Statistical Agent Based Modelization of the Phenomenon of Drug Abuse

We introduce a statistical agent based model to describe the phenomenon of drug abuse and its dynamical evolution at the individual and global level. The agents are heterogeneous with respect to their intrinsic inclination to drugs, to their budget attitude and social environment. The various levels of drug use were inspired by the professional description of the phenomenon and this permits a direct comparison with all available data. We show that certain elements have a great importance to start the use of drugs, for example the rare events in the personal experiences which permit to overcame the barrier of drug use occasionally. The analysis of how the system reacts to perturbations is very important to understand its key elements and it provides strategies for effective policy making. The present model represents the first step of a realistic description of this phenomenon and can be easily generalized in various directions.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figure

Can screening and brief intervention lead to population-level reductions in alcohol-related harm?

A distinction is made between the clinical and public health justifications for screening and brief intervention (SBI) against hazardous and harmful alcohol consumption. Early claims for a public health benefit of SBI derived from research on general medical practitioners' (GPs') advice on smoking cessation, but these claims have not been realized, mainly because GPs have not incorporated SBI into their routine practice. A recent modeling exercise estimated that, if all GPs in England screened every patient at their next consultation, 96% of the general population would be screened over 10 years, with 70-79% of excessive drinkers receiving brief interventions (BI); assuming a 10% success rate, this would probably amount to a population-level effect of SBI. Thus, a public health benefit for SBI presupposes widespread screening; but recent government policy in England favors targeted versus universal screening, and in Scotland screening is based on new registrations and clinical presentation. A recent proposal for a national screening program was rejected by the UK National Health Service's National Screening Committee because 1) there was no good evidence that SBI led to reductions in mortality or morbidity, and 2) a safe, simple, precise, and validated screening test was not available. Even in countries like Sweden and Finland, where expensive national programs to disseminate SBI have been implemented, only a minority of the population has been asked about drinking during health-care visits, and a minority of excessive drinkers has been advised to cut down. Although there has been research on the relationship between treatment for alcohol problems and population-level effects, there has been no such research for SBI, nor have there been experimental investigations of its relationship with population-level measures of alcohol-related harm. These are strongly recommended. In this article, conditions that would allow a population-level effect of SBI to occur are reviewed, including their political acceptability. It is tentatively concluded that widespread dissemination of SBI, without the implementation of alcohol control measures, might have indirect influences on levels of consumption and harm but would be unlikely on its own to result in public health benefits. However, if and when alcohol control measures were introduced, SBI would still have an important role in the battle against alcohol-related harm

Baby Business: a randomised controlled trial of a universal parenting program that aims to prevent early infant sleep and cry problems and associated parental depression

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Infant crying and sleep problems (e.g. frequent night waking, difficulties settling to sleep) each affect up to 30% of infants and often co-exist. They are costly to manage and associated with adverse outcomes including postnatal depression symptoms, early weaning from breast milk, and later child behaviour problems. Preventing such problems could improve these adverse outcomes and reduce costs to families and the health care system. Anticipatory guidance-i.e. providing parents with information about normal infant sleep and cry patterns, ways to encourage self-settling in infants, and ways to develop feeding and settling routines <it>before </it>the onset of problems-could prevent such problems. This paper outlines the protocol for our study which aims to test an anticipatory guidance approach.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>750 families from four Local Government Areas in Melbourne, Australia have been randomised to receive the <it>Baby Business </it>program (intervention group) or usual care (control group) offered by health services. The <it>Baby Business </it>program provides parents with information about infant sleep and crying via a DVD and booklet (mailed soon after birth), telephone consultation (at infant age 6-8 weeks) and parent group session (at infant age 12 weeks). All English speaking parents of healthy newborn infants born at > 32 weeks gestation and referred by their maternal and child health nurse at their first post partum home visit (day 7-10 postpartum), are eligible. The primary outcome is parent report of infant night time sleep as a problem at four months of age and secondary outcomes include parent report of infant daytime sleep or crying as a problem, mean duration of infant sleep and crying/24 hours, parental depression symptoms, parent sleep quality and quantity and health service use. Data will be collected at two weeks (baseline), four months and six months of age. An economic evaluation using a cost-consequences approach will, from a societal perspective, compare costs and health outcomes between the intervention and control groups.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>To our knowledge this is the first randomised controlled trial of a program which aims to prevent both infant sleeping and crying problems and associated postnatal depression symptoms. If effective, it could offer an important public health prevention approach to these common, distressing problems.</p> <p>Trial registration number</p> <p>ISRCTN: <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN63834603">ISRCTN63834603</a></p

