equations to identify particular links between countries such as colonial past, common languages, contiguity. We try to improve upon the existing similar datasets in terms of geographical coverage, quality of measurement and number of variables provided

BACI: International trade database at the product-level. The 1994-2007 version

This paper documents the construction of BACI, our international trade database, which covers more than 200 countries and 5,000 products, between 1994 and 2007. New approaches have been developed to reconcile data reported by almost 150 countries to the United Nations Statistics Division, collated via COMTRADE. When both exporting and importing countries report to Comtrade, we have two different figures for the same flow, so it is useful to reconcile these into a single figure. To do this, firstly, as import values are reported CIF (cost, insurance and freight) while exports are reported FOB (free on board), transport and insurance rates have to be estimated and removed from import values. We regress the observed CIF/FOB ratios for a given flow on gravity variables and a product-specific world median unit value. In a second step we evaluate the reliability of countries reporting. We decompose the absolute value of the ratios of mirror flows using a (weighted) variance analysis. These measures of the reliability of reported data are used as weights in the reconciliation of each bilateral trade flow which is reported twice. Taking advantage of this bilateral information on each flow, we end up with a large coverage of countries and more reliable data, especially in terms of unit-values. BACI is freely available online to users of COMTRADE database, in different product classifications

BACI: A World Database of International Trade at the Product-level (The 1995-2004 Version)

This paper document the construction of BACI, our international trade database covering more than 200 countries and 5,000 products, between 1995 and 2004. Original procedures have been developed to reconcile data reported by almost 150 countries to the United Nations Statistics Division, which disseminate them via COMTRADE. When both exporting and importing countries do report, we have two different figures for the same flow. In order to have a single coherent figure for each bilateral flow, we have need to reconcile them. Firstly, as import values are reported CIF (cost, insurance and freight) and the exports are reported FOB (free on board), CIF costs have to be estimated and removed from imports values to compute FOB import values. We regress the unit-values ratios reported for a given elementary flow by gravity variables: bilateral distance, dummies for adjacent or landlocked countries and for years, and world median unit-value for each product category (we consider a non-linear relationship between CIF costs and distance by introducing also the square distance). As expected, we find that CIF costs increase with distance and decrease with unit value. The second step is an evaluation of the reliability of country reporting, based on the declaration distances among partners. In order to evaluate this quality of countries reporting (as exporters or importers) we decompose the absolute value of the ratios of mirror flows using a (weighted) variance analysis, and an index is build for every country. Finally, the qualities of declaration are used as weights in the reconciliation of each bilateral trade flow twice reported. Taking advantage of this double information on each flow, we end up en plus?? with a large coverage of countries not reporting at a given level of the product classification. BACI provides the most disaggregated international reconciled values of bilateral flows, for the largest possible number of countries and years, with a special care in the treatment of unit-values. BACI is freely available to users of COMTRADE database in our webpage: http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/bdd/baci.ht