Reframing Optimal Control Problems for Infectious Disease Management in Low-Income Countries

Optimal control theory can be a useful tool to identify the best strategies for the management of infectious diseases. In most of the applications to disease control with ordinary differential equations, the objective functional to be optimized is formulated in monetary terms as the sum of intervention costs and the cost associated with the burden of disease. We present alternate formulations that express epidemiological outcomes via health metrics and reframe the problem to include features such as budget constraints and epidemiological targets. These alternate formulations are illustrated with a compartmental cholera model. The alternate formulations permit us to better explore the sensitivity of the optimal control solutions to changes in available budget or the desired epidemiological target. We also discuss some limitations of comprehensive cost assessment in epidemiology

Ecological interventions to prevent and manage zoonotic pathogen spillover

Spillover of a pathogen from awildlife reservoir into a human or livestock host requires the pathogen to overcome a hierarchical series of barriers. Interventions aimed at one or more of these barriers may be able to prevent the occurrence of spillover. Here, we demonstrate how interventions that target the ecological context in which spillover occurs (i.e. ecological interventions) can complement conventional approaches like vaccination, treatment, disinfection and chemical control. Accelerating spillover owing to environmental change requires effective, affordable, durable and scalable solutions that fully harness the complex processes involved in cross-species pathogen spillover. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover’

Averting wildlife-borne infectious disease epidemics requires a focus on socio-ecological drivers and a redesign of the global food system.

A debate has emerged over the potential socio-ecological drivers of wildlife-origin zoonotic disease outbreaks and emerging infectious disease (EID) events. This Review explores the extent to which the incidence of wildlife-origin infectious disease outbreaks, which are likely to include devastating pandemics like HIV/AIDS and COVID-19, may be linked to excessive and increasing rates of tropical deforestation for agricultural food production and wild meat hunting and trade, which are further related to contemporary ecological crises such as global warming and mass species extinction. Here we explore a set of precautionary responses to wildlife-origin zoonosis threat, including: (a) limiting human encroachment into tropical wildlands by promoting a global transition to diets low in livestock source foods; (b) containing tropical wild meat hunting and trade by curbing urban wild meat demand, while securing access for indigenous people and local communities in remote subsistence areas; and (c) improving biosecurity and other strategies to break zoonosis transmission pathways at the wildlife-human interface and along animal source food supply chains

Women, but not men, have prolonged QT interval if depressed after an acute coronary syndrome

Aims Depression is a mortality risk marker for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients. We hypothesized that the QT interval, a predictor for risk of sudden cardiac death, was related to depressive symptoms in ACS. Methods and results We performed an analysis of admission electrocardiograms from hospitalized patients with unstable angina or non-ST elevation myocardial infarction from two prospective observational studies of depression in ACS. Depressive symptoms were assessed with the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), and depression was defined as BDI score ≥10, compared with <5. Patients with QRS duration ≥120 ms and/or who were prescribed antidepressants were excluded. QT intervals were adjusted for heart rate by two methods. Our analyses included 243 men (40.0% with BDI ≥10) and 139 women (62.0% with BDI ≥ 10). Among women, average QT corrected by Fridericia's method (QTcF) was 435.4 ± 26.6 ms in the depressed group, vs. 408.6 ± 24.3 ms in the non-depressed group (P< 0.01). However, among men, average QTcF was not significantly different between the depressed and non-depressed groups (415.4 ± 23.6 vs. 412.0 ± 25.8 ms, P= 0.29). In multivariable analyses that included hypertension, diabetes, ACS type, left ventricular ejection fraction <0.40, and use of QT-prolonging medication, there was a statistically significant interaction between depressive symptoms and gender (P< 0.001). Conclusions In this ACS sample, prolongation of the QT interval was associated with depressive symptoms in women, but not in men. Further investigation of the mechanism of the relationship between depression and abnormal cardiac repolarization, particularly in women, is warranted to develop treatment strategies

Comparing the probability of stroke by the Framingham risk score in hypertensive Korean patients visiting private clinics and tertiary hospitals

