Alternate Hedge Ratios for Bonds Subject to Credit Risk

To date there is no satisfactory way to measure and control interest rate risk for bonds subject to high levels of credit risk. In addressing this gap, this work develops the survival measure, a new measure of interest rate sensitivity for corporate bonds. The survival measure leads to the development of nine alternate hedge ratios, seven of which are new. Considerable variations in the size of alternate hedge ratios are observed, including some that are consistently larger and in use. This suggest that improvements in hedging strategies may be available, depending on whether credit risky bonds have a consistently greater (less) response to a change in the level of interest rate than suggested by the Macaulay duration based hedge ratio

Alternate Hedge Ratios for Bonds Subject to Credit Risk

To date there is no satisfactory way to measure and control interest rate risk for bonds subject to high levels of credit risk. In addressing this gap, this work develops the survival measure, a new measure of interest rate sensitivity for corporate bonds. The survival measure leads to the development of nine alternate hedge ratios, seven of which are new. Considerable variations in the size of alternate hedge ratios are observed, including some that are consistently larger and in use. This suggest that improvements in hedging strategies may be available, depending on whether credit risky bonds have a consistently greater (less) response to a change in the level of interest rate than suggested by the Macaulay duration based hedge ratio

NICMOS Observations of the Pre-Main-Sequence Planetary Debris System HD 98800

Spectral energy distributions (SEDs) from 0.4 to 4.7 microns are presented for the two principal stellar components of HD~98800, A and B. The third major component, an extensive planetary debris system (PDS), emits > 20% of the luminosity of star B in a blackbody SED at 164 +/- 5K extending from mid-IR to millimeter-wavelengths. At 0.95 microns a preliminary upper limit of < 0.06 is obtained for the ratio of reflected light to the total from star B. This result limits the albedo of the PDS to < 0.3. Values are presented for the temperature, luminosity, and radius of each major systemic component. Remarkable similarities are found between the PDS and the interplanetary debris system around the Sun as it could have appeared a few million years after its formation.Comment: LaTeX, 9 pages with 1 encapsulated postscript figure and one specially formatted Table which is rendered as a postscript file and included as a figure. Accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal Letter

Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach: An Application on the Connectedness between Bitcoin Returns and the Other Ten Most Relevant Cryptocurrency Returns

This article examines the connectedness between Bitcoin returns and returns of ten additional cryptocurrencies for several frequencies—daily, weekly, and monthly—over the period January 2015–March 2020 using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach. We find important and positive interdependencies among cryptocurrencies and significant long-run relationships among most of them. In addition, non-Bitcoin cryptocurrency returns seem to react in the same way to positive and negative changes in Bitcoin returns, obtaining strong evidence of asymmetry in the short run. Finally, our results show high persistence in the impact of both positive and negative changes in Bitcoin returns on most of the other cryptocurrency returns. Thus, our model explains about 50% of the other cryptocurrency returns with changes in Bitcoin returns

Bridging Time Scales in Cellular Decision Making with a Stochastic Bistable Switch

Cellular transformations which involve a significant phenotypical change of the cell's state use bistable biochemical switches as underlying decision systems. In this work, we aim at linking cellular decisions taking place on a time scale of years to decades with the biochemical dynamics in signal transduction and gene regulation, occuring on a time scale of minutes to hours. We show that a stochastic bistable switch forms a viable biochemical mechanism to implement decision processes on long time scales. As a case study, the mechanism is applied to model the initiation of follicle growth in mammalian ovaries, where the physiological time scale of follicle pool depletion is on the order of the organism's lifespan. We construct a simple mathematical model for this process based on experimental evidence for the involved genetic mechanisms. Despite the underlying stochasticity, the proposed mechanism turns out to yield reliable behavior in large populations of cells subject to the considered decision process. Our model explains how the physiological time constant may emerge from the intrinsic stochasticity of the underlying gene regulatory network. Apart from ovarian follicles, the proposed mechanism may also be of relevance for other physiological systems where cells take binary decisions over a long time scale.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure

Increasing confidence and changing behaviors in primary care providers engaged in genetic counselling.

