Projecting global mean sea-level change using CMIP6 models

The effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) has increased relative to CMIP5. We explore the implications of this for global mean sea‐level (GMSL) change projections in 2100 for three emissions scenarios. CMIP6 projections of global surface air temperature are substantially higher than in CMIP5, but projections of global mean thermal expansion are not. Using these projections as input to construct projections of GMSL change with IPCC AR5 methods, the 95th percentile of GMSL change at 2100 only increases by 3‐7 cm. Projected rates of GMSL rise around 2100 increase more strongly, though, implying more pronounced differences beyond 2100 and greater committed sea‐level rise. Inter‐model differences in GMSL projections indicate that EffCS‐based model selection may substantially alter the ensemble projections. GMSL change in 2100 is accurately predicted by time‐integrated temperature change, and thus requires reducing emissions early to be mitigated

The evolution of 21st century sea-level projections from IPCC AR5 to AR6 and beyond

Sea-level science has seen many recent developments in observations and modelling of the different contributions and the total mean sea-level change. In this overview, we discuss (1) the evolution of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections, (2) how the projections compare to observations and (3) the outlook for further improving projections. We start by discussing how the model projections of 21st century sea-level change have changed from the IPCC AR5 report (2013) to SROCC (2019) and AR6 (2021), highlighting similarities and differences in the methodologies and comparing the global mean and regional projections. This shows that there is good agreement in the median values, but also highlights some differences. In addition, we discuss how the different reports included high-end projections. We then show how the AR5 projections (from 2007 onwards) compare against the observations and find that they are highly consistent with each other. Finally, we discuss how to further improve sea-level projections using high-resolution ocean modelling and recent vertical land motion estimates

Long-Term Morbidity and Health After Early Menopause Due to Oophorectomy in Women at Increased Risk of Ovarian Cancer:Protocol for a Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study With Prospective Follow-Up (HARMOny Study)

Background: BRCA1/2 mutation carriers are recommended to undergo risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) at 35 to 45 years of age. RRSO substantially decreases ovarian cancer risk, but at the cost of immediate menopause. Knowledge about the potential adverse effects of premenopausal RRSO, such as increased risk of cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, cognitive dysfunction, and reduced health-related quality of life (HRQoL), is limited. Objective: The aim of this study is to assess the long-term health effects of premenopausal RRSO on cardiovascular disease, bone health, cognitive functioning, urological complaints, sexual functioning, and HRQoL in women with high familial risk of breast or ovarian cancer. Methods: We will conduct a multicenter cross-sectional study with prospective follow-up, nested in a nationwide cohort of women at high familial risk of breast or ovarian cancer. A total of 500 women who have undergone RRSO before 45 years of age, with a follow-up period of at least 10 years, will be compared with 250 women (frequency matched on current age) who have not undergone RRSO or who have undergone RRSO at over 55 years of age. Participants will complete an online questionnaire on lifestyle, medical history, cardiovascular risk factors, osteoporosis, cognitive function, urological complaints, and HRQoL. A full cardiovascular assessment and assessment of bone mineral density will be performed. Blood samples will be obtained for marker analysis. Cognitive functioning will be assessed objectively with an online neuropsychological test battery. Results: This study was approved by the institutional review board in July 2018. In February 2019, we included our first participant. As of November 2020, we had enrolled 364 participants in our study. Conclusions: Knowledge from this study will contribute to counseling women with a high familial risk of breast/ovarian cancer about the long-term health effects of premenopausal RRSO. The results can also be used to offer health recommendations after RRSO

Long-term morbidity and health after early menopause due to oophorectomy in women at increased risk of ovarian cancer: Protocol for a nationwide cross-sectional study with prospective follow-up (HARMOny Study)

Background: BRCA1/2 mutation carriers are recommended to undergo risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) at 35 to 45 years of age. RRSO substantially decreases ovarian cancer risk, but at the cost of immediate menopause. Knowledge about the potential adverse effects of premenopausal RRSO, such as increased risk of cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, cognitive dysfunction, and reduced health-related quality of life (HRQoL), is limited. Objective: The aim of this study is to assess the long-term health effects of premenopausal RRSO on cardiovascular disease, bone health, cognitive functioning, urological complaints, sexual functioning, and HRQoL in women with high familial risk of breast or ovarian cancer. Methods: We will conduct a multicenter cross-sectional study with prospective follow-up, nested in a nationwide cohort of women at high familial risk of breast or ovarian cancer. A total of 500 women who have undergone RRSO before 45 years of age, with a follow-up period of at least 10 years, will be compared with 250 women (frequency matched on current age) who have not undergone RRSO or who have undergone RRSO at over 55 years of age. Participants will complete an online questionnaire on lifestyle, medical history, cardiovascular risk factors, osteoporosis, cognitive function, urological complaints, and HRQoL. A full cardiovascular assessment and assessment of bone mineral density will be performed. Blood samples will be obtained for marker analysis. Cognitive functioning will be assessed objectively with an online neuropsychological test battery. Results: This study was approved by the institutional review board in July 2018. In February 2019, we included our first participant. As of November 2020, we had enrolled 364 participants in our study. Conclusions: Knowledge from this study will contribute to counseling women with a high familial risk of breast/ovarian cancer about the long-term health effects of premenopausal RRSO. The results can also be used to offer health recommendations after RRSO

IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

This Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) summarises the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. It integrates the main findings of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) based on contributions from the three Working Groups1 , and the three Special Reports. The summary for Policymakers (SPM) is structured in three parts: SPM.A Current Status and Trends, SPM.B Future Climate Change, Risks, and Long-Term Responses, and SPM.C Responses in the Near Term.This report recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies; the value of diverse forms of knowledge; and the close linkages between climate change adaptation, mitigation, ecosystem health, human well-being and sustainable development, and reflects the increasing diversity of actors involved in climate action. Based on scientific understanding, key findings can be formulated as statements of fact or associated with an assessed level of confidence using the IPCC calibrated language

Summation of supraharmonic currents (2–150 kHz) from EV fast charging stations

This paper presents the outcomes of a study of the summation of supraharmonic (SH) currents from electric vehicle fast-charging stations (FCS), based on a field measurement in an installation with four 350 kW FCSs. FCSs can contribute to SH emission, between 2 and 150 kHz, in the network and their impact on the grid is quantified by the summation of SH components. Little is known about the summation of SHs in an installation with a power of hundreds of kW, therefore this article aims to contribute to the understanding of the SH current emission and their summation in practice. The results show that the total SH current from the installation increases with the number of active chargers, but not monotonous and that the emission is not constant over time. A diversity factor is proposed and the relation between total and summed current is analyzed to provide further insight into the role of absorption by other chargers. The findings are a step towards modeling the SH summation for FCSs and other installations with large power-electronic devices