Hair analysis following chronic smoked-drugs-of-abuse exposure in adults and their toddler: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Over the past two decades, the study of chronic cocaine and crack cocaine exposure in the pediatric population has been focused on the potential adverse effects, especially in the prenatal period and early childhood. Non-invasive biological matrices have become an essential tool for the assessment of a long-term history of drug of abuse exposure.</p> <p>Case report</p> <p>We analyze the significance of different biomarker values in hair after chronic crack exposure in a two-year-old Caucasian girl and her parents, who are self-reported crack smokers. The level of benzoylecgonine, the principal metabolite of cocaine, was determined in segmented hair samples (0 cm to 3 cm from the scalp, and > 3 cm from the scalp) following washing to exclude external contamination. Benzoylecgonine was detectable in high concentrations in the child's hair, at 1.9 ng/mg and 7.04 ng/mg, respectively. Benzoylecgonine was also present in the maternal and paternal hair samples at 7.88 ng/mg and 6.39 ng/mg, and 13.06 ng/mg and 12.97 ng/mg, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Based on the data from this case and from previously published poisoning cases, as well as on the experience of our research group, we conclude that, using similar matrices for the study of chronic drug exposure, children present with a higher cocaine concentration in hair and they experience more serious deleterious acute effects, probably due to a different and slower cocaine metabolism. Consequently, children must be not exposed to secondhand crack smoke under any circumstance.</p

Influence of soil water content and atmospheric conditions on leaf water potential in cv. "Touriga Nacional" deep-rooted vineyards

Abstract In this study, the influence of soil and atmosphere conditions on noon and basal leaf water potential of vines ‘‘Touriga Nacional’’ in the Da˜o region submitted to different irrigation treatments is analysed. Both indicators showed to be dependent on environmental conditions at the time of measurement. Leaf water potential at noon of fully watered plants was linearly related with atmospheric conditions, with values registered when vapour pressure deficit (VPD) was higher than approximately 3 kPa being no different from the values registered in stressed plants. Therefore, this indicator cannot be reliably used to distinguish different plant water stress levels when atmospheric conditions induce high evaporative demands. The basal leaf water potential (wb) was also influenced by VPD at the time of measurement for all soil water conditions. In well irrigated plants, it was even possible to establish a baseline that can therefore be used to identify nonwater stressed conditions (wb (MPa) = -0.062–0.0972 VPD (kPa), r2 = 0.78). A good correlation was found between soil humidity and wb. However, more than the average value of the whole thickness of soil monitored, the wb values were dependent on the distribution of soil humidity, with the plants responding to the presence of wet layers

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Predictors of problem drinking in adolescence and young adulthood. A longitudinal twin-family study

We examined drinking behavior of parents, siblings, and friends of twins as predictors of adolescent and young adult problem drinking over a period of 2 and a period of 7 years. Data of 12 to 30-year-old twins and their family members from the Netherlands Twin Register were analyzed. Problem drinking in twins was assessed in 1995 and 2000 and was defined based on the CAGE and amount of drinking. Data on alcohol use of parents, siblings and friends were collected in 1993. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to examine the short-term (1993-1995; n = 2,994) and the long-term longitudinal predictors (1993-2000; n = 1,796) of problem drinking. Age, sex and own alcohol use in 1993 explained 25% of the variance in adolescent and young adult problem drinking. Moreover, adolescents and young adults with fathers who drank frequently and with a large numbers of drinking friends, were at the highest risk for problem drinking 2 years later. Over a period of 7 years the number of drinking friends was no longer a risk factor, but few times a week or daily alcohol use of fathers remained a risk factor for later problem drinking. Drinking behavior of mother and siblings did not substantially predict problem drinking. Sex and age did not moderate these effect