BackgroundScreening and counseling for genetic conditions is an increasingly important part of primary care practice, particularly given the paucity of genetic counselors in the United States. However, primary care physicians (PCPs) often have an inadequate understanding of evidence-based screening; communication approaches that encourage shared decision-making; ethical, legal, and social implication (ELSI) issues related to screening for genetic mutations; and the basics of clinical genetics. This study explored whether an interactive, web-based genetics curriculum directed at PCPs in non-academic primary care settings was superior at changing practice knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors when compared to a traditional educational approach, particularly when discussing common genetic conditions.MethodsOne hundred twenty one PCPs in California and Pennsylvania physician practices were randomized to either an Intervention Group (IG) or Control Group (CG). IG physicians completed a 6 h interactive web-based curriculum covering communication skills, basics of genetic testing, risk assessment, ELSI issues and practice behaviors. CG physicians were provided with a traditional approach to Continuing Medical Education (CME) (clinical review articles) offering equivalent information.ResultsPCPs in the Intervention Group showed greater increases in knowledge compared to the Control Group. Intervention PCPs were also more satisfied with the educational materials, and more confident in their genetics knowledge and skills compared to those receiving traditional CME materials. Intervention PCPs felt that the web-based curriculum covered medical management, genetics, and ELSI issues significantly better than did the Control Group, and in comparison with traditional curricula. The Intervention Group felt the online tools offered several advantages, and engaged in better shared decision making with standardized patients, however, there was no difference in behavior change between groups with regard to increases in ELSI discussions between PCPs and patients.ConclusionWhile our intervention was deemed more enjoyable, demonstrated significant factual learning and retention, and increased shared decision making practices, there were few differences in behavior changes around ELSI discussions. Unfortunately, barriers to implementing behavior change in clinical genetics is not unique to our intervention. Perhaps the missing element is that busy physicians need systems-level support to engage in meaningful discussions around genetics issues. The next step in promoting active engagement between doctors and patients may be to put into place the tools needed for PCPs to easily access the materials they need at the point-of-care to engage in joint discussions around clinical genetics

Prior human papillomavirus‐16/18 AS04‐adjuvanted vaccination prevents recurrent high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia after definitive surgical therapy: Post‐hoc analysis from a randomized controlled trial

We evaluated the efficacy of the human papillomavirus (HPV)−16/18 AS04‐adjuvanted vaccine in preventing HPV‐related disease after surgery for cervical lesions in a post‐hoc analysis of the PApilloma TRIal against Cancer In young Adults (PATRICIA; NCT00122681). Healthy women aged 15–25 years were randomized (1:1) to receive vaccine or control at months 0, 1 and 6 and followed for 4 years. Women were enrolled regardless of their baseline HPV DNA status, HPV‐16/18 serostatus, or cytology, but excluded if they had previous or planned colposcopy. The primary and secondary endpoints of PATRICIA have been reported previously; the present post‐hoc analysis evaluated efficacy in a subset of women who underwent an excisional procedure for cervical lesions after vaccination. The main outcome was the incidence of subsequent HPV‐related cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or greater (CIN2+) 60 days or more post‐surgery. Other outcomes included the incidence of HPV‐related CIN1+, and vulvar or vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN/VaIN) 60 days or more post‐surgery. Of the total vaccinated cohort of 18,644 women (vaccine = 9,319; control = 9,325), 454 (vaccine = 190, control = 264) underwent an excisional procedure during the trial. Efficacy 60 days or more post‐surgery for a first lesion, irrespective of HPV DNA results, was 88.2% (95% CI: 14.8, 99.7) against CIN2+ and 42.6% (−21.1, 74.1) against CIN1+. No VIN was reported and one woman in each group had VaIN2+ 60 days or more post‐surgery. Women who undergo surgical therapy for cervical lesions after vaccination with the HPV‐16/18 vaccine may continue to benefit from vaccination, with a reduced risk of developing subsequent CIN2+.139122812282