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The purpose of this study was to investigate the pattern of distribution of risk factors for stroke and the 10-year probability of stroke by the Framingham risk score in hypertensive patients visiting private clinics vs. tertiary hospitals.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 2,490 hypertensive patients who attended 61 private clinics (1088 patients) and 37 tertiary hospitals (1402 patients) were enrolled. The risk factors for stroke were evaluated using a series of laboratory tests and physical examinations, and the 10-year probability of stroke was determined by applying the Framingham stroke risk equation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The proportion of patients who had uncontrolled hypertension despite the use of antihypertensive agents was 49% (66 and 36% of patients cared for at private clinics and tertiary hospitals, respectively; p < 0.001). The average 10-year probability of stroke by the Framingham risk score in hypertensive patients was 21% (approximately 2.2 times higher than of the risk of stroke in the Korean Cancer Prevention Study [KCPS] cohort) and was higher in patients attending tertiary hospitals compared to private clinics (16 and 24% of patients attending private clinics and tertiary hospitals, respectively; p < 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Since the 10-year probability of stroke by the Framingham risk score in hypertensive patients attending tertiary hospitals was higher than the risk for patients attending private clinics. We suggest that the more aggressive interventions are needed to prevent and early detect an attack of stroke in hypertensive patients attending tertiary hospitals.</p

Serial assessment of the electrocardiographic strain pattern for prediction of new‐onset heart failure during antihypertensive treatment: the LIFE study

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/106144/1/ejhfhfq224.pd

Preventing Left Ventricular Hypertrophy by ACE Inhibition in Hypertensive Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: A prespecified analysis of the Bergamo Nephrologic Diabetes Complications Trial (BENEDICT)

OBJECTIVE—In patients with type 2 diabetes, left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) predicts cardiovascular events, and the prevention of LVH is cardioprotective. We sought to compare the effect of ACE versus non-ACE inhibitor therapy on incident electrocardiographic (ECG) evidence of LVH (ECG-LVH)

Electrocardiographic diagnosis of left ventricular hypertrophy in aortic valve disease: evaluation of ECG criteria by cardiovascular magnetic resonance

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is a hallmark of chronic pressure or volume overload of the left ventricle and is associated with risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The purpose was to evaluate different electrocardiographic criteria for LVH as determined by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR). Additionally, the effects of concentric and eccentric LVH on depolarization and repolarization were assessed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>120 patients with aortic valve disease and 30 healthy volunteers were analysed. As ECG criteria for LVH, we assessed the Sokolow-Lyon voltage/product, Gubner-Ungerleider voltage, Cornell voltage/product, Perugia-score and Romhilt-Estes score.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All ECG criteria demonstrated a significant correlation with LV mass and chamber size. The highest predictive values were achieved by the Romhilt-Estes score 4 points with a sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 81%. There was no difference in all ECG criteria between concentric and eccentric LVH. However, the intrinsicoid deflection (V6 37 ± 1.0 ms vs. 43 ± 1.6 ms, p < 0.05) was shorter in concentric LVH than in eccentric LVH and amplitudes of ST-segment (V5 -0.06 ± 0.01 vs. -0.02 ± 0.01) and T-wave (V5 -0.03 ± 0.04 vs. 0.18 ± 0.05) in the anterolateral leads (p < 0.05) were deeper.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>By calibration with CMR, a wide range of predictive values was found for the various ECG criteria for LVH with the most favourable results for the Romhilt-Estes score. As electrocardiographic correlate for concentric LVH as compared with eccentric LVH, a shorter intrinsicoid deflection and a significant ST-segment and T-wave depression in the anterolateral leads was noted.</p

Fat1 deletion promotes hybrid EMT state, tumour stemness and metastasis

FAT1, which encodes a protocadherin, is one of the most frequently mutated genes in human cancers1–5. However, the role and the molecular mechanisms by which FAT1 mutations control tumour initiation and progression are poorly understood. Here, using mouse models of skin squamous cell carcinoma and lung tumours, we found that deletion of Fat1 accelerates tumour initiation and malignant progression and promotes a hybrid epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) phenotype. We also found this hybrid EMT state in FAT1-mutated human squamous cell carcinomas. Skin squamous cell carcinomas in which Fat1 was deleted presented increased tumour stemness and spontaneous metastasis. We performed transcriptional and chromatin profiling combined with proteomic analyses and mechanistic studies, which revealed that loss of function of FAT1 activates a CAMK2–CD44–SRC axis that promotes YAP1 nuclear translocation and ZEB1 expression that stimulates the mesenchymal state. This loss of function also inactivates EZH2, promoting SOX2 expression, which sustains the epithelial state. Our comprehensive analysis identified drug resistance and vulnerabilities in FAT1-deficient tumours, which have important implications for cancer therapy. Our studies reveal that, in mouse and human squamous cell carcinoma, loss of function of FAT1 promotes tumour initiation, progression, invasiveness, stemness and metastasis through the induction of a hybrid EMT state