Dampak Kebijakan Nonkehutanan pada Deforestasi dan Kemiskinan di Kalimantan Timur: Sebuah Analisis Berbasis Agen

This paper aims to analyze the impact of non-forestry policy, especially energy related macro policy decisions, on poverty and use levels of natural resources. As core indicators, this analysis employs ‘number of households below the poverty line’ and ‘area of deforestation’. Impacts are analyzed in an agent-based simulation model for 6 districts of East Kalimantan, one of the Indonesian natural-resource rich provinces on the Island of Borneo. Simulation results partly suggest that the policy decision of June 2008-politically known as decreasing fuel price-had nearly no impact on deforestation amplifying that the dominating driver of deforestation is large scale logging and mining operations, as well as potentially illegal activities. While, it reduced the number of poor people-those mostly living within and around forest area-by about 5.4%. Due to seasonal income, this policy-related impact is likely to be periodically lower. During the harvest related period, many households are able to lift their income above the poverty line. This seasonal fluctuation in poverty could help optimize public funding by spreading it over longer periods and by pausing direct transfers during such natural periods of poverty reduction. There is no significant implication for forestry or forest management since the model could only deal with small scale forestry

Farm types and farmer motivations to adapt:Implications for design of sustainable agricultural interventions in the rubber plantations of South West China

Tropical land use is one of the leading causes of global environmental change. Sustainable agricultural development aims to reduce the negative environmental impacts of tropical land use whilst enhancing the well-being of the smallholder farmers residing in those areas. Interventions with this goal are typically designed by scientists educated in the Western tradition, and often achieve lower than desired uptake by smallholder farmers. We build on work done in farm type classification and studies of factors that influence adaptation, trialling a suite of household survey questions to elucidate the motivational factors that influence a farmer's willingness to adapt to external change. Based on a sample of 1015 households in the rubber growing region of Xishuangbanna, South-west China, we found that farm types based on structural characteristics (e.g. crops, livelihoods) could not be used to accurately predict farmers' motivations to adapt. Amongst all six farm types identified, the full range of motivational typologies was found. We found six motivational types, from most to least likely to adapt, named: Aspirational Innovators, Conscientious, Copy Cats, Incentive-centric, Well Settled, and Change Resistant. These groups roughly corresponded with those identified in literature regarding diffusion of innovations, but such classifications are rarely used in development literature. We predict that only one third of the population would be potentially willing to trial a new intervention, and recommend that those sectors of the population should be identified and preferentially targeted by development programs. Such an approach requires validation that these motivational typologies accurately predict real behaviour – perhaps through a panel survey approach. Dedicated data gathering is required, beyond what is usually carried out for ex-ante farm typologies, but with some refinements of the methodology presented here the process need not be onerous. An improved suite of questions to appraise farmers' motivations might include value orientations, life satisfaction, and responses to various scenarios, all phrased to be locally appropriate, with a scoring system that uses the full range of potential scores and a minimum of follow up and peripheral questions

Adapting Rules for Sustainable Resource Use

289 hlm; Peta; Table; Ilust; Kurv

Sustainable resource use : institutional dynamics and economics /

Discusses institutional diversity and contextual change, followed by the analysis of institutional misfit, with a strong focus on the long-term impacts of colonial structures in the Asia-Pacific region

Understanding variability in adaptive capacity on rangelands

The art and science of developing effective policies and practices to enhance sustainability and adapt to new climate conditions on rangelands and savannas are typically founded on addressing the "average" or "typical" resource user. However, this assumption is flawed since it does not appreciate the extent of diversity among resource users; it risks that strategies will be irrelevant for many people and ignored, and that the grazing resource itself will remain unprotected. Understanding social heterogeneity is vital for effective natural resource management. Our aim was to understand the extent to which graziers in the northern Australian rangelands varied in their capacity to adapt to climate variability and recommended practices. Adaptive capacity was assessed according to four dimensions: 1) the perception of risk, 2) skills in planning, learning and reorganising, 3) financial and emotional flexibility, and 4) interest in adapting. We conducted 100 face-to-face interviews with graziers in their homes obtaining a 97% response rate. Of the 16 possible combinations that the four dimensions represent, we observed that all combinations were present in the Burdekin. Any single initiative to address grazing land management practices in the region is unlikely to address the needs of all graziers. Rather, policies could be tailored to type-specific needs based on adaptive capacity. Efforts to shift graziers from very low, low, or moderate levels of adaptive capacity are urgently needed. We suggest some strategies

MODELING ENDOGENOUS RULE CHANGES IN AN INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT: THE ADICO SEQUENCE

Agent-based modeling is being increasingly used to simulate socio-techno-ecosystems that involve social dynamics. Humans face constraints that they sometimes wish to challenge, and when they do so, they often trigger changes at the scale of the social group too. Including such adaptation dynamics explicitly in our models would allow simulation of the endogenous emergence of rule changes. This paper discusses such an approach in an institutional framework and develops a sequence that allows modeling of endogenous rule changes. Parts of this sequence are implemented in a NetLogo KISS model to provide some illustrative results.Endogenous rule change, norm, institution, agent-based modeling, simulation, emergence