How large is the housing wealth effect? : a new approach

This paper presents a simple new method for estimating the size of ‘wealth effects’ on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the well-documented sluggishness of consumption growth (often interpreted as ‘habits’ in the asset pricing literature) to distinguish between short-run and long-run wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next-quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a $1 change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final long-run effect around 9 cents. Consistent with several recent studies, we find a housing wealth effect that is substantially larger than the stock wealth effect. We believe that our approach is preferable to the currently popular cointegrationbased estimation methods, because neither theory nor evidence justifies faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector. JEL Classification: E21, E32, C2

International evidence on sticky consumption growth

We estimate the degree of 'stickiness' in aggregate consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits) for thirteen advanced economies. We find that, after controlling for measurement error, consumption growth has a high degree of autocorrelation, with a stickiness parameter of about 0.7 on average across countries. The sticky-consumption-growth model outperforms the random walk model of Hall (1978), and typically fits the data better than the popular Campbell and Mankiw (1989) model. In several countries, the sticky-consumption-growth and Campbell-Mankiw models work about equally well

How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach

This paper presents a simple new method for estimating the size of ‘wealth effects?on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the well-documented sluggishness of consumption growth (often interpreted as ‘habits?in the asset pricing literature) to distinguish between short-run and long-run wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next-quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a $1 change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final longrun effect around 9 cents. Consistent with most recent studies, we find a housing wealth effect that is substantially larger than the stock wealth effect. We believe that our approach has sounder theoretical foundations than the currently popular cointegration-based estimation methods, because neither theory nor evidence provides any reason for faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector.

How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach

This paper presents a simple new method for estimating the size of 'wealth effects' on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the well-documented sluggishness of consumption growth (often interpreted as 'habits' in the asset pricing literature) to distinguish between short-run and long-run wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next-quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a $1 change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final long-run effect around 9 cents. Consistent with several recent studies, we find a housing wealth effect that is substantially larger than the stock wealth effect. We believe that our approach is preferable to the currently popular cointegration- based estimation methods, because neither theory nor evidence justifies faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector.

International Evidence On Sticky Consumption Growth

We estimate the degree of ‘stickiness’ in aggregate consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits) for thirteen advanced economies. We find that, after controlling for measurement error, consumption growth has a high degree of autocorrelation, with a stickiness parameter of about 0.7 on average across countries. The sticky-consumption-growth model outperforms the random walk model of Hall (1978), and typically fits the data better than the popular Campbell and Mankiw (1989) model. In several countries, the sticky-consumption-growth and Campbell-Mankiw models work about equally well.Sticky Expectations, Consumption Dynamics, Habit Formation.

European inflation expectations dynamics

This paper investigates the relevance of the sticky information model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) and Carroll (2003) for four major European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). As opposed to the benchmark rational expectation models, households in the sticky information environment update their expectations sporadically rather than instantaneously owing to the costs of acquiring and processing information. We estimate two alternative parametrizations of the sticky information model which differ in the stationarity assumptions about the underlying series. Using survey data on households? and experts? inflation expectations, we find that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations. Both parametrizations imply comparable speeds of information updating for the European households as was previously found in the US, on average roughly once a year. --Inflation,expectations,sticky information,inflation persistence

Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence

We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model ofMankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, in Italy about once each six months.Inflation expectations, sticky information, Phillips curve, inflation persistence

The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations

We investigate the relevance of the Carroll’s sticky information model of inflation expectations for four major European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). Using survey data on household and expert inflation expectations we argue that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations. We estimate two alternative parametrizations of the sticky information model which differ in the stationarity assumptions about the underlying series. Our baseline stationary estimation suggests that the average frequency of information updating for the European households is roughly once in 18 months. The vector error-correction model implies households update information about once a year.Inflation expectations, sticky information, inflation persistence

Price convergence in the enlarged internal market

The studies' main aim is to investigate the effects of the EU-10 enlargement on price convergence within the Internal Market. It distinguishes between the opposite forces provided by: (1) the catching up effect of the EU-10, expected to lead to a rise in price levels; and (2) increased competitiveness pressure on prices expected to lower price levels due to lower mark ups of prices over marginal costs. The study is based on comparative price levels for the EU-25, covering the period 1999-2004. Distinct variables were identified as proxies for the catching-up and competition forces. The following analysis proceeded in two steps. First, it is examined whether price convergence has occurred and, second, what are its main drivers. The results confirm the presence of price convergence. This process is particularly visible in the case of basic headings, most likely because they are related to more homogeneous products. Moreover, both catching up and competition have been important factors for explaining price convergence. In addition, both effects seem to be more pronounced for the EU-10 than for the EU-15.EU enlargement, Internal Market, price convergence, Balassa Samuelson effect, competition, Dreger, Kholodilin, Lommatzsch, Slacalek, Wozniak

Makroökonomische Bedingungen für die Rückkehr zur Vollbeschäftigung: Plädoyer für einen mehrdimensionalen Ansatz

Das Papier untersucht die makroökonomischen Determinanten der Arbeitslosigkeit. Dabei werden die Argumente neoklassisch-monetaristischer, neukeynesianischer und postkeynesianischer Provinienz auf ihren Gehalt sowohl theoretisch wie empirisch überprüft. Das Hauptgewicht der Analyse wird auf die Interaktion von Institutionen, Schocks und Makropolitik gelegt. Ausgehend von den Politikoptionen in dem einheitlichen Währungsraum der EWU-Mitgliedsländer, wird für einen mehrdimensionalen Ansatz der Wirtschaftspolitik plädiert: Angebotsseitige Maßnahmen (Lohnnebenkostensenkung, Gütermarktreformen) sollten durch eine expansivere Geld- und Fiskalpolitik begleitet werden, wobei eine europäisch koordinierte Lohnpolitik flankierend notwendig wäre.Unemployment, institutions, supply side economics, demand management, monetary policy, fiscal policy, wage policy