Natural history of progression of HPV infection to cervical lesion or clearance: analysis of the control arm of the large, randomised PATRICIA study

Background: The control arm of PATRICIA (PApillomaTRIal against Cancer In young Adults, NCT00122681) was used to investigate the risk of progression from cervical HPV infection to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) or clearance of infection, and associated determinants. Methods and Findings: Women aged 15-25 years were enrolled. A 6-month persistent HPV infection (6MPI) was defined as detection of the same HPV type at two consecutive evaluations over 6 months and clearance as ≥2 type-specific HPV negative samples taken at two consecutive intervals of approximately 6 months following a positive sample. The primary endpoint was CIN grade 2 or greater (CIN2+) associated with the same HPV type as a 6MPI. Secondary endpoints were CIN1+/CIN3+ associated with the same HPV type as a 6MPI; CIN1+/CIN2+/CIN3+ associated with an infection of any duration; and clearance of infection. The analyses included 4825 women with 16,785 infections (3363 womenwith 6902 6MPIs). Risk of developing a CIN1+/CIN2+/CIN3+ associated with same HPV type as a 6MPI varied with HPV type and was significantly higher for oncogenic versus non-oncogenic types. Hazard ratios for development of CIN2+ were 10.44 (95% CI: 6.96-15.65), 9.65 (5.97-15.60), 5.68 (3.50-9.21), 5.38 (2.87-10.06) and 3.87 (2.38-6.30) for HPV-16, HPV-33, HPV-31, HPV-45 and HPV-18, respectively. HPV-16 or HPV-33 6MPIs had ~25-fold higher risk for progression to CIN3+. Previous or concomitant HPV infection or CIN1+ associated with a different HPV type increased risk. Of the different oncogenic HPV types, HPV-16 and HPV-31 infections were least likely to clear. Conclusions: Cervical infections with oncogenic HPV types increased the risk of CIN2+ and CIN3+. Previous or concomitant infection or CIN1+ also increased the risk. HPV-16 and HPV-33 have by far the highest risk of progression to CIN3+, and HPV-16 and HPV-31 have the lowest chance of clearance

Psychological Flexibility, ACT, and Organizational Behavior

This paper offers organizational behavior management (OBM) a behavior analytically consistent way to expand its analysis of, and methods for changing, organizational behavior. It shows how Relational Frame Theory (RFT) suggests that common, problematic, psychological processes emerge from language itself, and they produce psychological inflexibility. Research suggests that an applied extension of RFT, Acceptance and Commitment Therapy, has led to new interventions that increase psychological flexibility and, thereby enhance, organizational behavior and health

Seasonality of MRSA Infections

Using MRSA isolates submitted to our hospital microbiology laboratory January 2001–March 2010 and the number of our emergency department (ED) visits, quarterly community-associated (CA) and hospital-associated (HA) MRSA infections were modeled using Poisson regressions. For pediatric patients, approximately 1.85x (95% CI 1.45x–2.36x, adj. p<0.0001) as many CA-MRSA infections per ED visit occurred in the second two quarters as occurred in the first two quarters. For adult patients, 1.14x (95% CI 1.01x–1.29x, adj.p = 0.03) as many infections per ED visit occurred in the second two quarters as in the first two quarters. Approximately 2.94x (95% CI 1.39x–6.21x, adj.p = 0.015) as many HA-MRSA infections per hospital admission occurred in the second two quarters as occurred in the first two quarters for pediatric patients. No seasonal variation was observed among adult HA-MRSA infections per hospital admission. We demonstrated seasonality of MRSA infections and provide a summary table of similar observations in other studies