METHODICAL APPROACH TO THE EVALUATION OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN OIL PRODUCTION IN CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY AND RISKS

Development of oilfield is a long term capital-intensive investment project, which is characterized by incomplete and inaccurate information about conditions of its realization. Efficiency evaluation of license area development is impossible without accounting uncertainty associated with oil production. The article analyzes the current state of the Russian oil industry, highlights the main risks affecting the activities of oil companies. Classification of risks in the qualitative and quantitative characteristics is suggested. Methods of economic efficiency evaluation of investments in oil field development in new production regions are considered, the expediency of the fuzzy set theory application is shown. The task of expert systems building for efficiency evaluation of oil field development in terms of uncertainty in risks by investor is actualized. Scheme of an expert system for efficiency evaluation of oil field development using elements of theory of fuzzy sets is proposed