3,717 research outputs found
Modeling Pine as a Carbon Sequestering Crop in Arkansas
Carbon Sequestration, Loblolly Pine, Carbon Offset, Carbon Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
Accelerating Asymptotically Exact MCMC for Computationally Intensive Models via Local Approximations
We construct a new framework for accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo in
posterior sampling problems where standard methods are limited by the
computational cost of the likelihood, or of numerical models embedded therein.
Our approach introduces local approximations of these models into the
Metropolis-Hastings kernel, borrowing ideas from deterministic approximation
theory, optimization, and experimental design. Previous efforts at integrating
approximate models into inference typically sacrifice either the sampler's
exactness or efficiency; our work seeks to address these limitations by
exploiting useful convergence characteristics of local approximations. We prove
the ergodicity of our approximate Markov chain, showing that it samples
asymptotically from the \emph{exact} posterior distribution of interest. We
describe variations of the algorithm that employ either local polynomial
approximations or local Gaussian process regressors. Our theoretical results
reinforce the key observation underlying this paper: when the likelihood has
some \emph{local} regularity, the number of model evaluations per MCMC step can
be greatly reduced without biasing the Monte Carlo average. Numerical
experiments demonstrate multiple order-of-magnitude reductions in the number of
forward model evaluations used in representative ODE and PDE inference
problems, with both synthetic and real data.Comment: A major update of the theory and example
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