A Real Options Perspective on R&D Portfolio Diversification

This paper shows that the presence of conditional staging in R&D (Research & Development) has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and changes diversification arguments when a portfolio is constructed. When R&D projects exhibit option-like characteristics, correlation between projects plays a more complicated role than traditional portfolio diversification would suggest. Real option theory argues that research projects with conditional phases have option-like risk and return properties, and are different from unconditional projects. We show that although the risk of a portfolio always depends on the correlation between projects, a portfolio of conditional R&D projects with real option characteristics has fundamentally different risk than a portfolio of unconditional projects. When conditional R&D projects are negatively correlated, portfolio risk is hardly reduced by diversification. When projects are positively correlated, however, diversification is more effective than these tools predict

The real effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy:Evidence from administrative household-level data

We analyze the effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy at the household level. We exploit administrative Dutch tax and housing records in conjunction with the introduction of a mortgage loan-to-value (LTV) limit. We find that the regulation sharply reduces mortgage leverage with bunching at the LTV limit. While (regulation) affected households reduce total leverage and interest expenses, they also decrease cash balances to satisfy the LTV limit, generating an important solvency-liquidity trade-off. Nevertheless, affected households experience less financial distress after the introduction of the LTV regulation. Moreover, these households experience better liquidity management and smoother consumption following income loss. Overall, our results highlight the key financial stability and real effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy.</p

Preoperative breast MRI in management of patients with needle biopsy-proven ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS)

Background: In 20e25% of patients with biopsy-proven DCIS underestimation occurs. Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is offered to patients with biopsy-proven ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and a high risk of occult invasive cancer. However, assessment of high risk is controversial. We aimed to improve selection of patients for SLNB with preoperative breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Methods: In this prospective observational study, MRI was offered to all subsequent patients with a biopsy-

Inside Debt and Bank Risk

Inside debt compensation held by top officers of U.S. banks is negatively related to risk and risk taking. The evidence reveals a robust and strongly negative relation between endof- 2006 inside debt and 2007–2009 bank-specific risk exposures in terms of lost stock market value, volatility, tail risk, and the probability of financial distress. Banks with managers having large inside debt holdings are also characterized by better-quality assets, more conservative balance sheet management, and a stronger tendency toward traditional banking activities. The results suggest that debt-based compensation limits bank risk and risk taking by encouraging more conservative decision making